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Will Hillary Clinton be Secretary of State?

Settled as Yes

President Elect Obama has officially nominated her for the position. The confirmation process seems like a certainity, therefore market is being settled using 99.9% rule, and can always be resettled if something unforeseen was to occur between now and confirmation.

Background:

Background: There are numerous reports that Hillary Clinton may be under consideration for Secretary of State in the Obama administration.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/13/hillary-clinton-secretary_n_143735.html


Category Editor Clarification
This market will settle based on the official nomination by President Elect Obama of Hillary as his Secretary of State.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
99%
No
1%
Settled as Yes on Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:22am PST

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 1:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:22am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Fri 14th Nov 2008 12:41am PST by monsti88
Suspended Fri 14th Nov 2008 3:44am PST by notablenotices[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Duplicate of http://www.hubdub.com/m22375/Will_Hillary_Clinton_become_the_next_Secretary_of_State_in_the_US
Unsuspended Fri 14th Nov 2008 10:20am PST by destry[Admin]
Settlement requested Fri 21st Nov 2008 1:18pm PST by pixelpaws: Fox News is reporting that Hillary has accepted the post

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2008/11/21/report-hillary-clinton-accepts-secretary-state-nod/
Settlement requested Sat 22nd Nov 2008 7:10am PST by deathwish: Confirmed by New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/22/us/politics/22obama.html?_r=1&hp
Suspended Mon 1st Dec 2008 7:43am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Settlement requested Mon 1st Dec 2008 7:54am PST by louise_r_marston: Announcement made today by Barack Obama: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7758673.stm
Settlement requested Mon 1st Dec 2008 9:28am PST by rbrog77: It's her

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27983003/
Settlement requested Mon 1st Dec 2008 9:48am PST by randburg: Hillary Clinton Secretary of State:

http://www.radionetherlands.nl/currentaffairs/081201-obama-clinton
Settled as 'Yes' Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:22am PST by destry[Admin]: President Elect Obama has officially nominated her for the position. The confirmation process seems like a certainity, therefore market is being settled using 99.9% rule, and can always be resettled if something unforeseen was to occur between now and confirmation.

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 1:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:22am PST details

 

Predictions (889)

50 weeks ago
mrmike predicted Yes (H$1,700 at 99%)
50 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Yes (H$288 at 97%)
50 weeks ago
athex predicted Yes (H$200 at 97%)
50 weeks ago
tr_966 predicted Yes (H$100 at 97%)
50 weeks ago
phinphan27 predicted No (H$50 at 2%)

Comments (65)

I don't see what he gains at this point by appointing her to such a position. I mean cmon, the election's over and he doesn't have to appease the former Hillary voters. Not to mention, she still carries all the baggage she always did from Arkansas to the Bubba Clinton White House. Supposedly Bill Richardson is being looked at now, and he's a much more stable, rational personality, much more suited to State than Hil by far. Gotta go No on this one, unless BHO has really lost his marbles!
posted 1 year ago
One reason I can think why he might want to do this would be that Hillary could be his main contender for the Democrat ticket in four years. If he makes Hillary part of his administration, then it might be more difficult for her to say that there were problems that she would have solved better...
posted 1 year ago
I would have agreed with you before today raiders - but now that he's come out and said that he's meeting with her and willing to offer her the position, he can't NOT offer her the position. At this point, he's basically offered it to her -- now the question becomes whether she wants to accept it.

