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Will cold fusion become a reality before January 2018?

Background: Researchers Run World's Largest-Scale Fusion Energy Simulation on Cray Supercomputer

"Fusion holds the promise of a revolutionary new energy source for the world, and this important simulation has brought us one step closer to making it a reality," said Yong Xiao, the UCI researcher who led the unprecedented simulation of electron turbulent transport in fusion experiments. "Advances in high performance computing are key to advancing the science associated with identifying and developing alternative energy sources. The Cray XT4 system provided the scale, reliability and sustained performance required to handle the tremendous amount of data produced by complex fusion simulations."

Researchers speculate that fusion, the power source of the stars and sun, could provide a cleaner, more abundant energy source with far fewer harmful emissions than fossil-fuel burning power plants and fewer problems associated with waste than current nuclear power reactors.

"This is an important milestone and we applaud the efforts of the research team at UCI led by Yong Xiao and Zhihong Lin and the critical resources provided by ORNL's National Center for Computational Sciences," said Ian Miller, senior vice president of sales and marketing at Cray. "Cray systems are designed to tackle the most sophisticated and relevant challenges in science and engineering. This critical achievement is the result of the best minds in science converging with the highest innovation and scalability in high performance computing."

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS125390+29-Jul-2008+MW20080729

Category Editor Clarification
'Become a reality' means commercially available as an energy source. The question may be settled on a confirmed announcement of an imminent supply of such energy.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
25%
No
75%
Question suspends in 7 years

Suspend date: Wed 13th Dec 2017 11:59pm PST (7 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Mon 27th Oct 2008 5:35am PST by growthy

Suspend date: Wed 13th Dec 2017 11:59pm PST (7 years to go) details

 

Predictions (67)

4 weeks ago
tim14 predicted No (H$200 at 75%)
10 weeks ago
luckger predicted Yes (H$100 at 25%)
10 weeks ago
ciraric predicted No (H$1,472 at 74%)
10 weeks ago
tim14 predicted No (H$100 at 73%)
10 weeks ago
espinator predicted Yes (H$300 at 27%)

Comments (7)

  1 bigken1
This will happen when anti gravity is developed. Why must we wait till 2018 for this to be developed?
We could use it now..
posted 1 year ago
  2 johnoday
The real question is; will Hubdub exist 10 years from now?
posted 1 year ago
  3 tisha[Admin]
Well, we're taking it one year at a time, but looking good for 2010 at least ;-)
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Hubdub_still_be_around_in_2010_1235/view
posted 1 year ago
  4 growthy
MIT: New insights on fusion power
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-12/miot-mni120308.php
posted 1 year ago
I placed a bet quite a while ago after reading this page. Cold fusion isn't even proven real in most scientists' minds, so getting to commercial sales of power by 2018 (proving it real, developing a working prototype that yields net power, getting licensed to set up a power plant, getting it built and operating) seems pretty unlikely.

But I just took the time to read the links above, and realized they're not about cold fusion, but ordinary "hot" fusion, and that the rest of the text of the question is ambiguous. There might be an outside chance of commercial hot fusion happening, somewhere in the world.

Are some people taking this question to be about *any* kind of fusion providing commercial power by 2018??

The question's creator should clarify this, since either the title or the rest of the text is misleading.
posted 1 year ago
  6 rogerkni
Here's a glimmer of hope, from a navy researcher a few days ago:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.a67cf72fe27770f9ec992da18169937d.a1&show_article=1
posted 50 weeks ago
Again - author (growthy) should probably revise the title - I don't think they really mean "cold" fusion, based on the background text, but rather "any kind of fusion power".
posted 29 weeks ago

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