
Will it be reported that the Hugo Chavez Government in Venezuela is bankrupt before 2010?
They're reportedly getting close, but they're not there yet...
Background:>
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/18/AR2008101801860.html?hpid=topnews
From the article:
Robert Bottome, editor of Veneconomia, a Caracas business newsletter, said that if the price continues to fall, Chávez's populist government will face economic turmoil.
"The common perception is that the Venezuelan government goes bankrupt," he said, "that they cannot meet their obligations."
Chávez has said that such prognostications are wishful thinking generated by his foes and that Venezuela, with $40 billion in Central Bank reserves, will ride out the storm. He is among the leaders in OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, who will attend an emergency meeting Friday that could lead to a production cut to boost prices.
Other background links at http://venezuela.notablenotices.com/
Category Editor Clarification
The question specifically states whether the Hugo Chavez government will be bankrupt by the end of the year. So, the first two options relation to a situation in which Chavez is in power, while the third option relates to any situation where Chavez is not in power. The last option will be the settlement if Chavez is no longer president, for any reason, before the end of 2009 AND before any announcement of bankruptcy. If there is an announcement that Chavez will no longer be president - which precedes the actual occurrence of him stepping down as president - the question will remain open until the date he actually steps down.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| Venezuelan government bankruptcy reported |
| |||
| Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported |
| |||
| Hugo Chavez is no longer president of Venezuela |
|
- Activity: H$27,753 |
- Predictions: 51 |
Comments: 17
Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 2nd Jan 2:09pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Venezuelan government bankruptcy reported: 30%, Venezuelan government bankruptcy not reported: 65%, Hugo Chavez is no longer president of Venezuela: 5%
Action history:
Suspend date: Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 2nd Jan 2:09pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details
Predictions (51)
Comments (17)
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http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=322543&CategoryId=10718
Budget uses a $60 barrel of oil price, when the current price for the Venezuelan oil basket is little more than half that at $34.49. Missions to be quietly cut back -- but not until after the vote.
See the question about the vote here: http://www.hubdub.com/m24040/Will_Hugo_Chavez_stay_in_office_as_long_he_keeps_winning_elections
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iIXmfBNJajSjTSALM0NN3kO2JB2QD95JUGUG0
Analysts predict Venezuela's economy is headed for a worse year than the government admits, as falling oil prices stall growth and inflation soars in the import-dependent country.
Venezuela saw growth of 4.8 percent in 2008 — down nearly half from 8.4 percent in 2007 — as its economy began to cool after expanding rapidly for years and as prices plummeted for the country's top export, oil.
Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez is forecasting 6 percent growth for 2009, but the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean predicts a 3 percent expansion.
OPEC-mandated cuts in oil output are contributing to the slowdown and could slow growth to as little as 1 percent, said economist Jose Guerra, a professor at Venezuela's Central University and a former Central Bank official.
Inflation has meanwhile soared to 30.9 percent, the highest in Latin America, and prices in Caracas are climbing at their quickest pace in 12 years. The Finance Ministry expects 15 percent inflation in 2009, but economists say prices will more likely climb by 28 percent to 35 percent. The Central Bank raised interest rates once last year to try to slow the surge.
also....is the book referred to 'confessions of an economic hitman' by john perkins? if so, are you, dragon, suggesting some jekyll will try to take Chavez out again?
http://www.hubdub.com/m19824/Will_it_be_reported_that_the_Hugo_Chavez_Government_in_Venezuela_is_bankrupt_before_2010
exactly why is there an option on the prediction aobut hugo chavez not being president..and how does that answer the question: will venezuela be bankrupt before 2010?
If i made a question will the USA be bankrupt before end of 2008 and the options were;
yes
no
george bush is no longer president
that question would have been voided faster than i could take a breaht of air!
Now tell me who is talking out of both sides of their mouths
The question is asking specifically about Hugo Chavez's administration, so there are three outcomes:
Either the Hugo Chavez administration declares bankruptcy before 2010, or it makes it to 2010 without declaring bankruptcy, or thirdly, it ends without declaring bankruptcy first.
the less your point is heard (either right or wrong)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_venezuela_oil_1
CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela's state oil company is behind on billions in payments to private oil contractors from Oklahoma to Belarus, some of which have now stopped work, even as President Hugo Chavez funnels more oil revenue to social programs.
Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, says unpaid invoices jumped 39 percent in the first nine months of last year — reaching $7.86 billion in September. And that was when world oil was selling for $100 a barrel.
With prices plummeting by more than half, PDVSA is trying to renegotiate some contracts. But analysts say hardball tactics to reduce charges from crucial service providers could backfire by lowering Venezuela's oil output. And foreign debt markets are reflecting jitters about Venezuela's finances.
Oil accounts for 94 percent of Venezuela's exports and funds nearly half the socialist government's budget, and Chavez uses it to bankroll an international aid bonanza, showering allies with cheap fuel, refining projects and cash donations.
It's funny to see the departed Dean has accused this question of being racist and the admins of a double standard. What a warped paranoid mind. Glad it's gone from here. And then it's always nice to have curios chime in with words that only make sense to him, as usual.
Although I am glad that NN helped me understand the reference to Hugo Chavez as the third option.
I think oil prices will rise again, so I doubt that there will be a bankruptcy - but I have felt that way every since the oil prices dropped. I will be even happier than usual, if I continue to be wrong about the price of oil.
An interesting point.
USA should probably be bankrupt now, except for the Federal Reserve printing off more and more money.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_venezuela_oil_1
CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela's state oil company is behind on billions in payments to private oil contractors from Oklahoma to Belarus, some of which have now stopped work, even as President Hugo Chavez funnels more oil revenue to social programs.
Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, says unpaid invoices jumped 39 percent in the first nine months of last year — reaching $7.86 billion in September. And that was when world oil was selling for $100 a barrel.
With prices plummeting by more than half, PDVSA is trying to renegotiate some contracts. But analysts say hardball tactics to reduce charges from crucial service providers could backfire by lowering Venezuela's oil output. And foreign debt markets are reflecting jitters about Venezuela's finances.
[more at the link]
http://www.petroleumworld.com/story09111816.htm
Venezuela on Tuesday announced a surprisingly large third-quarter
economic fall, shocking analysts and leaving the South American oil
exporter's economy on course for a bigger contraction then previously
thought in 2009.
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