Created Sun 16th Nov 2008 5:48am PST by
curios
All questions » Politics » Other Politics » 
WILL the SOMALI GOVERMENT give in to the insurgents ?
Current forecast: 56% chance

Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 56% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)
MOGADISHU, SOMALIA (AP) - The Somali government is close to collapse because disputes within its ranks have allowed armed Islamic insurgents to take control of much of the country, the president said.
President Abdullahi Yusuf's remarks to about 100 Somali lawmakers in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, late Saturday represent the first admission by any official that the government is losing control.
Hours earlier, a radical Islamic group seized another Somali port town, consolidating its control over a southwestern region that borders the Somali capital
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/16/somali-president-government-on-verge-of-collapse/
Category Editor Clarification: Excellent question, curios. But in need of a couple points being cleared up. First off, the suspend date Nov 17 (Somalia time) will be the expected settlement date (if settled as No). Next, the phrase "give in" is a little open-ended. However, from the article:
"Yusuf said his government only had control of the capital and the southwestern town of Baidoa, which is the seat of Parliament."
So this will settle as Yes if the government gives up or hands over control of BOTH Baidoa and Mogadishu to the insurgents, or if the government itself is taken over by the insurgents (through election, coup, etc.).
President Abdullahi Yusuf's remarks to about 100 Somali lawmakers in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, late Saturday represent the first admission by any official that the government is losing control.
Hours earlier, a radical Islamic group seized another Somali port town, consolidating its control over a southwestern region that borders the Somali capital
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/16/somali-president-government-on-verge-of-collapse/
Category Editor Clarification: Excellent question, curios. But in need of a couple points being cleared up. First off, the suspend date Nov 17 (Somalia time) will be the expected settlement date (if settled as No). Next, the phrase "give in" is a little open-ended. However, from the article:
"Yusuf said his government only had control of the capital and the southwestern town of Baidoa, which is the seat of Parliament."
So this will settle as Yes if the government gives up or hands over control of BOTH Baidoa and Mogadishu to the insurgents, or if the government itself is taken over by the insurgents (through election, coup, etc.).
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Activity: H$2,940
Question suspends in 44 weeks
Suspend date: Mon 16th Nov 11:59pm PST (44 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
Created Sun 16th Nov 2008 5:48am PST by
curios
Changed Description Sun 16th Nov 2008 5:30pm PST by
infernalmachine![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
: show details
... the country, the president said. <.<br/> <br/> President Abdullahi Yusuf' ... the government is losing control. <.<br/> <br/> Hours earlier, a ... that borders the Somali capital <<br/> <br/> <a href="http:// ... -on-verge-of-collapse/</a><br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Clarification:</b> Excellent question, curios. But in need of a couple points being cleared up. First off, the suspend date Nov 17 (Somalia time) will be the expected settlement date (if settled as No). Next, the phrase "give in" is a little open-ended. However, from the article:<br/> <br/> "<i>Yusuf said his government only had control of the capital and the southwestern town of Baidoa, which is the seat of Parliament.</i>"<br/> <br/> So this will settle as Yes if the government gives up or hands over control of BOTH Baidoa and Mogadishu to the insurgents, or if the government itself is taken over by the insurgents (through election, coup, etc.).
Suspend date: Mon 16th Nov 11:59pm PST (44 weeks to go)
more info...
Predictions (8)
8 predictions
Comments (2)
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score: 10
News24.com 4 days ago
Mogadishu - Hundreds of Ethiopian soldiers have started pulling out of the Somali capital, witnesses said - amid fears the troops' departure will allow Islamic insurgents to take even more control of the lawless country. Ethiopia has been propping up
score: 10
Los Angeles Times 4 days ago
Reporting from Mogadishu, Somalia Hundreds of Ethiopian soldiers were pulling out of the Somali capital Friday, witnesses said, amid fears that the troops' departure would allow Islamic insurgents to take control of more of
score: 10
CBC 4 days ago
Ethiopian troops have begun withdrawing from neighbouring Somalia, raising fears their departure will empower a growing Islamic insurgency that forced the Somali president to resign last week. Witnesses said hundreds of Ethiopian soldiers were pulling
score: 10
Toronto Star Online 1 week ago
MOGADISHUâ'Somalia's president resigned yesterday after a four-year term in which his Western-backed government failed to extend its power throughout a country crippled by infighting and a strengthening Islamic insurgency. Abdullahi
score: 10
Washington Post 1 week ago
Al-Shabaab insurgents, seen, in a vehicle, which they claim was defected from the Somali government side, in Mogadishu, Somalia, Saturday, Dec. 27, 2008. Somali Islamist group of Ahlusunna seized Guriel town in central Somalia after a brief battle with
New in Politics » Other politics




where has my other one gone
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/somalia-falling-to-islamists/2008/11/17/1226770354404.html
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