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Which X-Factor judge or host will be the next to leave the show?

Background: Bios from ITV site:

Simon Cowell
Simon has helped sell over 150 million records and has had over 70 UK and US no. 1. He's a household name on both sides of the Atlantic thanks to his TV shows The X Factor, Britain’s Got Talent and American Idol.

Dannii Minogue
Dannii's first TV appearance came on Australia’s Young Talent Time aged 7. Since then she has had number 1 hits in the music charts, starred in soaps, musicals and is a judge on Australia’s Got Talent.

Cheryl Cole
Cheryl came to prominence after entering the talent show Popstars: The Rivals, winning a place in Girls Aloud. They've had phenomenal success achieving a record breaking 18 consecutive Top Ten hits.

Louis Walsh
King of the Irish pop scene, Louis is the man behind some of the most successful bands in pop history; Boyzone, Westlife, Girls Aloud and Shayne Ward, achieving a staggering 28 number ones along the way.

Dermot O'Leary
Since fronting Channel 4’s show T4, Dermot has hosted shows including SAS Are You Tough Enough? and Big Brother spin-off show BBLB. He is also a BBC Radio 2 presenter.

Holly Willoughby
Holly won a ‘Best Presenter’ BAFTA award for her children’s TV work. She has since gone onto present Holly & Fearne Go Dating, Lip Service, and co-presents ITV1’s Dancing On Ice.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Includes step down, being fired or quitting. In case of two people not returning, will settle as first one officially announced. Otherwise, may be double settled. If show is axed, question will be voided.

 
Forecast history %
Louis Walsh
18%
Dannii Minogue
53%
Dermot O'Leary
12%
Holly Willoughby
7%
Simon Cowell
4%
Cheryl Cole
7%
Question suspends in 10 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 1st Jun 3:59pm PST (10 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Louis Walsh: 34%, Dannii Minogue: 30%, Dermot O'Leary: 20%, Holly Willoughby: 10%, Simon Cowell: 3%, Cheryl Cole: 3%

Action history:

Created Fri 24th Oct 2008 8:32pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Fri 23rd Jan 2009 10:14am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: was: "2009-01-30 15:59:00"
Suspended Sat 28th Feb 2009 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Mon 2nd Mar 2009 4:43pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: no news as of yet
Changed Suspend date Mon 2nd Mar 2009 4:43pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: was: "2009-02-28 15:59:00"
Suspended Tue 28th Jul 2009 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Wed 29th Jul 2009 8:50am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: was: "2009-07-28 15:59:00"
Unsuspended Wed 29th Jul 2009 8:50am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Everyone appears to be returning for Season 6. Now what will happen next year?

Suspend date: Tue 1st Jun 3:59pm PST (10 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (67)

1 week ago
poetryanne predicted Dannii Minogue (H$100 at 52%)
3 weeks ago
keithccc predicted Dannii Minogue (H$11 at 52%)
3 weeks ago
dontsellfakes predicted Dannii Minogue (H$300 at 50%)
3 weeks ago
keithccc predicted Dannii Minogue (H$410 at 46%)
5 weeks ago
aylouis predicted Dannii Minogue (H$50 at 79%)

Comments (3)

  1 rhysoneil
None of them are leaving!
posted 36 weeks ago
  2 italic
none of them are going to leave in 15 weeks!!!
posted 5 weeks ago
This question is not tied to a specific date. If no one has left in 3 months, we'll just extend the suspend date further out. Eventually SOMEONE will leave!
posted 5 weeks ago

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