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When will the next breach of confidential data in the UK occur?

Settled as March 2009

A memory stick containing information on hundreds of police investigations has gone missing in Edinburgh. A search was launched after the loss was reported on 26 February - up to two months after it disappeared at Lothian and Borders Police's headquarters. The USB memory stick contains 750 entries on vehicles "of interest" to police, along with other intelligence.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7932228.stm

Background:

Background: The Independent today reported the latest incident of lost data:

"An investigation is underway after a memory stick with user names and passwords for a government computer system was found in a pub car park, leading to the shutting down of the website as a security precaution.

The latest embarrassing episode for the Government in a long list of data mishandling involved the Gateway website, which is used by members of the public to access dozens of services including self-assessment tax returns, pension entitlements and child benefits. It has 12 million registered users."

Even more interesting is the list of breaches at the bottom of the article:
*October 2008: Ministry of Defence loses disc with details of 100,000 members of Armed Forces.
*September 2008: Files on 200 patients lost by NHS Trust in Co Durham.
*August 2008: Home Office contractor loses memory stick with files on 84,000 prisoners.
*June 2008: Government official leaves top secret documents on train.
*April 2008: Army captain's laptop taken as he ate in McDonald's.
*January 2008: Details of 600,000 potential Navy recruits go missing in Birmingham.
*December 2007: Three million driving test candidates' details disappear.
*November 2007: HM Revenue & Customs loses child benefit records with details of 25 million people.

That's an average of just under one breach a month! When will be the next incident of personal/confidential data being lost, released or in any other way erroneously made potentially available to unauthorised sources?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Data may be from any private or public company. As background info suggests, the 'breach' may occur in a variety of different ways. 'Must occur in the UK' - means either the data involves members of the UK, the UK office of the company involved, or the breach occurs in the UK.

 
Forecast history %
November 2008
7%
December 2008
7%
January 2009
8%
February 2009
6%
March 2009
23%
April 2009
21%
None by 1 May 2009
29%
Settled as March 2009 on Tue 10th Mar 12:53pm PST

Suspend date: Thu 30th Apr 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 10th Mar 12:53pm PST

Initial likelihoods: November 2008: 15%, December 2008: 15%, January 2009: 15%, February 2009: 15%, March 2009: 15%, April 2009: 15%, None by 1 May 2009: 10%

Action history:

Created Sun 2nd Nov 2008 4:27pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Settlement requested Tue 10th Mar 11:41am PST by oasisman: Police force loses memory stick

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7932228.stm
Suspended Tue 10th Mar 12:47pm PST by tisha[Admin]: checking settlement details
Settled as 'March 2009' Tue 10th Mar 12:53pm PST by tisha[Admin]: A memory stick containing information on hundreds of police investigations has gone missing in Edinburgh. A search was launched after the loss was reported on 26 February - up to two months after it disappeared at Lothian and Borders Police's headquarters. The USB memory stick contains 750 entries on vehicles "of interest" to police, along with other intelligence.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7932228.stm

Suspend date: Thu 30th Apr 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 10th Mar 12:53pm PST details

 

Predictions (66)

36 weeks ago
oasisman predicted March 2009 (H$20 at 23%)
36 weeks ago
peterwindlehill predicted None by 1 May 2009 (H$200 at 29%)
36 weeks ago
peterwindlehill predicted April 2009 (H$100 at 20%)
37 weeks ago
drblockbuster predicted April 2009 (H$20 at 20%)
37 weeks ago
oasisman predicted None by 1 May 2009 (H$100 at 27%)

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