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How many US Supreme Court Justices will retire by the end of 2009?

Current forecast: None (43% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is None with a probability of 43% (unchanged in last 1 day)

How many US Supreme Court Justices will retire now that the President will be a Democrat?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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None
43%
1
25%
2
27%
3 or more
6%
Activity: H$3,108
Question suspends in 51 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (51 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: None: 40%, 1: 40%, 2: 10%, 3 or more: 10%

Action history:

Created Tue 4th Nov 2008 8:42pm PST by jedc

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (51 weeks to go)
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Predictions (14)

14 predictions

2 days ago
theonecalledmichael predicted 2 (H$500 at 23%)
5 days ago
fellcolor predicted 2 (H$450 at 15%)
5 days ago
fellcolor predicted None (H$1,400 at 44%)
5 weeks ago
colins_pride predicted 1 (H$100 at 40%)
6 weeks ago
chrisfmasse predicted 1 (H$1 at 40%)
more

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