Net worth: H$1,000
Guest:Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's virtual currency, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
PoliticsSportEntertainmentWorldBusinessTechnologyScienceGeneral

Will it be reported that the Hugo Chavez Government in Venezuela is bankrupt before 2010?

Settled as Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported

They're reportedly getting close, but they're not there yet...

Background:

Background: Venezuela generates most of it's revenue by exporting oil. Since the price of oil has been falling, this has had a direct impact on their income.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/18/AR2008101801860.html?hpid=topnews

From the article:
Robert Bottome, editor of Veneconomia, a Caracas business newsletter, said that if the price continues to fall, Chávez's populist government will face economic turmoil.

"The common perception is that the Venezuelan government goes bankrupt," he said, "that they cannot meet their obligations."

Chávez has said that such prognostications are wishful thinking generated by his foes and that Venezuela, with $40 billion in Central Bank reserves, will ride out the storm. He is among the leaders in OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, who will attend an emergency meeting Friday that could lead to a production cut to boost prices.

Other background links at http://venezuela.notablenotices.com/

Category Editor Clarification
The question specifically states whether the Hugo Chavez government will be bankrupt by the end of the year. So, the first two options relation to a situation in which Chavez is in power, while the third option relates to any situation where Chavez is not in power. The last option will be the settlement if Chavez is no longer president, for any reason, before the end of 2009 AND before any announcement of bankruptcy. If there is an announcement that Chavez will no longer be president - which precedes the actual occurrence of him stepping down as president - the question will remain open until the date he actually steps down.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Venezuelan government bankruptcy reported
0%
Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported
99%
Hugo Chavez is no longer president of Venezuela
0%
Settled as Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported on Sat 2nd Jan 2:09pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 2nd Jan 2:09pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Venezuelan government bankruptcy reported: 30%, Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported: 65%, Hugo Chavez is no longer president of Venezuela: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 21st Oct 2008 7:04pm PST by notablenotices[Power User]
Suspended Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 2nd Jan 9:47am PST by mungo10: Bankruptcy not reported - http://news.yahoo.com/topics/venezuela
Settled as 'Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported' Sat 2nd Jan 2:09pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: They're reportedly getting close, but they're not there yet...

Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 2nd Jan 2:09pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (51)

14 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported (H$2,000 at 93%)
19 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported (H$100 at 91%)
20 weeks ago
ozarkguy predicted Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported (H$160 at 91%)
22 weeks ago
carpet predicted Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported (H$1,000 at 89%)
36 weeks ago
ozgurisil predicted Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported (H$100 at 83%)

Comments (17)

Has anyone ever read "The life of an economic hitman?" This is one of the fictional things he was talking about!
posted 1 year ago
Venezuela Postpones Budget Cuts Until After Referendum on Chavez' Indefinite Re-Election
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=322543&CategoryId=10718

Budget uses a $60 barrel of oil price, when the current price for the Venezuelan oil basket is little more than half that at $34.49. Missions to be quietly cut back -- but not until after the vote.

See the question about the vote here: http://www.hubdub.com/m24040/Will_Hugo_Chavez_stay_in_office_as_long_he_keeps_winning_elections
posted 1 year ago
Venezuela faces racing inflation, slowing growth

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iIXmfBNJajSjTSALM0NN3kO2JB2QD95JUGUG0

Analysts predict Venezuela's economy is headed for a worse year than the government admits, as falling oil prices stall growth and inflation soars in the import-dependent country.

Venezuela saw growth of 4.8 percent in 2008 — down nearly half from 8.4 percent in 2007 — as its economy began to cool after expanding rapidly for years and as prices plummeted for the country's top export, oil.

Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez is forecasting 6 percent growth for 2009, but the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean predicts a 3 percent expansion.

OPEC-mandated cuts in oil output are contributing to the slowdown and could slow growth to as little as 1 percent, said economist Jose Guerra, a professor at Venezuela's Central University and a former Central Bank official.

Inflation has meanwhile soared to 30.9 percent, the highest in Latin America, and prices in Caracas are climbing at their quickest pace in 12 years. The Finance Ministry expects 15 percent inflation in 2009, but economists say prices will more likely climb by 28 percent to 35 percent. The Central Bank raised interest rates once last year to try to slow the surge.
posted 1 year ago
why is Chavez no longer being president exclusive from both bankruptcy being and not being reported?
posted 1 year ago
yeah, what's up with that?

also....is the book referred to 'confessions of an economic hitman' by john perkins? if so, are you, dragon, suggesting some jekyll will try to take Chavez out again?
posted 1 year ago
  6 deanthoreau
this is a perfect example of the kind of bigotry and hate your admins permit...from "the other side"
http://www.hubdub.com/m19824/Will_it_be_reported_that_the_Hugo_Chavez_Government_in_Venezuela_is_bankrupt_before_2010

exactly why is there an option on the prediction aobut hugo chavez not being president..and how does that answer the question: will venezuela be bankrupt before 2010?

If i made a question will the USA be bankrupt before end of 2008 and the options were;
yes
no
george bush is no longer president

that question would have been voided faster than i could take a breaht of air!

