Who will win the Presidential Election of 2012?

The fact that we're even ASKING this now, just one day after the 2008 election, just goes to show how much this cycle has gotten people involved in politics. Should be interesting to see who comes up for 2012, though I suspect that none of the folks in this cycle will make a comeback.

Where are the 2012 election map predictions?

Holy crap. It seems that people have already made up there mind on who they want in the 2012 election as well! We may be waiting for 2016 before we get our office back!

4 yrs is a looooooong time to have your money invested with no return. i think a month is a long time to wait.

no kidding. Besides, in 4 years there will be a whole new crop of canidates for the republican party that arent listed here yet! Plus hilliary clinton will want to try again. We cant guess at who will run!

I think this is a better question at this time. specific candidates will change too much between now and then.. except Obama... http://www.hubdub.com/m21550/What_party_will_win_the_2012_US_Presidential_Election

I love when year-old questions like this get suddenly sparked to life because one heavy hitter rediscovers it and it's like ripples in a pond.

Hillary had her chance, and lost; that's not gonna happen. Biden is too prone to verbal gaffes to make it in, and there's doubt as to whether he really wants it anyway. Palin is a nutcase that doesn't stand a chance. McCain will be 97 years old in 2012, so neither does he. Someone else? The Dems have a few folks waiting in the wings, and the GOP anoints a new Golden Child every now and then (and the just-departed-from-CNN Lou Dobbs may be next). But my money's on Obama.

This is the only question to combine personalities and parties, nominations and final election. Obviously the high initial rating for Obama would dip when his poll ratings dropped. sqlman has a strong point, but there is still a real possibility for any of the options.

Indeed, normally the incumbent wins. This is true in all U.S. elections from the dog catcher to the president.

However, this is not shaping up to be a 'normal' presidency.

My money is on Obama losing his large majorities in congress in the mid-terms and not being able to or wanting to, move centrist as Clinton did...and therefore thrive.

Thus, he will end up sharing the mantle with Carter as 'Our Best Ex-president'

I would go further and wager a Republican that is not currently holding public office. (No, not Palin)

There's a huge discrepancy between this issue and http://www.hubdub.com/m59309/Will_Barack_Obama_be_reelected_president_in_2012

According to the other one, Obama being re-elected is at 47%, but according to this, Obama being re-elected is at 27%. Same outcome but totally different probabilities, and they both have enough money down at this point that the difference between them is almost certainly statistically significant and not the outcome of chance statistical swings.

I can think of a few reasons this one might be so much lower for Obama:

1. people irrationally are led to think it's more likely Obama will win on the other issue because there are only 2 options, whereas there are 8 options on this ticket. This could be a result of the anchoring effect, wherein people start at 50% on the other issue and adjust from there, whereas they start at 16.6% here (100/8) and adjust from there.

2. people are betting so much on this issue in order to make a statement rather than because they think they can make a profit. They get a good feeling by betting against Obama, and thus they bet much more than they would have otherwise.

3. people are overly influenced by the sensationalist media and a few extremely vocal members of the Republican wingnut party (Beck, Limbaugh, etc.) who think Obama is a terrorist, that he wasn't born in Hawaii and faked his birth certificate, that he is a closet Muslim, that he is a socialist and a communist, that he wants to set up death panels to kill old people, etc. This issue mentions the Republican party, which triggers all the associated talking points those people promulgate, whereas the other one doesn't mention Republicans, and so doesn't cause the "I hate the Obama Antichrist and want my country back" rhetoric to be so strongly evoked.

Any other ideas about why they would be so different? If it's largely the same people, then they're assigning different probabilities to the same event. If it's largely different people, the question is why there would be such a significant different in the types of people who bet on one rather than the other.

@11 Interesting discussion, Bip, and of course an arbitrage possibility. M59309 is a new question, while this has been running for a year, though only recently quite active.

Leaving aside maths pedantry, the anchoring discussion might make one think that the 'long shots' will be over rated - a couple of Palin fans can easily bid up the percentage - but in fact the main battle is between Obama v. the Republican field.

I hope this q. just hits the right buttons as you suggest; with most bets hidden it is hard to say if the same population is betting on each.

Palin has already started her campaign... errrm, I mean book tour. She has her moments, but getting into an argument with a 19 year old is not going to get her elected:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/11/17/earlyshow/main5682541.shtml

That said, right now I think there's a great deal of concern about the federal deficit and the approach on health care that's likely to lead to some backlash in the 2010 mid-terms. Couple that with the likelihood that this economy is a long way from recovering and more than likely will be a double-dip recession with unemployment already at 10.2%. That opens the door to a lot of outside-the-box possibilities. If unemployment is over 8-9% in the summer of 2012, Obama's re-election chances are done for.