Will Lance be our Hero or the Villain after all?
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Background:
Background: Lance moved from triathlons to professional cycling back in the mid 90's. Just as his career began to pick up, he was diagnosed with testicular cancer with metastasis to the brain and lungs and was fighting for his life. In 1999, he was fired by his racing team but US Postal gave the lean, recovering Lance a try. Seven years, three teams and seven Tour de France victories later, the sport had its first seven time consecutive winner and a new wider following. The French accused Lance of cheating all seven years. There was an investigation in 1999 with an independent Danish investigator announcing that there was no indications of cheating or doping and that all continued accusations were proof of poor sportsmanship and outright persecution. There have continued to be grumblings of dissent particularly from the French Racing Authorities ever since. There have been very public examples of cheating most notably: Astana's Vinokovrov, Saunier Duval's Riccardo Ricco, and American Floyd Landis. Some say that this intense, demanding sport is only possible to those who do the best pharmaceuticals. Other's, like former user/now poster boy for clean living, David Millar, say American Christian Vande Veldre is an example of clean riding success and suggest American teams Garmin-Chipolte and Team Columbia as examples of the right philosophy in professional racing.
Lance says that his return to this sport, and the Tour de France in particular, is to bring attention to cancer worldwide. The French have renewed their quest to hound him with accusations of doping. They have repeatedly requested that he allow his frozen 1999 specimens to be retested using new, far more accurate tests. Armstrong refuses, citing the legal judgments of the time. The French smugly say that if he competes, he will finally be catch because drug testing is much more aggressive and accurate than it was even one year ago. Lance continues to insist that he has never cheated or doped. So, the bottom line is: Between the end of October, 2008 and the first of November 2009---one year, will Lance Armstrong be found guilty of cheating, doping, drug use on any race in any year of his career? Will he be the Hero we hope he is or the Villain the French Racing Authorities insist that he is?
-- question by glenda78748
Lance says that his return to this sport, and the Tour de France in particular, is to bring attention to cancer worldwide. The French have renewed their quest to hound him with accusations of doping. They have repeatedly requested that he allow his frozen 1999 specimens to be retested using new, far more accurate tests. Armstrong refuses, citing the legal judgments of the time. The French smugly say that if he competes, he will finally be catch because drug testing is much more aggressive and accurate than it was even one year ago. Lance continues to insist that he has never cheated or doped. So, the bottom line is: Between the end of October, 2008 and the first of November 2009---one year, will Lance Armstrong be found guilty of cheating, doping, drug use on any race in any year of his career? Will he be the Hero we hope he is or the Villain the French Racing Authorities insist that he is?
-- question by glenda78748
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.To be proven a villain, he will have to be reported guilty of doping by an independent news source. If one specimen tests positive and one tests negative, the hero/villain decision will be based on the final outcome of the investigation. If the final outcome has not been decided within the time specified, the outcome will be hero as villain has not been proven.
Forecast history %
| Hero - no doping |
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| Villan - found guilty of doping |
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Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended
- Activity: H$40,617 |
- Predictions: 78 |
Comments: 10
Suspend date: Sat 24th Oct 11:59pm PST
Initial likelihoods: Hero - no doping: 65%, Villan - found guilty of doping: 35%
Action history:
Changed Description Wed 22nd Oct 2008 3:01pm PST by 
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jenniandboys: show details ... Authorities insist that he is? ? <br/> <br/> -- question by <a href="http://www.hubdub.com/users/glenda78748">glenda78748</a>
Suspended Sat 24th Oct 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspend date: Sat 24th Oct 11:59pm PST details 
Get widget!Predictions (78)
rant_zone
predicted Villan - found guilty of doping (H$20 at 1%)
p155272
predicted Villan - found guilty of doping (H$100 at 1%)
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Comments (10)
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score: 10
IAfrica.com 28 weeks ago
says former Tour of Italy winner Ivan Basso is the favourite for this year's event over debutant Lance Armstrong. Seven-time Tour de France champion Armstrong will be competing in his first Giro after coming out of retirement last year. He stepped away
score: 10
New York Times 28 weeks ago
top three perhaps even to win. One of the final steps of his Tour preparation is the Giro dItalia, which starts on Saturday in Venice with the team time trial. Vande Velde, 32, enters the event as the leader of the Garmin-Slipstream squad. No more
score: 10
IAfrica.com 28 weeks ago
says former Tour of Italy winner Ivan Basso is the favourite for this year's event over debutant Lance Armstrong. Seven-time Tour de France champion Armstrong will be competing in his first Giro after coming out of retirement last year. He stepped away
score: 10
France24 28 weeks ago
Seven-time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong has confirmed he might create his own team one day. The 37-year-old US cycling star is to participate in his first Giro, starting Saturday, but
score: 10
Reuters 29 weeks ago
By Mark Lamport-Stokes LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Seven-times Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong will return to competition at this week's Tour of the Gila in New Mexico after recovering from collarbone surgery, race organizers said on Tuesday
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When a person has cancer, steroids are a rather normal course of events. I mean an inhaler is considered doping...so it would be interesting to see exactly how fine a line they draw considering lances medical history....
Armstrong said that he had discussed his concerns, with the great Belgian cyclist Eddie Merckx. "Eddie Merckx would have won six Tours if he hadn't been punched. It happens to the best of us. Eddie broke a rib, fell over and was out of the race. I try not to think about that stuff."
How do racers protect themselves from "fans" who cause them to fall, crash, inject them with drugs, etc? If the great Merck was fouled, how safe is anyone, especially Armstrong?
Accused of violating testing protocols, so he may not even get the chance to race.
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