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Who will be President Obama's Attorney General?

Settled as Eric Holder

Obama also named Washington lawyer Eric Holder as attorney general

Background:

The US Attorney General heads the Department of Justice, and acts as the Presidents supreme legal adviser. Recently scandals in the DoJ involving the Bush administration and Alberto Gonzales have tarnished the agency. The pick will have to be confirmed by the Senate.

Janet Napolitano: Current Governor of Arizona and longtime supporter of Obama from the beginning. She has been rumored to be quite alright with this possibility.

Eric Holder: Helped run Obama's vice presidential search committee, but has been host to vicious right-wing attacks in the past due to his affiliation with the Clinton White House, where he severed as Attorney General.

Hillary Clinton: Although she wasn't really in the running for VP, her name has been mentioned time and time again as a possible choice for Obama's cabinet and specifically Attorney General.

Arthur Davis: Current Democratic member of the House, and held the assistant attorney general position in Alabama.

Deval Patrick: Current Governor of Mass. and longtime friend of Obama. Deval has an accomplished legal history and his longtime friendship with Obama may mean a possible cabinet position.

Patrick Fitzgerald: Lawyer who presided over the Valarie Plame trial. Has shown a willingness to pursue things to there ultimate conclusion and is a hard well known lawyer.

James B. Comey:Currently working with Lockheed Martin but was an assistant Attorney General under Bush.

Useful Link:
New York Times article on Obama's and McCain's possible Cabinet picks

Huff Post news page on Obama's possible cabinet picks


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Janet Napolitano
0%
Eric Holder
98%
Hillary Clinton
0%
Arthur Davis
0%
Deval Patrick
0%
James B. Comey
0%
Patrick Fitzgerald
0%
Someone Else
1%
Activity: H$33,448
Settled as Eric Holder on Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:23am PST

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 11:59pm PST (1 week to go) Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:23am PST

Initial likelihoods: Janet Napolitano: 20%, Eric Holder: 5%, Hillary Clinton: 5%, Arthur Davis: 5%, Deval Patrick: 15%, James B. Comey: 5%, Patrick Fitzgerald: 5%, Someone Else: 40%

Action history:

Created Fri 7th Nov 2008 2:53am PST by ryanj[Admin]
Suspended Tue 18th Nov 2008 1:08pm PST by destry[Admin]: Pending review of breaking news.
Settlement requested Wed 19th Nov 2008 7:24am PST by rbrog77: Justice (AG): Eric Holder CONFIRMED BY NBC NEWS

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/19/1681103.aspx

Towards the bottom of the page
Unsuspended Mon 24th Nov 2008 10:50am PST by destry[Admin]: NO official announcements have been released.
Suspended Mon 1st Dec 2008 7:43am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Settlement requested Mon 1st Dec 2008 9:28am PST by rbrog77: It's Holder

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27983003/
Settled as 'Eric Holder' Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:23am PST by destry[Admin]: Obama also named Washington lawyer Eric Holder as attorney general

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 11:59pm PST (1 week to go) Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:23am PST
more info...

 

Predictions (74)

74 predictions

5 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Eric Holder (H$5,000 at 97%)
5 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Eric Holder (H$2,500 at 94%)
6 weeks ago
horsefeathers predicted Eric Holder (H$20 at 93%)
6 weeks ago
curios predicted Eric Holder (H$4,000 at 91%)
6 weeks ago
vidal1 predicted Someone Else (H$100 at 5%)
more

Comments (24)

  3 dieseldog
even if he get's the nod from obama doesn't mean he will be confirmed. question doesn't ask who obama will nominate..this should be unspended imho.
posted 7 weeks ago
@ Destry
Until an official announcement is made, this is ABSURD to suspend the question. Hubdubbers should be able to make predictions based upon whatever information is available until the suspend date is reached or an official announcement is made. Is this Hubdub policy that when a rumor or non-official announcement is made, the question is suspended?
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 tisha[Admin]
We do have some rules on settlement and suspension - http://www.hubdub.com/public/rules#settlement

This one might be relevant: In questions on news where initial reports are often inaccurate, questions will generally be suspended on initial reports however they will not be settled until there is a stronger consensus among news sources. If the consensus results in the question remaining open then it will be unsuspended.
posted 7 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
tisha - i know your not political admin but to suspend this question is wrong. the secatary of state question is open, and theres all kinds of reports out of hillary getting that job. some will say well hillary might not get the job cause of bill's connections overseas. holder might not get this job for his role in granting mark rich's pardon. then theres the question it's self...its not asking who obama will nominate. why suspend this one and leave the secatary of state question open?
posted 7 weeks ago
  8 destry[Admin]
I suspended this market. I stand by the decision to suspend it. I am leaning toward settlement of markets once Obama announces officially his nominee, with a Democratic congress the odds of not getting confirmed are next to nothing.
posted 7 weeks ago
Thanks for the information Tisha. I see that the policy is: "In questions on news where initial reports are often inaccurate, questions will generally be suspended on initial reports however they will not be settled until there is a stronger consensus among news sources. If the consensus results in the question remaining open then it will be unsuspended."

