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Created Tue 4th Nov 2008 5:09am PST by fanningtheflames

Will a major terrorist attack lead to a fall in oil output within 6 months of Inauguration day?

Settled as No

Didn't happen...

Background:

Background: It is widely believed the new president will be tested early in office, this question asks whether this test might be a military and financial test, the world economy being particularly vulnerable to a sudden raising of the oil price at the moment.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source that a terrorist attack after on or after the 20th January leads to a fall in world oil production of =>1%

 
Forecast history %
Yes
1%
No
99%
Settled as No on Sun 19th Jul 1:31pm PST

Suspend date: Sun 19th Jul 7:59am PST
Settlement date: Sun 19th Jul 1:31pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 19th Jul 7:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Tue 4th Nov 2008 5:09am PST by fanningtheflames
Suspended Sun 19th Jul 7:59am PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'No' Sun 19th Jul 1:31pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: Didn't happen...

Suspend date: Sun 19th Jul 7:59am PST
Settlement date: Sun 19th Jul 1:31pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 19th Jul 7:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (43)

18 weeks ago
jacobjj predicted No (H$930 at 99%)
18 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted No (H$9,250 at 99%)
18 weeks ago
gamer99 predicted No (H$20 at 99%)
18 weeks ago
stephmoreland predicted No (H$1,231 at 99%)
18 weeks ago
oocares predicted No (H$10,000 at 98%)

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