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Will North Korea come under the control of South Korea in 2009?

Question created by
Background: North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's apparently serious illness has breathed new life into long-dormant plans from regional powers to prepare for when he loses his iron grip on power in the communist state. If Kim Jong-il's government suddenly collapsed, Seoul would try to establish an emergency headquarters in the North to rebuild its broken economy, Reuters reported here http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE4A52QV20081106 . Possible scenarios in the event of his death are discussed here http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE4A52QX20081106.

Settlement details:This question will settle as "yes" if South Korea takes day-to-day control of the North, either on its own or as part of a coalition.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
2%
No
98%
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 6th Nov 2008 9:39am PST by reuters

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (146)

4 weeks ago
shafika360 predicted No (H$20 at 98%)
4 weeks ago
snottypurpleface predicted No (H$100 at 98%)
5 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted No (H$10,000 at 98%)
6 weeks ago
tanaymishra predicted No (H$500 at 97%)
8 weeks ago
gianmy predicted No (H$100 at 97%)

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