Created Sat 8th Nov 2008 4:56pm PST by

destry [Admin]

Presidential Inauguration: How many words long will President Obama's address be?

Settled as 2250 or more words

2366 by my count

Background:

Background: Newly sworn-in presidents give a speech referred to as an inaugural address. Five presidents gave no address: Tyler, Fillmore, Andrew Johnson, Arthur, and Ford. In each of these cases, the incoming President was succeeding a President who had either resigned or died in office. Fifty-five addresses have been given by 37 presidents. George Washington's second address was the shortest (135 words) and William Henry Harrison delivered the longest (8,495 words). In recent years Inauguration addresses have been varying between the low of 1300 words for JFK to 2500 words for Ronald Reagan. President Barack Obama is known as a skilled orator, so how long will his speech be.
Click here for more questions and predictions about Obama.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. A transcript of the speech will be used to determine correct amount of words.

Forecast history %

Less than 1250 words

1250 to less than 1500 words

1500 to less than 1600 words

1600 to less than 1700 words

1700 to less than 1800 words

1800 to less than 1900 words

1900 to less than 2000 words

2000 to less than 2100 words

2100 to less than 2250 words

2250 or more words

80%

Settled as 2250 or more words on Tue 20th Jan 11:51am PST

Activity: H$40,429
Predictions: 143
Comments: 8

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 6am PST
Settlement date: Tue 20th Jan 11:51am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th Jan 6am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Less than 1250 words: 5%, 1250 to less than 1500 words: 10%, 1500 to less than 1600 words: 10%, 1600 to less than 1700 words: 10%, 1700 to less than 1800 words: 10%, 1800 to less than 1900 words: 10%, 1900 to less than 2000 words: 15%, 2000 to less than 2100 words: 10%, 2100 to less than 2250 words: 10%, 2250 or more words: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 8th Nov 2008 4:56pm PST by

destry [Admin]

Suspended Tue 20th Jan 6am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Tue 20th Jan 10:44am PST by

chuck

: I counted 2401.

Link to PDF:
http://www.c-span.org/pdf/obama_inaguralAddress.pdf

Settled as '2250 or more words' Tue 20th Jan 11:51am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: 2366 by my count

Changed Description Thu 22nd Jan 1:19pm PST by

lesley [Admin]

: show details

... the longest (8,495 words~~). ~~ ). In recent years Inauguration addresses ... 2500 words for Ronald Reagan~~. ~~ . President Barack Obama is known ... long will his speech be. . <a href="http://www.hubdub.com/tag/barack_obama">Click here for more questions and predictions about Obama.</a>

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Predictions (143)

43 weeks ago

jhouseholder Level 11, Legend (H$15,289)

predicted 2250 or more words (H$20 at 80%)

43 weeks ago

chatterbox670 Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,206)

predicted 2250 or more words (H$50 at 80%)

43 weeks ago

rockerjjt Level 8, Super-Pro (H$7,207)

predicted 2100 to less than 2250 words (H$20 at 4%)

43 weeks ago

donnamil Level 15, Seer (H$283,180)

predicted 2250 or more words (H$50 at 82%)

43 weeks ago

chuck

predicted 2250 or more words (H$1,000 at 80%)

Comments (8)

nadine_dr_computer Level 7, Pro (H$3,207)

Does the phrase; Yes We can count as three words everytime he uses it? or just 3 words (joking)

posted 1 year ago

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,576,278)

Here is a link listing the length of some previous addresses:
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0878085.html

posted 1 year ago

clarky Level 7, Pro (H$3,226)

I love him but he does go on a bit so I'm going long.....

posted 44 weeks ago

nigeleccles [Admin]

I originally read this market as "How many long words will Obama use?". As the former editor of Harvard Law Review he does like long words.

posted 44 weeks ago

lcsnor Level 15, Seer (H$274,832)

I guess we all have to hope he doesn't use exactly, say 2000 words or this question will have 2 correct answers.

posted 43 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

The options read in a way to where there is no overlap. In the above comment it suggests there would be 2 correct answers for a situation where his speech is 2000 words long exactly, that is NOT true. By reading the option text you will see that the only option that is correct is 2000 to less than 2100. The option that reads 1900 to less than 2000 would not be correct because 2000 is NOT less than 2000.
In the future if you feel there is a potential settlement problem with a market, please click flag for review and list your concern, that way an email is automatically generated to category editor.

posted 43 weeks ago

conspiracy2riot Level 14, Prophet (H$100,114)

the dude is loquacious but his message is poetry. he's gonna give the people their money's worth.

posted 43 weeks ago

conspiracy2riot Level 14, Prophet (H$100,114)

WOOHOO!!! Hits it out of the park!

posted 43 weeks ago

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