BTW notables, the incumbent party doesn't put forward a serious nominee against the president. 2012 certainly is not a factor in the decision. Here's a nice roundup of opinion as to why she might be tapped: http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/11/why_would_obama_really_want_hillary_clinton_for_secretary_of_state.html
posted 1 year ago
@jenniandboys:

Perhaps you are too young to remember, but Senator Edward (Teddy) Kennedy attempted to unseat incumbent President Carter in 1980. He was considered a serious contender at the time.
posted 1 year ago
  5 emmag
I think she would make a great Secretary of State. The world loves the Clintons. And apparently there is a lot of competition in the Senate for committee chairs so she's not a shoe-in for those. And as raider said, apparently Richardson is in the running. Unless, he's giving Clinton first pick on Health. It's fun watching all this, isn't it?
posted 1 year ago
  6 dieseldog
i think he wants hillary out of the senate. he won't have to battle over health care with her. as emmag said she won't have to battle for anything in the senate..also she is still the "jr" senator from NY and will be for awhile. as NN said if obama has a rocky first term it makes it harder for hillary to run againest him. lets not forget obama's chief of staff is ron emanual...like or dislike the guy he's very good at the washington game, and knows the clinton's very well. i hope she stays in the senate. be more entertaining for us right wingers. :O)
posted 1 year ago
  7 emmag
diesel, it's Rahm, not Ron. But I agree with you on most everything else you said. Except the last sentence (which didn't have a subject, by the way) :)
posted 1 year ago
  8 sachaf
i think hillary will be great scretary for state and u.s.a. people loves to hillary.i think in future she will be the scretary of state
posted 1 year ago
  9 shadowfax
good comments and perspectives by all here, appreciate it.
posted 1 year ago
  10 dieseldog
emmang - what i ment by "be more entertaining for us right wingers" is if hillary stays in the senate she can be a pain in obama's neck. she'll dinfinetly push for health care for all. imho that won't pass and will hurt the backers of any such plan. obama ran to the left of hillary to get the nomination. now he has to govern from the center to be successful. the republican's are in a weakened state..they pose no real threat to obama. obama's problems will come from within the dem party. he has to try and keep all factions of the dem party happy. obama got roughly 53% of the vote. he's gotta do something for the far left in his first 2 years (if not sooner) so they don't go nuts. if he makes them mad they'll have a canidate to run againest him in 2012.( buchanan vs bush sr) they could also stay at home and cost him any chance of re-election.

rumors say hillary won't take the job. bill has to many connections oversea's. the clinton's will have to turn over all the paper work to those connections. i say those people don't know the clinton's very well. it would be a problem if the rep's controled the senate. the dem's will push her through with no problem. the clinton's only turn over what they want when they want. can you say.."missing billing records."
posted 1 year ago
  11 chatarra
Now that Obama has won the election, I have been sleeping like a baby.

I sleep for about 2 hours, then wake up and cry. . .
posted 1 year ago
@chatarra:

I am confident that Barack's socialism will work like a charm.

(Of course I have never seen charms work...)
posted 1 year ago
  13 pixelpaws
I certainly hope not. That would put her fourth in the line to succeed the President and, while it would be an unprecedented situation to have the President, VP, Speaker of the House, and President Pro Tempore of the Senate all die in such a short period that she would take office, I don't want Senator Clinton anywhere near the White House.
posted 1 year ago
Only thing anyone gains is turning this into the Clinton administration redux
I think Obama just did what he did prior to announcing his VP choice had a private meeting with Hillary and said..
not you..back off...
If he appoints either bill or hillary to anything he can just kiss the ability to get anything accomplished goodbye. Hiw years will be bogged down with one clinton scandal after another...last thing he needs. Of course top GOP says he would approve of Hillary...he knows it will become a lameduck 4 yr presidency!
posted 1 year ago
  15 randburg
Has everyone forgotten that Hillary knows JUST ABOUT EVERYONE overseas, from eight years experience in the White House? I think she ran much of the White House during that period -- especially when Bill had his pants down -- and she was the one that travelled overseas extensively with Albright. When Mandela was elected in South Africa, Hillary, Albright, and entourage arrived in South Africa a few times "without Bill". Any surprise?

Hillary is well-qualified to be America's number one diplomat. She ALREADY knows almost everyone of significance overseas and would "hit the ground running".
posted 1 year ago
  16 randburg
"If he appoints either bill or hillary to anything he can just kiss the ability to get anything accomplished goodbye. Hiw years will be bogged down with one clinton scandal after another..."

