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Who will President Obama choose has Secretary of Education?

Settled as ARNE DUNCAN

Background: As Barack Obama begins to assess his potential picks for his cabinet, Secretary of Education is not one of the positions you would necessarily expect him to focus on first. But American parents especially may wish to study up on the possible candidates. After all, if Obama's campaign proposals are to be fulfilled, Margaret Spellings' successor could oversee a dramatic $18 billion overhaul of the nation's public education system over the next few years.
Whoever gets the spot, Obama's new Ed chief should expect to face a huge test right off in the contentious reauthorization of the federal No Child Left Behind act, considered to be one of the first priorities in Congress come January. Down the road, he or she can also plan to direct the founding of hundreds of new charter schools and the spread of universal pre-K nationwide, as well as a continued focus on increased accountability and a better trained teacher corps.
So whom will President-Elect Obama tap for this enormous task? That announcement isn't expected until at least early next week. But here's a look at some of the presumed contenders.

JOEL KLEIN
Current position: New York City schools chancellor

Why he could be tapped: In New York, the former Clinton appointee has distinguished himself as a keen reformer under Mayor Michael Bloomberg. An attorney by training, Klein has also shown himself adept at working with unlikely partners — union leaders as well as the Rev. Al Sharpton — and is a major proponent of charter schools, a keystone in Obama's education agenda.

Why the job will go to someone else: With Bloomberg recently getting the OK to seek a third term as mayor, Klein may prefer to stay put and finish the job of reforming New York's 1,500 schools.

LINDA DARLING-HAMMOND
Current position: Top Obama education adviser

Why she could be tapped: Her day job is professor of education at Stanford, but for the past year, she has been a key voice defining Obama's positions on issues such as school restructuring, teacher quality and educational equity.

Why the job will go to someone else: Darling-Hammond is not popular among education reformers, particularly those to the center-right. That's because her views on issues such as merit pay vs. teacher tenure are more conventional than even Obama's. So if the President-elect really wants to shake things up on the education front, Darling-Hammond won't likely be his choice.

ARNE DUNCAN
Current position: CEO of Chicago Public Schools

Why he could be tapped: Like Klein in New York, Duncan has made a name for himself as a reformer in a big city, accomplishments candidate Obama highlighted several times on the campaign trail. He's also a close friend and basketball buddy of the President-elect. And unlike Darling-Hammond, Duncan could represent a more neutral selection.

Why the job will go to someone else: A Duncan nod could risk upsetting Chicago mayor Richard Daley, a vocal advocate of the Chicago schools' chief.

JAMES HUNT, JR.
Current position: Former governor of North Carolina

Why he could be tapped: As governor, Hunt focused attention on one of Obama's key schools proposals: expanding early childhood education, especially to low-income and minority children. He also worked hard to improve teacher quality, testing innovations in this area of perpetual struggle for American schools. On the federal level, he recently served on Spellings' Commission on the Future of Higher Education.

Why the job will go to someone else: Hunt has not been especially outspoken on how to expand charter schools and other alternatives to traditional public schools, which appears to be a priority for the Obama team.

COLIN POWELL
Current position: Former Secretary of State in the first Bush Administration

Why he could be tapped: Since leaving the State Dept. in 2004, Gen. Powell and his wife Alma founded America's Promise Alliance, a group dedicated to improving the well-being of the country's young people. The non-profit has been especially strong on finding a means to combat the country's dropout crisis. Plus, Powell made a high-profile endorsement of Obama in the final weeks of the campaign.

Why the job will go to someone else: On the day after Obama's Nov. 4 victory, Powell told reporters that he has not been asked nor does he plan to return to government service, preferring to instead leave the new Cabinet open to a younger generation.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
JOEL KLEIN
2%
LINDA DARLING-HAMMOND
6%
ARNE DUNCAN
80%
JAMES HUNT, JR.
1%
COLIN POWELL
2%
Someone Else
8%
Settled as ARNE DUNCAN on Tue 16th Dec 2008 11:09am PST

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 16th Dec 2008 11:09am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 16th Dec 2008 9:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: JOEL KLEIN: 15%, LINDA DARLING-HAMMOND: 15%, ARNE DUNCAN: 15%, JAMES HUNT, JR.: 20%, COLIN POWELL: 15%, Someone Else: 20%

Action history:

