valornhonor
Will Obama's campaign spend more than $10.00 per vote?
The 2008 Presidential Election was the most expensive in American history. Obama out-spent John McCain by a considerable margin: McCain's campaign spent $6.33 per vote recieved, and Obama spent $9.88 per vote.
Background:
There are two variables in this market:
a.) The October fundraising results and how much they will add to the year-to-date amount of $498.8M. //Note, Sept was Obama's best month yet with $150M raised, lowest month in 2008 was May at $22M.//
and
b.) The total number of actual votes that Senator Obama will receive this year for President.
A good month of fundraising in October will drive the per vote amount up, and a much higher turnout of votes will drive the per/vote amount down.
Market is looking to forecast whether the Jan-Oct. warchest divided by the number of votes will be greater than $10.00 per vote.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
- Activity: H$29,515 |
- Predictions: 64 |
Comments: 13
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 26th Nov 2008 8:27pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 2008 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
valornhonor 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: The 2008 Presidential Election was the most expensive in American history. Obama out-spent John McCain by a considerable margin: McCain's campaign spent $6.33 per vote recieved, and Obama spent $9.88 per vote. 
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 26th Nov 2008 8:27pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 2008 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (64)
chuck
predicted No (H$40 at 47%)
damian_gunning
predicted Yes (H$20 at 53%)
predicted Yes (H$61 at 53%)
thomismydad
predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 51%)
predicted Yes (H$50 at 50%)Comments (13)
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Sorry you're ineligible for a refund as your $HD balance is in excess of $250,000. It's going to some other "Joe."
You're right! I won't be elgible under Obama's tax initiative. (Sigh). It's only hubdub dollars!
But here in Texas -- as you know -- we're not seeing much campaign advertising at all. This is MCCAIN country and I don't see many ads for either side on tv. But what really counts for me is not targeted advertising, but what I see on all four debates, daily clips from news reports, and interviews when they occur. That's where I made up my mind, and I have already "early-voted".
Now I can watch it play out on hubdub...
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/summary.php?cycle=2008&cid=n00009638
Either way that's less than the $667 million needed to reach $10/vote.
Not sure how final the numbers are.
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