I'm curious, so I'll bite: As Secretary of State, what sort of scandal would you anticipate of Hillary?
posted 1 year ago
A couple of you said that the USA loves hilliary. If thats so then why did she lose the election?
@randburg, maybe bill clinton will be involved in another scandal! Or maybe she will be involved with Obama!
@pixelpaws, i think the odds of those 4 dying and her taking over are slim. Even if Obama did get assassinated as some seem to think, Biden is liked by democrats and republicans alike! I dont agree with him on anything, but after watching his debate i thought he was a much better canidate than Obama. He will do fine.
posted 1 year ago
Of course she knows almost everyone overseas.....so does Bill, he is doing business with them. Did we forget when hillary was speaking out against UAE purchasing the USA ports that Bill yes past president billy was consulting with UAE to help them do the purchase. You all seem to forget Bill is part of the package. Much as I loved him as president, the man does not know how to take a backseat..
His "foreign affairs" will really screw up this presidency
posted 1 year ago
  19 emmag
dragon,18 million people voted for her. That's a lot of friends! And according to the Wall Street Journal, women prefer Hillary Clinton two-to-one for 2012. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/women-voters-prefer-hillary-clinton/story.aspx?guid=%7B202417EF-4CBF-4FF5-895B-BFC98CF6D3FA%7D&dist=hppr
posted 1 year ago
  20 emmag
I should have said "two-to-one over Sara Palin."
posted 1 year ago
@nadine..... you loved im as a president? Am i speaking to mrs lewisnky here because other than that i cant think of a single reason anyone would say that.
@emmag 18 million people is a small number compared to Obamas, or even McCains supporters. Still i guess she is 9 times more liked than ralph nader.
posted 1 year ago
umm dragon...do u remember a little thing called "budget surplus??? that is the thing that bush spent and put us several trillion dollars more into debt.
Do you remember a little thing called environment? u know that thing being destroyed by the presidents past 8 years.
Oh and dont let me fail to mention do you have any idea what the price of gasoline was 8 years ago?
The price of FOOD?
Personally, if all you remember abt Bill's presidency is a BJ; then might I suggest you read a few more books on the Clinton era.
posted 1 year ago
I lived through the clinton era, and i dont need to read any books on the subject. Gas was about 2$ a gallon if i remeber correclty. I saw lower than that today. You seem to think that Bush has any control over our budget, surplus or non surplus. Same for enviornment, although admitidly bush did refuse to agree to that deal a couple years back that would require us to lower our carbon admissions. Still the terms of that agreement were unfavorable to the american people, and would have required the govenment to outstep its power. "The price of FOOD?" Yes because clinton got to put a price on your food.
posted 1 year ago
  24 destry[Admin]
@dragonfangxl - You know there is this great thing called the internet, you can actually do some searching, there is a even website you might have heard about it - google. You would learn that during Clinton's years in the White House gas was on average 1.10 or so a gallon. You would also learn that a President can do quite a bit about budget surpluses or deficits.
I voted for Bush 41, Bush 43 the first and second time. This time I voted for Obama. I believe that sometimes we overlook the importance of a congress being in power, but as John McCain himself said the Republicans did not act very Republican during their reign of power.
posted 1 year ago
ok so bush had no control? This is what you said "Bush has no control"

