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WILL the SOMALI GOVERMENT give in to the insurgents ?

Settled as No

The Somali government is still in Mogadishu.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200911191064.html

Background:

Background: MOGADISHU, SOMALIA (AP) - The Somali government is close to collapse because disputes within its ranks have allowed armed Islamic insurgents to take control of much of the country, the president said.

President Abdullahi Yusuf's remarks to about 100 Somali lawmakers in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, late Saturday represent the first admission by any official that the government is losing control.

Hours earlier, a radical Islamic group seized another Somali port town, consolidating its control over a southwestern region that borders the Somali capital

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/16/somali-president-government-on-verge-of-collapse/

Category Editor Clarification: Excellent question, curios. But in need of a couple points being cleared up. First off, the suspend date Nov 17 (Somalia time) will be the expected settlement date (if settled as No). Next, the phrase "give in" is a little open-ended. However, from the article:

"Yusuf said his government only had control of the capital and the southwestern town of Baidoa, which is the seat of Parliament."

So this will settle as Yes if the government gives up or hands over control of BOTH Baidoa and Mogadishu to the insurgents, or if the government itself is taken over by the insurgents (through election, coup, etc.).

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
12%
No
88%
Settled as No on Thu 26th Nov 2009 4:49am PST

Suspend date: Mon 16th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 26th Nov 2009 4:49am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 16th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sun 16th Nov 2008 5:48am PST by curios
Suspended Mon 16th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 25th Nov 2009 1:23am PST by fgadiuta: Somali govt did not give in. Still in Mogadishu: http://allafrica.com/stories/200911191064.html
Settled as 'No' Thu 26th Nov 2009 4:49am PST by sqlman[Admin]: The Somali government is still in Mogadishu.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200911191064.html

Suspend date: Mon 16th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 26th Nov 2009 4:49am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 16th Nov 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (60)

17 weeks ago
corbelle predicted No (H$100 at 88%)
17 weeks ago
hemantkpatel predicted No (H$1,000 at 88%)
17 weeks ago
bernardo predicted No (H$2,624 at 86%)
20 weeks ago
broxted predicted Yes (H$20 at 41%)
32 weeks ago
diplomat_111 predicted No (H$20 at 59%)

Comments (2)

  1 randburg
In Africa, when you are run out of town by insurgents wielding AK-47s, they don't tend to say "please"...
posted 1 year ago
  2 curios

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