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What party will win the 2012 US Presidential Election?

Background: I am curious to see how this market would move over a four year period.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Republican
61%
Democrat
37%
Other
2%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Mon 5th Nov 2012 3:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Republican: 49%, Democrat: 50%, Other: 1%

Action history:

Created Fri 7th Nov 2008 10:45am PST by measure

Suspend date: Mon 5th Nov 2012 3:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (423)

22 hours ago
jank predicted Democrat (H$1,000 at 37%)
1 day ago
bipedprimate predicted Democrat (H$50 at 31%)
1 day ago
bipedprimate predicted Democrat (H$100 at 30%)
1 day ago
bipedprimate predicted Democrat (H$100 at 28%)
1 day ago
bones predicted Democrat (H$200 at 44%)

Comments (5)

Sheesh, you made this question early. We still got 4 more years tell we have to change again.
posted 43 weeks ago
  2 chuck
The last election market seemed like four years.
posted 20 weeks ago
'Frank' Democrats censor GOP mail
http://www.onenewsnow.com/Politics/Default.aspx?id=656824
posted 12 weeks ago
Hillary Clinton Now More Popular Than Barack Obama
Secretary of state viewed favorably by 62% of Americans, president by 56%

Hillary Clinton lost the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination to Barack Obama, but in one respect she now ranks ahead of Obama. The president's current favorable rating of 56% is down 22 percentage points since January. Over the same time span, Clinton's favorable rating has changed little, and now, at 62%, it exceeds Obama's.

....

The change in the relative popularity of Clinton and Obama since January may reflect the realities of their new roles. Obama came into office as president with a 78% favorable rating, among the highest Gallup has measured since it began tracking favorability in 1992. But after nearly nine months in office in which he has made or confronted difficult decisions -- ranging from the economic stimulus package, to the auto industry bailout, to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, to health insurance reform, Obama's support has declined. His favorable rating now stands at 56%, and has fallen 10 points just since the last reading, in July. (Obama's job approval rating has followed a similar downward trajectory.)

[More at the link...]
posted 5 weeks ago
Psst, some hints on how to earn great point on this site, this site is filled with teabaggers, so bet everything on the teabaggers losing in elections. Just don't bet on the governators races. Obama will win in a LBJ landslide.
posted 2 weeks ago

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