Might I suggest that since initial reports are often inaccurate, they could make for more interesting movement in the percentages, and more action for players, which is stifled if the question is prematurely suspended. It seems that it would be advantageous not to suspend questions so early.
posted 7 weeks ago
  10 dieseldog
destry - so why not suspend the secatary of state market?
posted 7 weeks ago
  11 curios
@ Drzinternet
i have to agree with you. in some respects they seem to have broken there own rules?

on must never forget that Destry is above any rules being a rule unto hiself.
posted 7 weeks ago
"I suspended this market. I stand by the decision to suspend it."

Good for you!
posted 7 weeks ago
  13 destry[Admin]
@curios - I wonder in Australia do they have a device called a spell checker. What it does is it checks the accuracy of the words you are trying to use and alerts you to a potential misspelled word, which makes your writing very difficult to understand, and shows a lack of intelligence which I assume you possess.

As far as being above the rules, all of the actions I take are available for public scrutiny, I have to abide by the same rules as every one else. The category editors and super users, are held to an even higher standard of play, since we have complete transparency with our predictions. The actions we take are available for everyone to see, discuss, criticize, and raise objection to.

The reason for not suspending the Secretary of State article is that there is still uncertainty about whether she will accept the position, there has been no uncertainty about the Attorney General news I have been reading. If there becomes reasonable doubt that the news has misled or wrongly reported the AG nominee then that market can be reopened.

The reason markets are suspended is to prevent people from making wagers or cashing in wagers after an outcome is likely to occur. A person who might have wagered on someone other than the potential AG, could cash out their position if the question was open, and gain money they shouldn't be able to acquire. Also others would be able to pile onto a position and drive the market substantially higher, thereby creating profits they shouldn't earn. Since we have the ability to back void predictions once we settle a market, it is helpful to have a market in suspend status so those predictions can not be closed for ill gotten gains.

If news breaks that the Secretary of State position is going to be filled by a particular individual I will suspend that market as I did the AG market, until news can be confirmed.
posted 7 weeks ago
  14 curios
@Destry- note the capital? yes i do have a spell checker, and have to use it all the time, i have to convert pure English into American/ English.

In your second paragraph there faults for English /English,where some of the faults lay, are in your use of z where we use s .

Quite apart from all that there was no need to CASTIGATE me on here. There are many people because of your lack of compassion have left Hubdub. But by the same token there are many that help. you just have a delight in trying to ruin the enjoyment of many;
Why not have your first paragraph challenged by the admin.
(I wonder in Australia do they have a device called a spell checker. What it does is it checks the accuracy of the words you are trying to use and alerts you to a potential misspelled word, which makes your writing very difficult to understand, and shows a lack of intelligence which I assume you possess )
and from a AdMIN to boot.
My INTELLIGENCE OR LACK OF would be at least on a par with yours and may i be so bold to say above.

Remember your involvement with epicure? i will not put it here for all to see.
posted 7 weeks ago
  15 dieseldog
destry - this has been in the news since day 1 of the annoucement. holder's problem with the mark rich pardon. hillary has 1 problem...bill's connection with his overseas contacts.

Would-be attorney general Eric Holder haunted by Marc Rich pardon
Republicans say they're surprised that Barack Obama's transition team didn't gauge their feelings about the likely nominee.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-holder20-2008nov20,0,532485.story?track=rss
posted 7 weeks ago
I'm fairly new here, and have had nothing but positive interactions with most of those in official capacity here. However, in my short time here it's quite apparent that destry is arrogant, rude, and a bit of a megalomaniac. One would think that someone representing Hubdub would have the notion that this isn't about "them".

