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Will the World Health Organization recognize a cure for HIV/AIDS before November 13, 2018?
Background: Note: This is a long-term market.
On November 13, 2008, German hematologist Gero Huetter claimed to have cured an HIV-infection in a patient. The patient was a 42-year old American citizen with advanced leukemia in addition to HIV. Huetter injected the patient with bone marrow from a donor who was naturally resistant to HIV. After 20 months, Huetter says that the patient has not exhibited signs of HIV.
Bone marrow transplants kill about one-third of all patients who receive them. For this reason, "they can't be justified ethically." Also, Huetter's claims have not been verified. Before antivirals were introduced in the 1990's, bone marrow transplants were tried as a desparate method to halt the AIDS epidemic.
This market will settle as 'yes,' if the WHO, or its successor, recognizes any 'cure' for AIDS or HIV before November 13, 2018. 'Treatment' will not count for this market.
Additional information:
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1858843,00.html
On November 13, 2008, German hematologist Gero Huetter claimed to have cured an HIV-infection in a patient. The patient was a 42-year old American citizen with advanced leukemia in addition to HIV. Huetter injected the patient with bone marrow from a donor who was naturally resistant to HIV. After 20 months, Huetter says that the patient has not exhibited signs of HIV.
Bone marrow transplants kill about one-third of all patients who receive them. For this reason, "they can't be justified ethically." Also, Huetter's claims have not been verified. Before antivirals were introduced in the 1990's, bone marrow transplants were tried as a desparate method to halt the AIDS epidemic.
This market will settle as 'yes,' if the WHO, or its successor, recognizes any 'cure' for AIDS or HIV before November 13, 2018. 'Treatment' will not count for this market.
Additional information:
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1858843,00.html
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| Yes |
| ||||
| No |
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Question suspends in 8 years
- Activity: H$1,500 |
- Predictions: 8 |
Comments: 1
Suspend date: Mon 12th Nov 2018 9pm PST (8 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%
Action history:
Changed Description Thu 13th Nov 2008 4:22pm PST by 
tisha![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
tisha: show details ... is a long-term market. <.<br/> <br/> On November 13, ... not exhibited signs of HIV. <.<br/> <br/> Bone marrow transplants ... to halt the AIDS epidemic. <.<br/> <br/> This market will ... or HIV before November 13, 20082018. 'Treatment' will not count for this market. <.<br/> <br/> Additional information: <:<br/> <a href="http://www.
Suspend date: Mon 12th Nov 2018 9pm PST (8 years to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (8)
29 weeks ago
paddy112 predicted No (H$986 at 58%)
biloxibeachboy
predicted No (H$100 at 58%)
frogchop
predicted No (H$20 at 57%)
predicted Yes (H$20 at 43%)
jhouseholder
predicted Yes (H$20 at 43%)Comments (1)
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