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What will the US Unemployment Rate be in December 2009?

Background: With the sudden spike in November 2008 to 6.5% unemployment, there's an increasing fear. Some analysts are saying 7%, but others are forecasting 8.5% and one estimate is a whopping 11.9%. So, when the unemployment report is released in December 2009, what number will that report have?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
6.5% or below
0%
6.6% to 7.0%
0%
7.1% to 7.5%
0%
7.6% to 8.0%
0%
8.1% to 9.0%
1%
9.1% to 10.0%
23%
10.1% to 12.0%
76%
12.1% to 14.0%
0%
14.1% or higher
0%
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 6.5% or below: 5%, 6.6% to 7.0%: 20%, 7.1% to 7.5%: 20%, 7.6% to 8.0%: 20%, 8.1% to 9.0%: 15%, 9.1% to 10.0%: 10%, 10.1% to 12.0%: 5%, 12.1% to 14.0%: 3%, 14.1% or higher: 2%

Action history:

Created Sat 8th Nov 2008 3pm PST by pixelpaws

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (337)

29 mins ago
zargonddg predicted 9.1% to 10.0% (H$250 at 21%)
2 hours ago
hfl13 predicted 10.1% to 12.0% (H$1,111 at 78%)
12 hours ago
rogerkni predicted 12.1% to 14.0% (H$20 at 0%)
1 day ago
dnicolo1 predicted 10.1% to 12.0% (H$20 at 93%)
1 day ago
zargonddg predicted 9.1% to 10.0% (H$100 at 2%)

Comments (2)

  1 eliminati
Another aura of death here. If this freaking thing goes over 12%, I see potential doom. That would mean 12% of adults, not retired or disabled, who are "actively seeking" work are not able to find it. THATS ONE IN 8 PEOPLE.

This does not count the underemployed (at 10% right now), or people who don't technically fall into the unemployed stat because they are no longer looking for work (4-5% now). So 12% technical unemployment would be about 27% real unemployment, which obviously is slightly more than 1 in 4. Scary shit.
posted 28 weeks ago
  2 coolkraft
unemployment is 11 % in Florida
posted 3 weeks ago

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