we know that,,reason we are now a Socialist country (did u notice that BUSH is the one who told Paulson BUY stock with the 700 billion bailout money in the banks...Stock means ownership, that means the Country will own banks,,las i looked in my social studies books that is Socialism.
You said it right Bush had no control, he was merely a person in an office he was never elected to, and had no self control and merely nodded his head yes like the bobble dolls to everything Cheyney and Rove said!
Have you noticed..that gas prices are dropping like crazy now that the Democrats have enough of a majority in the house and senate to pass a windfall profit tax? Have you noticed that most of the Big Boys on Wall street and Texas have sold a bunch of their stock in oil companies and took massive profits and now dont care what happens?
You are so upset about Clinton getting a BJ,,you should be more upset about Bush cause he
!@#%!%ed every person in the USA!
posted 1 year ago
When did i say that bush has no control? i did a page search and fond that the only person to say that was you. I feel misquoted! And bush can spout out all the advice he wants but he doesnt get to decide if they buy stocks or loan money. Congress votes on what they want to do about it. Also, even if we put this 700 billion dollars into all these companys stocks that they wanted they wouldnt have controlling interest. Have YOU noticed that they were rising like crazy when the democrats had a majority in the house? Democrats dont want to stop taxing gas prices, in fact they want to increase taxes. In there own words "You dont cure an addictiont to oil by lowering the cost of it"
posted 1 year ago
"comment 23
23 dragonfangxl
I lived through the clinton era, and i dont need to read any books on the subject. Gas was about 2$ a gallon if i remeber correclty. I saw lower than that today. You seem to think that Bush has any control over our budget, surplus or non surplus"

"you seem to think bush has any control...."

What r u saying there?
I was saying bush had control over the deficit,,by your disagreement one would make a logical assumption that you feel he has no control....
oh cmon dragon say it isn't so...........
Dragon the US may not have a controlling interest but ownership non the less.
stock is the ownership in a corporation.
Wehn one owns stock one has a direct ownership in the company.
If the USA buys stock with the 700 billion dollars they are buying ownership into companies; in this case banks.
That is ownership
no matter how u look at it or smell it ownership in a company by a goverment equals socialism.

Golly gee Gosh I like disagreeing with you dragon...
posted 1 year ago
  28 dieseldog
after pondering the whole deal i think obama is in a no win situation. if he offers the job and hillary takes it does anybody think he has the nads to fire her? if obama is having a rough time she can resign and run againest him. she can pretty much dictate his foreign policy. love or hate the clinton's their goal is bill's leagacy imho. as for scandals hillary could get in..remeber ducking bullet fire after landing in bosina? be honest if you have ever been shot at (especially when your child is with you) would you forget when and where it happen? the reappearence of the missing billing records, white water, secert health care negotiations, etc etc. then theres always hubby bill. he might go off the talking points at any given time. obama will have to hold weekly press briefings to say bill don't speak for the administration . imho the best case for obama is if he did what nadine suggested...had a private meeting with Hillary and said..not you back off. i guess time will tell. goodluck mr obama.
posted 1 year ago
  29 kruijs[Power User]
@dragon, you are constantly saying that Bush has no powers and does not decide anything. It's all the congress' job, and therefor everything is the democrats' fault. and now your saying you did not even say that.
posted 1 year ago
  30 frank2877
Obama should select Hillary as Secretary of State. No Secretary of State has ever been elected President in the U.S.! Ever! Plus "An Obama adviser threw out one final rationale: It’s better to have the Clintons inside the tent than outside, causing trouble."
posted 1 year ago
  31 johnoday
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/17/hillary-clinton-secretary-of-state
"Hillary Clinton to accept Obama's offer of secretary of state job"
posted 1 year ago
How is it possible that the Guardian would get that scoop and not a US paper?
posted 1 year ago
  33 curios
Coz in America they are slow on real news
posted 1 year ago
  34 johnoday
lol, really tho^^
posted 1 year ago
  35 dieseldog
if the Guardian is considered a MSM source this should settle.
posted 1 year ago
There is only one (UK) newspaper making an unsourced claim -- we will need to wait for something a little more official to come out. So far everything I see says they're still vetting Bill's business dealings.
posted 1 year ago
  37 nextpaige
@frank2877: Yep, no Secretary of State has EVER become President. Except Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Quincy Adams, Van Buren, and Buchanan. But just those 6 out of 66! :)
posted 1 year ago
  38 frank2877
LOL! OK! Ya got me :-) Change to" in recent times."
posted 1 year ago
Yeah there's been some interesting commentary about how the ascendancy of the Vice Presidency has really made the State position less of a presidential stepping stone than it was in the earlier days.
posted 1 year ago
  40 coolkraft
John Kerry will take over Biden's old job presiding over the senate as a consolation prize
posted 1 year ago
  41 coolkraft
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/11/kerry_expected.html

