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Presidential Inauguration: Will the Obama's wear hats? If so, whom?

Current forecast: No hat on Barack, Michelle or the girls (39% chance1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No hat on Barack, Michelle or the girls with a probability of 39% (up 1% in last 1 day)

Hats are a traditional accessory for the Inauguration. Some President's have chosen not to wear a hat but it is a rarity. The question is, who in the Obama family will be wearing hats.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. If either daughter wears a hat it is counted as daughters wearing a hat.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

No hat on Barack, Michelle or the girls
39%
Hats on all four of them
13%
Hat on Barack and Michelle
2%
Hat on Barack only
2%
Hat on Michelle only
4%
Hats on daughters only
22%
Hats on Michelle and daughters only
17%
Hats on Barack and daughters only
2%
Activity: H$28,154
Question suspends in 1 week

Suspend date: Mon 19th Jan 7:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: No hat on Barack, Michelle or the girls: 10%, Hats on all four of them: 10%, Hat on Barack and Michelle: 10%, Hat on Barack only: 15%, Hat on Michelle only: 15%, Hats on daughters only: 20%, Hats on Michelle and daughters only: 10%, Hats on Barack and daughters only: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 15th Nov 2008 4:33pm PST by nadine_dr_computer

Suspend date: Mon 19th Jan 7:59pm PST (1 week to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (141)

141 predictions

5 hours ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted No hat on Barack, Michelle or the girls (H$750 at 43%)
4 days ago
rbrog77 predicted Hats on daughters only (H$250 at 26%)
1 week ago
vidal1 predicted Hats on Michelle and daughters only (H$100 at 22%)
1 week ago
horsefeathers predicted Hats on Michelle and daughters only (H$10 at 23%)
1 week ago
horsefeathers predicted No hat on Barack, Michelle or the girls (H$20 at 36%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 johnoday
Lol did Clinton wear a hat?
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 cici
Where I come from no woman of color would go to an important ceremony without being topped off with the most beautiful hat. Never.
posted 7 weeks ago
And yet after a fairly lengthy search, I can't find a single picture of Michelle in a hat...
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 cici
Hmmmm...
posted 7 weeks ago
Any pictures of her in church jenni?
posted 7 weeks ago
Just as a clarification because this is where the JFK inauguration myth gets tripped up: if it is reported that Obama wears a hat during some portion of the day (like on the parade to the swearing in), then it will still settle as if he wore a hat on that day, even if he is not wearing it during his oath or inaugural address, right?
posted 7 weeks ago
@capecod - If you're asking for a clarification you need to flag it to the catEd.
posted 7 weeks ago
  9 faisal
Some history of DC weather (including mid-January):

http://www.kiat.net/dc/weather.html
posted 1 week ago

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