Created Sat 1st Nov 2008 9:17am PST by

What will be the result of Sunday's Gallup poll?

Settled as Obama +11

Background: We're getting down to the wire with only 1 week to go before election day. Everyone else is starting to watch the polls obsessively, why should we be be any different? Let's try some daily poll prognostication and see how we do. Don't worry, the weekly one is still here.

No change today, and very little time left for McCain. John needs a big game changer .. today..

Note: Gallup polls are the result of a 3 day rolling average so the poll released on Tuesday will be based on surveys done on Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights. (Based on survey of REGISTERED voters)

Settlement details:As reported by Gallup near 1300EDT on Sunday.

Forecast history %

Obama +13 or more

Obama +12

19%

Obama +11

28%

Obama +10

25%

Obama +9 or less

23%

Settled as Obama +11 on Sun 2nd Nov 2008 10:42am PST

Activity: H$8,860
Predictions: 95
Comments: 2

Suspend date: Sun 2nd Nov 2008 4am PST
Settlement date: Sun 2nd Nov 2008 10:42am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 2nd Nov 2008 4am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama +13 or more: 10%, Obama +12: 20%, Obama +11: 35%, Obama +10: 20%, Obama +9 or less: 15%

Action history:

Created Sat 1st Nov 2008 9:18am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

Suspended Sun 2nd Nov 2008 4am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sun 2nd Nov 2008 4:57am PST by

emmag

: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Caily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

Settled as 'Obama +11' Sun 2nd Nov 2008 10:42am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

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Predictions (95)

1 year ago

downunderdave Level 7, Pro (H$4,458)

predicted Obama +9 or less (H$9 at 23%)

1 year ago

downunderdave Level 7, Pro (H$4,458)

predicted Obama +10 (H$15 at 25%)

1 year ago

sonse

predicted Obama +9 or less (H$20 at 23%)

1 year ago

dingoh Level 13, Psychic (H$98,386)

predicted Obama +10 (H$50 at 25%)

1 year ago

ozarkguy Level 12, Guru (H$40,674)

predicted Obama +9 or less (H$20 at 23%)

Comments (2)

emmag

It will be interesting to watch whether the "Obama's aunt" thing gets enough traction to affect the polls. Certainly that's what the Rs are counting on.

posted 1 year ago

deelilley Level 15, Seer (H$416,605)

I'm waiting for Walnuts to go for the David & Goliath analogy
Pea-shooter - Steamroller.

posted 1 year ago

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