Created Tue 11th Nov 2008 6:26am PST by

reuters Level 7, Pro (H$3,320)

Which stock will rise the most in the month of December, AIG or GM?

Settled as AIG's share price rises more than GM's

Settled as 'AIG's share price rises more' since although both stocks fell in value, AIG fell a lesser percentage than GM

AIG fell 22.9%
GM fell 35.4%

Based on prices as given on question and closing prices on Dec 31
GM 3.39 down from 5.24
AIG 1.57 down from 2.01

Background:

Question created by

Background: Markets are divided on what kind of bailout General Motors will be offered, if any, as its share price drops to pre-great depression levels. Washington has plonked $150 billion into AIG since September but the stock lingers at a little over $2 per share.

Fridays close (11/28) was GM $5.24 and AIG $2.01. This will be the starting basis for settlement. Settlement will be based on percentage of gain.

Question will suspend at the opening of business on Monday, 12/29/08 and will settle on the basis of the closing price for 12/31/08. If both stocks have lost value, settlement will be based on which one retained most of its value based on the starting data.

Settlement details:Biggest percentage rise as shown on Reuters.com

If both lose value, settlement will be based on the least amount of loss.

Forecast history %

GM's share price rises more than AIG's

AIG's share price rises more than GM's

91%

Settled as AIG's share price rises more than GM's on Wed 31st Dec 2008 1:52pm PST

Activity: H$60,773
Predictions: 284
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Mon 29th Dec 2008 6:30am PST
Settlement date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 1:52pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 29th Dec 2008 6:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: GM's share price rises more than AIG's : 50%, AIG's share price rises more than GM's: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 11th Nov 2008 6:26am PST by

reuters Level 7, Pro (H$3,320)

Changed Description Mon 1st Dec 2008 6:16pm PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... little over $2 per share. Fridays close (11/28) was GM $5.24 and AIG $2.01. This will be the starting basis for settlement. Question will suspend at the opening of business on Monday, 12/29/08 and will settle on the basis of the closing price for 12/31/08.

Changed Suspend date Mon 1st Dec 2008 6:18pm PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2008-12-30 20:59:00"

Changed Description Thu 11th Dec 2008 3:56am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... the starting basis for settlement. Settlement will be based on percentage of gain. Question will suspend ... price for 12/31/08. If both stocks have lost value, settlement will be based on which one retained most of its value based on the starting data.

Changed Settlement info Thu 11th Dec 2008 3:56am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... as shown on Reuters.com If both lose value, settlement will be based on the least amount of loss.

Suspended Mon 29th Dec 2008 6:30am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 31st Dec 2008 1:10pm PST by

deanthoreau: aig fell 22.9%
gm fell 35.4%

based on prices as given on question and closing prices on dec 31
gm 3.39
aig 2.01

Settled as 'AIG's share price rises more than GM's' Wed 31st Dec 2008 1:52pm PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Settled as 'AIG's share price rises more' since although both stocks fell in value, AIG fell a lesser percentage than GM

AIG fell 22.9%
GM fell 35.4%

Based on prices as given on question and closing prices on Dec 31
GM 3.39 down from 5.24
AIG 1.57 down from 2.01

hide

Get widget!

Predictions (284)

46 weeks ago

arcadicus Level 1, Newbie (H$57)

predicted AIG's share price rises more than GM's (H$20 at 91%)

46 weeks ago

vidal1 Level 9, Expert (H$8,624)

predicted AIG's share price rises more than GM's (H$100 at 90%)

46 weeks ago

jamest Level 15, Seer (H$345,077)

predicted AIG's share price rises more than GM's (H$1,650 at 88%)

46 weeks ago

jamest Level 15, Seer (H$345,077)

predicted AIG's share price rises more than GM's (H$1,200 at 84%)

46 weeks ago

jamest Level 15, Seer (H$345,077)

predicted AIG's share price rises more than GM's (H$2,500 at 76%)

Comments (3)

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$306,682)

I have Fridays close as GM $5.24 and AIG $2.01. Will these be the starting prices? Also shouldn't this suspend at least a few days before the end of the month? Damn good question.

posted 50 weeks ago

pixelpaws Level 13, Psychic (H$66,804)

I presume that if they both are down for the month, the better-performing stock is still considered the winner?

posted 50 weeks ago

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$306,682)

Nice observation PP. Surely the question is unambiguous. If neither rise then all stakes are refunded. Maybe it should have said "Which stock will perform best?" Currently GM down 13% and AIG down 18%. Its like watching a couple of tired old nags race to the knackers yard.

posted 50 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...

By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service

Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags

score: 10

The year the music stopped

Toronto Star Online 47 weeks ago

brokerages to avoid a total meltdown of the global financial system? That the world's biggest industrial corporation, General Motors Corp., would claim it had only enough cash to make it to the end of the year? And that all the debt-financed spending by

score: 10

CA-BUSINESS Summary

Globe Investor 48 weeks ago

at C$54.70, and miner Goldcorp Inc , which was down 9 percent at C$35.81. Sun Life eyeing AIG pieces: report TORONTO (Reuters) - Sun Life Financial is eyeing pieces of American International Group as the Canadian insurer sits on a war chest of funds, the

score: 10

That '70s Show Rerun?

TheStreet.com 48 weeks ago

American International Group Incorporated| AIG Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation| ANH Fannie Mae| FNM When I understudied for Doug Kass in The Edge, his RealMoney Silver trading diary, way back in February

score: 10

GM still a part of the Dow, at least for now

CNBC 48 weeks ago

DES MOINES, Iowa - The keepers of the Dow Jones industrial average are not eager to boot General Motors Corp. off the index of 30 leading industrial firms, but that could change if the government gives billions of dollars to the troubled auto maker. On

score: 10

GM board has concluded bankruptcy not an option

Reuters 49 weeks ago

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp said on Thursday that its board has considered bankruptcy and concluded it is not a 'viable option'. Highlight: * Says board meeting frequently, considering all options for company