Created Fri 7th Nov 2008 3:22pm PST by destry[Admin]
Changed Description Fri 7th Nov 2008 3:34pm PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... over the next few years. <.<br/> Whoever gets the spot, ... a better trained teacher corps. <.<br/> So whom will President- ... some of the presumed contenders. <.<br/> <br/> /> <b>JOEL KLEIN <</b><br/> Current position: New York City schools chancellor <<br/> <br/> Why he could ... at working with unlikely partners — union leaders as well as the Rev. Al Sharpton — and is a major proponent ... in Obama's education agenda. <.<br/> <br/> Why the job ... York's 1,500 schools. <.<br/> <br/> /> <b>LINDA DARLING-HAMMOND <</b><br/> Current position: Top Obama education adviser <<br/> <br/> Why she could ... , teacher quality and educational equity. <.<br/> <br/> Why the job ... 't likely be his choice. <.<br/> <br/> /> <b>ARNE DUNCAN <</b><br/> Current position: CEO of Chicago Public Schools <<br/> <br/> Why he could ... represent a more neutral selection. <.<br/> <br/> Why the job ... of the Chicago schools' chief. <.<br/> /> <b>JAMES HUNT, JR. <.</b><br/> <br/> Current position: Former governor of North Carolina <<br/> <br/> Why he could ... the Future of Higher Education. <.<br/> <br/> Why the job ... priority for the Obama team. <.<br/> <br/> /> <b>JANET NAPOLITANO <</b><br/> Current position: Arizona's governor <<br/> <br/> Why she could ... education spending over 10 years. <.<br/> <br/> Why the job ... 2010, making her a potential — and popular — candidate to vie for Arizona ... General in the Obama administration. <.<br/> <br/> /> <b>COLIN POWELL <</b><br/> Current position: Former Secretary ... in the first Bush Administration <<br/> <br/> Why he could ... final weeks of the campaign. <.<br/> <br/> Why the job
Settlement requested Tue 16th Dec 2008 8:54am PST by coolkraft: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/16/us/politics/16educ.html?_r=1

Obama selected Arne Duncan
Settlement requested Tue 16th Dec 2008 9:09am PST by cici: announced by Obama on TV
Settled as 'ARNE DUNCAN' Tue 16th Dec 2008 11:09am PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 16th Dec 2008 11:09am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 16th Dec 2008 9:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (128)

48 weeks ago
wahsfrog predicted ARNE DUNCAN (H$100 at 94%)
48 weeks ago
a_shoe predicted ARNE DUNCAN (H$82 at 80%)
48 weeks ago
jettero2112 predicted ARNE DUNCAN (H$500 at 79%)
48 weeks ago
excontender predicted ARNE DUNCAN (H$1,800 at 73%)
48 weeks ago
coolkraft predicted ARNE DUNCAN (H$750 at 65%)

Comments (14)

  1 chatarra
@ Destry - Nice job on setting up the question. Easy to read and understand the reasons why these individuals might become Secretary of Education.
posted 1 year ago
  2 aland
@Destry - I agree. Great question set-up.
posted 1 year ago
Caroline Kennedy - Secretary of Education
her name has come up many times..and it has been announced she is on the short list for this or Ambassador to the UN
posted 1 year ago
Here's some nice background information: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/05/opinion/05brooks.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
posted 50 weeks ago
  5 coolkraft
this bet was placed at 9:40 am EST..why do you say it was placed one hour ago?
posted 48 weeks ago
  6 cici
this has been announced by Obama on TV
posted 48 weeks ago
  7 coolkraft
I asked for settlement with a news article...no response
posted 48 weeks ago
Yeah...It just landed on the Huffington Post. Does the question have to sit here for 5 more weeks or can it be settled now?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/15/arne-duncan-to-be-named-o_n_151251.html
posted 48 weeks ago
  10 coolkraft
of course the DJIA might be more important......
posted 48 weeks ago
Ahhh...coolkraft, you have a point.

It's slowed my ability to bet though...all my money is tied up out there awaiting settlement.

I think I'll treat myself to a shrimp and lobster brunch while I wait...
posted 48 weeks ago
  12 cici
Ohhhh, can I have brunch with you????
posted 48 weeks ago
  13 coolkraft
me too....my favorite two foods
posted 48 weeks ago
  14 coolkraft
finally got my little pot of gold.....ok cici and conspiracy I'm buying!!!!
posted 48 weeks ago

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