Created Wed 5th Nov 2008 6:31pm PST by

pixelpaws Level 13, Psychic (H$66,918)

Will the US unemployment rate exceed 7% at any point in 2009?

Settled as Yes

Settled as YES based on news reports of 7.2% unemployment for December. Although the question refers to 2009, the background asks if we will see levels above 7% by the end of 09, and we have, even if the data is Dec 08, it still referred to data following the creation of the question.

Background:

Background: The current official unemployment rate is 6.1% and has increased nearly every month since June. Will we see 7.0% or higher by the end '09 or will the trend reverse itself?

With the latest unemployment figures as released on 11/07, the possibility of reaching 7% before the end of 2009 has to be considered. It might be much sooner! Layoffs and job cuts are continuing to be announced and as the economy continues to worsen, there may be a chance of seeing still higher numbers in the next few months.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

96%

Settled as Yes on Sat 10th Jan 5:20am PST

Activity: H$49,935
Predictions: 26
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)
Settlement date: Sat 10th Jan 5:20am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 9th Jan 11:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Wed 5th Nov 2008 6:31pm PST by

pixelpaws Level 13, Psychic (H$66,918)

Changed Description Sun 9th Nov 2008 9:46am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... will the trend reverse itself?? <br/> <br/> <b>With the latest unemployment figures as released on 11/07, the possibility of reaching 7% before the end of 2009 has to be considered. It might be much sooner! Layoffs and job cuts are continuing to be announced and as the economy continues to worsen, there may be a chance of seeing still higher numbers in the next few months.</b>

Changed Suspend date Sun 9th Nov 2008 9:46am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2008-12-31 23:59:00"

Suspended Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Unsuspended Mon 1st Dec 2008 11:08am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Wrong suspension time was set...should expire November 30, 2009.

Changed Suspend date Mon 1st Dec 2008 11:08am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2008-11-30 23:59:00"

Changed Question text Mon 1st Dec 2008 11:21am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: ... US ~~unemployement~~unemployment rate exceed 7% at any

Settlement requested Fri 9th Jan 12:05pm PST by

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$421,450)

: The latest official BLS report on unemployment, for 12/08, is just out and shows the rate reached 7.2% in Dec.:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abgjruFM53_Y&refer=home

Suspended Sat 10th Jan 5:13am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: checking settlement

Settled as 'Yes' Sat 10th Jan 5:20am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Settled as YES based on news reports of 7.2% unemployment for December. Although the question refers to 2009, the background asks if we will see levels above 7% by the end of 09, and we have, even if the data is Dec 08, it still referred to data following the creation of the question.

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Predictions (26)

45 weeks ago

jarrod Level 13, Psychic (H$69,926)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 96%)

45 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$421,450)

predicted Yes (H$5,000 at 96%)

45 weeks ago

speculation1938 Level 1, Newbie (H$113)

predicted Yes (H$20 at 95%)

49 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$421,450)

predicted Yes (H$5,000 at 94%)

49 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$421,450)

predicted Yes (H$5,000 at 92%)

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