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Who will Obama select as the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency?

Settled as Other person not described above

Background: Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (D/CIA) serves as the head of the Central Intelligence Agency. The D/CIA reports to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). The Director is nominated by the President, with the concurring or nonconcurring recommendation from the Director of National Intelligence and must be confirmed by majority vote from the Senate. Statute does not specifically include active military personnel from being nominated for the position nor does it exclude them.

The Director of the Central Intelligence Agency serves as the head of the Central Intelligence Agency and reports to the Director of National Intelligence. The CIA director's responsibilities include:

* Collecting intelligence through human sources and by other appropriate means, except that he shall have no police, subpoena, or law enforcement powers or internal security functions;
* Correlating and evaluating intelligence related to the national security and providing appropriate dissemination of such intelligence;
* Providing overall direction for and coordination of the collection of national intelligence outside the United States through human sources by elements of the Intelligence Community authorized to undertake such collection and, in coordination with other departments, agencies, or elements of the United States Government which are authorized to undertake such collection, ensuring that the most effective use is made of resources and that appropriate account is taken of the risks to the United States and those involved in such collection; and
* Performing such other functions and duties related to intelligence affecting the national security as the President or the Director of National Intelligence may direct.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Hank Crumpton (Former NCS Officer)
0%
John O. Brennan (Advisor to Obama)
0%
Michael Hayden (Current D/CIA)
0%
William O. Studeman, USN (Former Dir. of NSA)
1%
Silvestre Reyes (Chair of the HPSCI)
0%
Jay Rockefeller (Chair of the SSCI)
0%
Donald Kerr (Current PDDNI)
0%
Anthony Lake (Fmr National Security Advisor)
0%
Cofer Black (Fmr Dir of the CIA's CTC)
0%
Other person not described above
97%
Settled as Other person not described above on Fri 9th Jan 10:41am PST

Suspend date: Sat 4th Jul 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 9th Jan 10:41am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 8th Jan 9am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Hank Crumpton (Former NCS Officer): 25%, John O. Brennan (Advisor to Obama): 10%, Michael Hayden (Current D/CIA): 5%, William O. Studeman, USN (Former Dir. of NSA) : 10%, Silvestre Reyes (Chair of the HPSCI): 5%, Jay Rockefeller (Chair of the SSCI): 5%, Donald Kerr (Current PDDNI) : 10%, Anthony Lake (Fmr National Security Advisor): 5%, Cofer Black (Fmr Dir of the CIA's CTC): 10%, Other person not described above: 15%

Action history:

Created Sat 8th Nov 2008 4:46pm PST by thedrake000
Settlement requested Mon 5th Jan 11:59am PST by thedrake000: http://twitter.com/BreakingNewsOn/status/1097773946
Suspended Mon 5th Jan 12pm PST by destry[Admin]: Pending settlement
Settled as 'Other person not described above' Fri 9th Jan 10:41am PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Sat 4th Jul 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 9th Jan 10:41am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 8th Jan 9am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (144)

45 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Other person not described above (H$500 at 84%)
45 weeks ago
ollieg predicted Other person not described above (H$500 at 82%)
46 weeks ago
vidal1 predicted William O. Studeman, USN (Former Dir. of NSA) (H$100 at 4%)
46 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted Other person not described above (H$500 at 82%)
48 weeks ago
thedrake000 predicted Other person not described above (H$157 at 82%)

Comments (11)

  3 frood
I'm curious about who people would put in the "Other" category, if their thinking is coalescing around an individual or two. Such as Steve Kappes, current DD/CIA
posted 1 year ago
"The intelligence-transition team is led by former National Counterterrorism Center chief John Brennan and former CIA intelligence-analysis director Jami Miscik, say officials close to the matter. Mr. Brennan is viewed as a potential candidate for a top intelligence post. Ms. Miscik left amid a slew of departures from the CIA under then-Director Porter Goss." WSJ, 11/11/08
posted 1 year ago
  6 iowagal
You are missing some options.

http://www.dodbuzz.com/2008/11/14/obamas-intel-possibilities/

Are you going to add these?
posted 1 year ago
More evidence supporting a Brennan appointment: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/11/a_clue_as_to_the_identity_of_t.php
posted 1 year ago
@iowagal Good article, thanks for posting it. I'm not going to change the question answers at this late stage. I'm also limited to 10 options so I can't include anymore at this point. I suppose the "Other person not described above" option is the best bet for those candidates.
posted 1 year ago
  9 lola
Brennan Pulls Out Of Running For CIA Chief

WASHINGTON — John Brennan, President-elect Barack Obama's top adviser on intelligence, took his name out of the running Tuesday for any intelligence position in the new administration. Brennan wrote in a Nov. 25 letter to Obama that he did not want to be a distraction. His potential appointment has raised a firestorm in liberal blogs that associate him with the Bush administration's interrogation, detention and rendition policies.

"It is with profound regret that I respectfully ask that my name be withdrawn from consideration for a position within the intelligence community. The challenges ahead of our nation are too daunting, and the role of the CIA too critical, for there to be any distraction from the vital work that lays ahead," Brennan wrote.

Obama's advisers had grown increasingly concerned in recent days over online blogs that accused Brennan of condoning harsh interrogation tactics on terror suspects, including waterboarding, which critics consider torture.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/25/brennan-pulls-out-of-runn_n_146419.html
posted 51 weeks ago
  10 lola
It is widely expected that Mr. Obama will replace Michael V. Hayden, the C.I.A. director. Among those mentioned as possible candidates for the job are Stephen R. Kappes, a C.I.A. veteran who is the deputy director; Tim Roemer, a former congressman from Indiana who was a member of the Sept. 11 commission; Senator Chuck Hagel, the Nebraska Republican who is retiring from the Senate in January; and Jack Devine, a former head of the agency’s clandestine service who left the C.I.A. before the Sept. 11 attacks.

The flap over Mr. Brennan, who served as a chief of staff to George J. Tenet when he ran the C.I.A., was the biggest glitch so far in what has been an otherwise smooth transition for Mr. Obama. Some C.I.A. veterans suggest that the president-elect may have difficulty finding a candidate who can be embraced by both veteran officials at the agency and the left flank of the Democratic Party.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/03/us/politics/03intel.html
posted 50 weeks ago
  11 lola
Obama picks Panetta for CIA director
Associated Press
January 6, 2009

Washington -- Two Democratic officials say President-elect Barack Obama has chosen former Clinton White House chief of staff Leon Panetta to run the CIA. Panetta was a surprise pick for the post, with no experience in the intelligence world. An Obama transition official and another Democrat disclosed his nomination on a condition of anonymity since it was not yet public. Panetta was director of the Office of Management and Budget and a longtime congressman from California. He served on the Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan panel that released a report at the end of 2006 with dozens of recommendations for the reversing course in the Iraq war.

Panetta currently directs with his wife, Sylvia, the Leon & Sylvia Panetta Institute for Public Policy, based at Cal State Monterey Bay -- a university he helped establish on the site of the former U.S. Army base, Fort Ord. Meanwhile, Democratic sources also said that retired Admiral Dennis Blair is Obama's choice to be director of national intelligence. Nomination of the former head of U.S. Pacific Command has been expected. Blair served in the Navy for 34 years and he was chief of the U.S. Pacific Command during the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Blair is also a China expert, and he was an associate director for military support at the CIA.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-cia-panetta-2009jan06,0,3965605.story
posted 45 weeks ago

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