Created Sat 8th Nov 2008 3pm PST by

pixelpaws Level 13, Psychic (H$68,799)

What will the US Unemployment Rate be in December 2009?

Settled as 9.1% to 10.0%

As reported last week, the unemployment rate stood at 10.0%, a surprising drop for most.

This is the data for November, but as the question asked, it is the rate reported 'in December', not the rate reported 'for December'.

Background:

Background: With the sudden spike in November 2008 to 6.5% unemployment, there's an increasing fear. Some analysts are saying 7%, but others are forecasting 8.5% and one estimate is a whopping 11.9%. So, when the unemployment report is released in December 2009, what number will that report have?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

6.5% or below

6.6% to 7.0%

7.1% to 7.5%

7.6% to 8.0%

8.1% to 9.0%

9.1% to 10.0%

10.1% to 12.0%

96%

12.1% to 14.0%

14.1% or higher

Settled as 9.1% to 10.0% on Wed 9th Dec 2009 3:59am PST

Activity: H$201,744
Predictions: 361
Comments: 5

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 9th Dec 2009 3:59am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 6.5% or below: 5%, 6.6% to 7.0%: 20%, 7.1% to 7.5%: 20%, 7.6% to 8.0%: 20%, 8.1% to 9.0%: 15%, 9.1% to 10.0%: 10%, 10.1% to 12.0%: 5%, 12.1% to 14.0%: 3%, 14.1% or higher: 2%

Action history:

Created Sat 8th Nov 2008 3pm PST by

pixelpaws Level 13, Psychic (H$68,799)

Suspended Sun 8th Nov 2009 5:29am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Odds seem terribly off for this question...current unemployment is at 10.2%, yet the starting option was only 5%, while lower unemployment options (that we haven't seen in some time) are listed at 20%

Looks like a flawed set of starting odds

Unsuspended Sun 8th Nov 2009 5:33am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Never mind the suspension....just realized how 'old' the question was...these odds were fairly reasonable at that time...sorry for the goof...

Suspended Tue 1st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as '9.1% to 10.0%' Wed 9th Dec 2009 3:59am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: As reported last week, the unemployment rate stood at 10.0%, a surprising drop for most.

This is the data for November, but as the question asked, it is the rate reported 'in December', not the rate reported 'for December'.

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Predictions (361)

10 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted 9.1% to 10.0% (H$100 at 4%)

10 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 14, Prophet (H$221,973)

predicted 10.1% to 12.0% (H$1,500 at 85%)

10 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 14, Prophet (H$221,973)

predicted 10.1% to 12.0% (H$2,000 at 93%)

11 weeks ago

mirella Level 1, Newbie (H$166)

predicted 10.1% to 12.0% (H$100 at 91%)

11 weeks ago

mirella Level 1, Newbie (H$166)

predicted 10.1% to 12.0% (H$20 at 91%)

Comments (5)

eliminati Level 15, Seer (H$484,920)

Another aura of death here. If this freaking thing goes over 12%, I see potential doom. That would mean 12% of adults, not retired or disabled, who are "actively seeking" work are not able to find it. THATS ONE IN 8 PEOPLE.

This does not count the underemployed (at 10% right now), or people who don't technically fall into the unemployed stat because they are no longer looking for work (4-5% now). So 12% technical unemployment would be about 27% real unemployment, which obviously is slightly more than 1 in 4. Scary shit.

posted 42 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$164,215)

unemployment is 11 % in Florida

posted 16 weeks ago

pixelpaws Level 13, Psychic (H$68,799)

I'm still amazed when I see my year-old questions generating interest on the site. I wish I hadn't even needed to include the options at the upper extremes.

posted 13 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Well, I may get lucky and get rewarded for Not cashing in my large 9.1 to 10% stake, now that the November rate dropped to 10! With 96% of the wager on 10.1 or more here, there could be some serious wealth re-distribution.... :-)

posted 9 weeks ago

mickeydaniel Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,294,455)

The reference in this question for Nov. 2008 references November's numbers at 6.5%, so the logical intent of this question should be the results for December 2009, not November 2009. Even the most recent comments support this interpretation without any dispute. This question should not settle based on the November numbers as indicated.

posted 8 weeks ago

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