my error Kerry will take over as chairman of foreign relations committee replacing Biden...
posted 1 year ago
  42 faisal
President Clinton will submit to vetting in order to allow Senator Clinton to be offered the State job?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/19/clinton.foundation/index.html?eref=rss_politics&iref=polticker
posted 1 year ago
@kruijis and nadine
I wasnt saying that bush DOES have any control over things, i was just saying that he was using quotes i hadnt said. Doesnt mean i dont agree with that i was just commenting on the misquoting. buying stocks would give them a small ownership over the company, that is true. However if they chose not to buy stocks, then the americans money isnt going to be returned. Also, even if they didnt buy the stocks, the whole point of the bailout is that the government keeps a firm eye on the company and tells them what to do and when. Buying stocks only means that in the end, americans get at least part of our money back.
Also @destry "You would also learn that a President can do quite a bit about budget surpluses or deficits. " Like what? Give me some specifics. What do you think the president can do about how congress makes the budget? All bush gets to do is say "Yes" or "No" on the final outcome.
posted 1 year ago
  44 yonemoto
Hm. People betting on this seem to realize that Clinton is Constitutionally disallowed from being the Secretary of State:

Article 1, Section Six:

"No Senator or Representative shall, during the Time for which he was elected, be appointed to any civil Office under the Authority of the United States which shall have been created, or the Emoluments whereof shall have been increased during such time"

The pay rate for the secretary of state was increased in 2007.
posted 1 year ago
  45 yonemoto
Of course, no one follows the constitution anymore.
posted 1 year ago
Where is a definition of civil office?
posted 1 year ago
  47 yonemoto
Article 3.

"The President shall be Commander in Chief ... he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices..."

In fact, two Republican presidents (Nixon, GHW Bush) have gotten around this by retroactively restricting the pay of these officers, but the Democrats have always challenged the constitutionality of this. We'll see if the shoe fits now that it's on the other aisle.
posted 1 year ago
  48 yonemoto
on the other hand, Clinton is a she, so maybe it doesn't apply.
posted 1 year ago
  49 bayoubear[Admin]
OK...just as a point to be cleared up....does this question require her to just be nominated, or to be approved and become the Sec. of St.
posted 52 weeks ago
  50 coolkraft
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/22/us/politics/22obama.html?_r=1&hp

will she get confirmation?
posted 52 weeks ago
  51 yonemoto
Uhm, can I have my money back, because the category editor changed the criteria... The title said, 'will she be'. By that I thought the market would settle when she was nominated AND confirmed.
posted 52 weeks ago
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/clinton-to-accept-secretary-of-state-job/?hp

Mrs. Clinton’s spokesman, Philippe Reines, issued a statement Friday afternoon cautioning that the nomination is not final. “We’re still in discussions, which are very much on track,” he said. “Any reports beyond that are premature.”
posted 52 weeks ago
This is funny: http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/11/21/ccoffey_1121/

Mr. Obama, Take My Senator, Please!

Like some current and former U.S. Senators (Obama, Biden & Daschle), Hillary Clinton appears to be in line for a promotion.

New Yorkers should rejoice, because it means she will no longer be the steward of the Upstate New York economy.

When Senator Clinton ran for Senate in 2000, she promised economic revitalization for New Yorkers living north of New York City and its suburbs. She even went so far as to promise 200,000 new jobs for the region. New Yorkers believed her and gave her a chance.