Now tell me who is talking out of both sides of their mouths
posted 1 year ago
  7 curios
Another fine example of hyporcracy as the answer is too obvious
posted 1 year ago
@capecodviking:

The question is asking specifically about Hugo Chavez's administration, so there are three outcomes:

Either the Hugo Chavez administration declares bankruptcy before 2010, or it makes it to 2010 without declaring bankruptcy, or thirdly, it ends without declaring bankruptcy first.
posted 1 year ago
  9 deanthoreau
typical racisim and double standrads are shown on this question!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the admin of course permits this type of racist...infalmatory material from their own ssssssssssssssss's
posted 1 year ago
  10 kruijs[Power User]
the more exclamation marks, the more s's (cowardly used instead of the word they want to say),
the less your point is heard (either right or wrong)
posted 1 year ago
  11 bernardo
Hm, in my world a government is only able to be metaphorically bankrupt. What goes bankrupt is the state led by this government. Although I don't smell racism, the connection to Hugo Chavez doesn't fit right in that way.
posted 1 year ago
Venezuela behind on payments to oil contractors
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_venezuela_oil_1

CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela's state oil company is behind on billions in payments to private oil contractors from Oklahoma to Belarus, some of which have now stopped work, even as President Hugo Chavez funnels more oil revenue to social programs.

Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, says unpaid invoices jumped 39 percent in the first nine months of last year — reaching $7.86 billion in September. And that was when world oil was selling for $100 a barrel.

With prices plummeting by more than half, PDVSA is trying to renegotiate some contracts. But analysts say hardball tactics to reduce charges from crucial service providers could backfire by lowering Venezuela's oil output. And foreign debt markets are reflecting jitters about Venezuela's finances.

Oil accounts for 94 percent of Venezuela's exports and funds nearly half the socialist government's budget, and Chavez uses it to bankroll an international aid bonanza, showering allies with cheap fuel, refining projects and cash donations.
posted 1 year ago
I don't understand what all the yelping by lefties has been about on this question. The question is clear and the choices are clear. What more could anyone want? The question asks if the Chavez government will be declared bankrupt. Either Chavez's gov't will, or it won't be bankrupt, or if he get's assassinated or otherwise removed from office before 2010, it's no longer his government, and the question is settled with that choice.

It's funny to see the departed Dean has accused this question of being racist and the admins of a double standard. What a warped paranoid mind. Glad it's gone from here. And then it's always nice to have curios chime in with words that only make sense to him, as usual.
posted 1 year ago
  14 chatarra
I agree Dr - No racism in the question. Only in the minds of some of the guests of Hubdub.
Although I am glad that NN helped me understand the reference to Hugo Chavez as the third option.

I think oil prices will rise again, so I doubt that there will be a bankruptcy - but I have felt that way every since the oil prices dropped. I will be even happier than usual, if I continue to be wrong about the price of oil.
posted 1 year ago
  15 chatarra
@Bernardo
An interesting point.
USA should probably be bankrupt now, except for the Federal Reserve printing off more and more money.
posted 1 year ago
Venezuela behind on payments to oil contractors
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_venezuela_oil_1

CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela's state oil company is behind on billions in payments to private oil contractors from Oklahoma to Belarus, some of which have now stopped work, even as President Hugo Chavez funnels more oil revenue to social programs.

Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, says unpaid invoices jumped 39 percent in the first nine months of last year — reaching $7.86 billion in September. And that was when world oil was selling for $100 a barrel.

With prices plummeting by more than half, PDVSA is trying to renegotiate some contracts. But analysts say hardball tactics to reduce charges from crucial service providers could backfire by lowering Venezuela's oil output. And foreign debt markets are reflecting jitters about Venezuela's finances.

[more at the link]
posted 1 year ago
Venezuela's economic slide surprisingly worse than expected
http://www.petroleumworld.com/story09111816.htm

Venezuela on Tuesday announced a surprisingly large third-quarter
economic fall, shocking analysts and leaving the South American oil
exporter's economy on course for a bigger contraction then previously
thought in 2009.
posted 17 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...

Name
Email
New password
By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service

Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags


score: 10
Venezuela Economy Likely Didn't Contract In 1Q - Analysts

didn't contract in the first quarter of the year despite the backlash from the collapse in the price of oil, the bloodline of the country's economy. President Hugo Chavez sidestepped an economic decline in the first three months of the year by tapping

score: 10
Venezuela's Chavez hails agricultural co-op with China

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez concludes China trip Chinese VP meets Chavez, vowing closer co-op Chavez said expecting more financial co-op with China China, Venezuela to step up co-op in bid to curb global

score: 10
SmarTrend(R) News Watch: Hugo Chavez Seizes Williams Assets in Venezuela

(SmarTrend(R) News Watch via COMTEX) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced that his government is nationalizing 60 oil contractors under a new law that will include the SIMCO consortium, which has worked on oil fields in western Lake Maracaibo

score: 10
Venezuela oil takeovers may leave 22,000 jobless

56 PM Venezuelan unions estimated that nearly 22,000 oil contractors stand to lose their jobs after President Hugo Chavez's government seized the assets of 60 local and foreign-owned oil firms. This picture released by the Venezuelan Presidency shows

score: 10
Chavez takes over oil service firms

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez attends a welcoming ceremony for himself in Tehran, Iran on April 2, 2009. (UPI Photo/Mohammad Kheirkhah) | Enlarge Related Searches 'oil industry' search results 'Venezuelan President