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WILL the SOMALI GOVERMENT give in to the insurgents ?

Current forecast: 56% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 56% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

MOGADISHU, SOMALIA (AP) - The Somali government is close to collapse because disputes within its ranks have allowed armed Islamic insurgents to take control of much of the country, the president said.

President Abdullahi Yusuf's remarks to about 100 Somali lawmakers in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, late Saturday represent the first admission by any official that the government is losing control.

Hours earlier, a radical Islamic group seized another Somali port town, consolidating its control over a southwestern region that borders the Somali capital

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/16/somali-president-government-on-verge-of-collapse/

Category Editor Clarification: Excellent question, curios. But in need of a couple points being cleared up. First off, the suspend date Nov 17 (Somalia time) will be the expected settlement date (if settled as No). Next, the phrase "give in" is a little open-ended. However, from the article:

"Yusuf said his government only had control of the capital and the southwestern town of Baidoa, which is the seat of Parliament."

So this will settle as Yes if the government gives up or hands over control of BOTH Baidoa and Mogadishu to the insurgents, or if the government itself is taken over by the insurgents (through election, coup, etc.).


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
56%
No
44%
Activity: H$2,940
Question suspends in 44 weeks
 

Predictions (8)

8 predictions

6 weeks ago
ryanj[Admin] predicted Yes (H$100 at 56%)
7 weeks ago
curios predicted Yes (H$500 at 55%)
7 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted No (H$100 at 45%)
7 weeks ago
bernardo predicted No (H$20 at 50%)
7 weeks ago
opie predicted No (H$20 at 50%)

Comments (2)

  1 randburg
In Africa, when you are run out of town by insurgents wielding AK-47s, they don't tend to say "please"...
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 curios

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