Eight years later, and Hillary Clinton still hasn’t created 200,000 jobs. In fact, Upstate New York has lost 20,000 private sector jobs while manufacturing jobs, once the life-blood of Upstate, have declined by 24%.* Obviously, she did not fulfill her pledge to New Yorkers.
posted 52 weeks ago
take our governor too... we can't afford her spending sprees anymore!!!
posted 52 weeks ago
  56 dieseldog
great question baybear. admin says all it takes is for obama to nominate her. i'm guessing thats how all cabinet postions will be settled..just getting nominated.

yonemoto - you can flag the question and ask the admin to refund your wager, or email him at destry@hubdub.com make your case and see what happens.
posted 52 weeks ago
  57 destry[Admin]
If you would like to have your money tied up in a suspend status from the time she is nominated until she is confirmed that seems ridiculous to me. IF this President was going into an unfriendly confirmation process maybe there would be some reason for waiting on settlement. No one seemed to object to the election markets being settled, even though the Electoral College hasn't even met yet. Sometimes we will settle markets in which the outcome is a certainty so people do not have large amounts of money tied up for long periods of time, that doesn't benefit hubdub in any way.
posted 51 weeks ago
  58 yonemoto
you guys can't unilaterally do that, it's not right. People should see that the suspend date is jan 1, which means that there are AT LEAST 20 days before settlement. And understand that a difficult confirmation process is a risk. THAT IS PART OF THE QUESTION. You can't change the question after people have put their money in. THAT IS NOT FAIR.

Anyways, I'm leaving hubdub, because the rules keep changing from under me.
posted 51 weeks ago
  59 dieseldog
i'm sure all HD's know i'm the defender of question maker's rights. in this case monsti88 had the suspend date as jan 1st. then at one point there was a Category Editor Clarification and the settlement time was changed. i have also stated my views on what should happen when the admin's do that. i've seen other admins say clarification made, those who bet BEFORE the clarification can ask for a refund. i would think that applies here.
posted 51 weeks ago
  60 curios
here is a case where it was generally excepted that the result or intention was already known was created and no attempt was made by a cat editor to extend the time as he should have in no way do i point the finger at the creator, it is the only one of this kind was ignored.
http://www.hubdub.com/m22626/Will_President_Elect_Obama_announce_any_major_cabinet_appointments_this_week_Nov_17th__Nov_21st
posted 51 weeks ago
This blog is interesting, I don't know how accurate it might be:

Confidential witness ready to blow up Clinton and Holder confirmations with dirt on the Marc Rich pardon

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2008/11/red-alert-confidential-witness-ready-to.html

Neither the name nor sex of the witness will be revealed at this time. The witness is prepared to testify and should testify in the confirmation hearings of Hillary Clinton and Eric Holder.
posted 51 weeks ago
http://www.alamo-girl.com/0321.htm has a list of issues that Hillary has in her closet - these might come up at the confirmation hearings, or during the vetting process. Of course, with the Democrat majority in congress, it may not make much difference.

Here are some of them:
Billing records missing for 2 years (subpoenaed, crucial to FDIC investigation) appeared in White House living area and turned over several days after statute of limitation expired.

Bruce Lindsey's notes, subpoenaed but not turned over until the day after the Senate's Whitewater Committee authorization expired.

Hillary Clinton and White House lawyer talks claimed as executive privilege, then attorney client privilege, appealed to Supreme Court - ordered turned over.

Existence of diaries subpoenaed in April 97, were "concealed" to October 97 and have not been released. Second set also not disclosed until three weeks before committee's deadline expired.

Existence of videotapes subpoenaed in April 97 (coffees and fund-raisers) was not disclosed but then turned over October '97.

FBI files from 91 (Chinese efforts to influence U.S. elections) were turned over five days after the Senate committee ended its hearings.

...
posted 51 weeks ago
  63 ryanj
To be honest after the primary, I think Clinton's been vetted more than enough by every single Republican strategist on Earth.....
posted 51 weeks ago
  64 lanceo23
Hillary is still a very powerful figure in Washington. The pres. elect shows her respect and takes advantage of her connections at the same time, plus there is no better way to keep an eye on her.
posted 50 weeks ago
  65 Erik
Did anyone else note Clinton's heavy eyelids as Kerry droned on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and?
posted 44 weeks ago

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