Created Sat 8th Nov 2008 3pm PST by 
pixelpaws
pixelpaws 
What will the US Unemployment Rate be in December 2009?
Background: With the sudden spike in November 2008 to 6.5% unemployment, there's an increasing fear. Some analysts are saying 7%, but others are forecasting 8.5% and one estimate is a whopping 11.9%. So, when the unemployment report is released in December 2009, what number will that report have?
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| 6.5% or below |
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| 6.6% to 7.0% |
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| 7.1% to 7.5% |
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| 7.6% to 8.0% |
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| 8.1% to 9.0% |
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| 9.1% to 10.0% |
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| 10.1% to 12.0% |
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| 12.1% to 14.0% |
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| 14.1% or higher |
|
Question suspends in 1 week
- Activity: H$192,779 |
- Predictions: 346 |
Comments: 3
Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)
Initial likelihoods: 6.5% or below: 5%, 6.6% to 7.0%: 20%, 7.1% to 7.5%: 20%, 7.6% to 8.0%: 20%, 8.1% to 9.0%: 15%, 9.1% to 10.0%: 10%, 10.1% to 12.0%: 5%, 12.1% to 14.0%: 3%, 14.1% or higher: 2%
Action history:
Created Sat 8th Nov 2008 3pm PST by pixelpaws
pixelpaws
Suspended Sun 8th Nov 5:29am PST by 
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: Odds seem terribly off for this question...current unemployment is at 10.2%, yet the starting option was only 5%, while lower unemployment options (that we haven't seen in some time) are listed at 20%
Looks like a flawed set of starting odds
bayoubear: Odds seem terribly off for this question...current unemployment is at 10.2%, yet the starting option was only 5%, while lower unemployment options (that we haven't seen in some time) are listed at 20%
Looks like a flawed set of starting odds
Unsuspended Sun 8th Nov 5:33am PST by bayoubear: Never mind the suspension....just realized how 'old' the question was...these odds were fairly reasonable at that time...sorry for the goof...
bayoubear: Never mind the suspension....just realized how 'old' the question was...these odds were fairly reasonable at that time...sorry for the goof... 
Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (1 week to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (346)
divakaleigh
predicted 12.1% to 14.0% (H$20 at 1%)
rogerkni
predicted 10.1% to 12.0% (H$2,000 at 89%)
predicted 10.1% to 12.0% (H$20 at 85%)Comments (3)
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This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
CNBC 27 weeks ago
Y/Y March -13.7 -13.2 +6.5 Retail sales Y/Y March -4.0 -2.4 +16.3 Unemployment (mln) Q1 7.11 5.29 5.31 Real disposable income Y/Y March -0.1 +1.6 +5.1 Real average wage Y/Y March -5.7 -2.4 +12.8
score: 10
Reuters 27 weeks ago
the economic conditions in all our markets are deteriorating with a substantial drop in industrial production and growing unemployment. We anticipate that these developments could have a negative impact on the telecom sector. Therefore, while defending
score: 10
Wall Street Journal Online 27 weeks ago
By Phil Izzo Rising unemployment rates are likely to pressure on an already beleaguered housing market. The from a year earlier to $169,000, the National Association of Realtors reported on Tuesday. The decline was
score: 10
Forbes.com 27 weeks ago
Y/Y March -13.7 -13.2 +6.5 Retail sales Y/Y March -4.0 -2.4 +16.3 Unemployment (mln) Q1 7.11 5.29 5.31 Real disposable income Y/Y March -0.1 +1.6 +5.1 Real average wage Y/Y March -5.7 -2.4 +12.8
score: 10
Forbes.com 27 weeks ago
percent. * Car production down 14.3 percent year-on-year. COMMENTARY: DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE 'Inflation and unemployment both showed the same picture.' 'Higher unemployment and lower inflation are both connected to the recession and
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This does not count the underemployed (at 10% right now), or people who don't technically fall into the unemployed stat because they are no longer looking for work (4-5% now). So 12% technical unemployment would be about 27% real unemployment, which obviously is slightly more than 1 in 4. Scary shit.
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