Created Mon 3rd Nov 2008 3:46am PST by

simoncast Level 6, Player (H$2,025)

When will Facebook layoff staff and/or freeze hiring?

Settled as Later than 2009 or never

Background: Recent post from TechCrunch has raise the possibility of Facebook running out of money. One of their highest costs is staff and so in order to bring costs in line with revenue during a time when external funding is difficult to come by, laying off staff as many Internet companies have already done is a reasonable measure to reduce costs. Facebook may try to do this quietly (Cheryl Sandberg was at Google in the last downturn where they froze hiring) by freezing hiring.

http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/10/31/facebooks-growing-problem/

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source, TechCrunch or VentureBeat

Forecast history %

Before Jan 1st 2009

Q1 2009 (Jan to Mar)

Q2 2009 (Apr to Jun)

Q3 2009 (Jul to Sep)

Q4 2009 (Oct to Dec)

Later than 2009 or never

99%

Settled as Later than 2009 or never on Sat 2nd Jan 2:01pm PST

Activity: H$36,159
Predictions: 61
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 2nd Jan 2:01pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Before Jan 1st 2009: 10%, Q1 2009 (Jan to Mar): 30%, Q2 2009 (Apr to Jun): 30%, Q3 2009 (Jul to Sep): 15%, Q4 2009 (Oct to Dec): 10%, Later than 2009 or never: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 3rd Nov 2008 3:46am PST by

simoncast Level 6, Player (H$2,025)

Suspended Fri 19th Dec 2008 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Changed Suspend date Tue 30th Dec 2008 8:17am PST by

tomg

: was: "2008-12-19 15:59:00"

Unsuspended Tue 30th Dec 2008 8:17am PST by

tomg

: Suspend date brought in line with options.

Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 1st Jan 7:56am PST by

jake

: No layoffs or hiring freeze reported.

Settled as 'Later than 2009 or never' Sat 2nd Jan 2:01pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

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Predictions (61)

11 weeks ago

peterwindlehill Level 13, Psychic (H$70,970)

predicted Later than 2009 or never (H$2,000 at 94%)

15 weeks ago

jank

predicted Later than 2009 or never (H$200 at 89%)

15 weeks ago

gtown

predicted Later than 2009 or never (H$10,000 at 75%)

15 weeks ago

neopugg Level 13, Psychic (H$56,274)

predicted Later than 2009 or never (H$50 at 48%)

15 weeks ago

neopugg Level 13, Psychic (H$56,274)

predicted Q4 2009 (Oct to Dec) (H$50 at 15%)

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