For someone in a position of authority to say to a member "I wonder in Australia do they have a device called a spell checker. What it does is it checks the accuracy of the words you are trying to use and alerts you to a potential misspelled word, which makes your writing very difficult to understand, and shows a lack of intelligence which I assume you possess." is inexcusable, and if this were my company would not be tolerated. It may be one thing for regular members to get into the fray, but we really expect some conflict management skills from an administrator that go beyond personal attacks. Everyone else seems to have that ability.
posted 6 weeks ago
  17 curios
@drzinernet the gentleman juut recently settled a similar prediction but flatly refuses to unsupend this on i realy dont know why other admins do not get involved here? And i thank you for your support
posted 6 weeks ago
  18 destry[Admin]
ATTORNEY GENERAL

* Eric Holder, a former Justice Department official under the Clinton Administration, has accepted a conditional offer to become head of the Justice Department, Democratic officials said.

Holder, who served as deputy attorney general under Clinton, has been a senior legal advisor to Obama's campaign and helped vet Obama's vice presidential candidates.

Before the offer becomes official, Obama's team is seeking to determine if Holder can win Senate confirmation with broad bipartisan support.
posted 6 weeks ago
  19 destry[Admin]
@curios and any one else I offended. Sometimes an apology can lose its meaning with a lot of words and explanation, so therefore I am going to do my best to keep it short. I am sorry for the tone and wording of the precious comment in this market.. I meant no disrespect. I am humbled by my bad actions and hope I can begin to re earn the trust and confidence of each user I might have offended.
posted 6 weeks ago
  20 dieseldog
destry - first let me say i'm glad to see your man enough to apologise. i truly hope you mean what you say this time. i'll be honest at times i think you have something againest me. maybe it's because we've had problems in the past. you can be very arroagant and rude. as an employee of HD you don't have that luxuray. i know your human and people insulting you has to effect the way you react. your the only admin who reacts improperly. i've been disrespectful to donnel and ryan in the past and they never reacted the way you have with me and others.

i've seen other admins get treated like dirt and they manage to respond politely or not at all. maybe your not cut out to be an admin. no need in going over the past, but this is not the first time you have gone over the line. i've talked to serval people who had problems with you..not just in the comments. lets take this question for example. it was the only cabinet question that was suspended. you wouldn't or couldn't see where that wasn't right. see comment 8. now you decide to unsuspend it. thats what frustates me the most about you. your not consistent in the way you decide things. i was thinking about pulling a lucidstates like strike on the political catagoery to try and get some consistency out of you.

i'm willing to put all this behind me and hope other members are as well. we all need to work togeather and be more civil towards each other. i'm not claiming i'm an angel...i've over reacted more than once, it's no excuse but i'm not representing HD. ALL I WANT IS A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE ADMINS.

i hope your not offended by anything i just said, that wasn't my intention. just getting some things off my chest. i was asked not to harrass you in the comments and i've been trying my best not to. lets hope this is a new beginning and we don't have to re-visit it.
posted 6 weeks ago
  21 curios
thank you diesel ,
well put and two destry i wonder how long your apologies will last , i think if the truth be known you have read my i am leaving in article in the forum as i saying there i can prove all accusations made ......believe me i am NOT A FOOL thanks again diesel
posted 6 weeks ago
  22 curios
opps too
posted 6 weeks ago
  23 curios
@destry i am sure you did not mean this,
. I am sorry for the tone and wording of the precious comment in this market (its not precious)
i think you meant previous
see even you MAY have made a mistake!!!!!!!!!!!
posted 6 weeks ago
  24 randburg
@destry -- "I am sorry for the tone and wording of the precious comment in this market.. I meant no disrespect. I am humbled by my bad actions and hope I can begin to re earn the trust and confidence of each user I might have offended."

I hope that curios and the rest of us will accept your apology for the MANY TIMES that you have been arrogant and rude to curios, both in the comments sections and in email which he has shared with many of us. In the past few months, many of us have had to endure these untoward comments from you -- and mood swings -- with a regularity that does NOT make it pleasant to be on hubdub. Hubdub is not large enough to afford the departure of any more members due to comments like these.

You are an employee of this company and should possess adequate management skills to work pleasantly and productively with the members of this site, like all the other admins do. We respect your intelligence and capabilities, but not your moods. We are mostly a very friendly bunch...While we are opinionated and enjoy our debates IN THE COMMENTS, WHERE WE WANT THEM, we are really very easy to work with and love being on hubdub. That's why WE are here. Hopefully that will soon be the reason why YOU are here...

I am truly sorry that it was necessary for me to write this comment: it takes the fun out of hubdub for me. This is the responsibility of a senior admin, not a regular member.
posted 6 weeks ago

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