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Will President Elect Obama announce any major cabinet appointments this week Nov 17th - Nov 21st?

Settled as No

President Elect Obama made NO OFFICIAL announcements for any major cabinet appointments in the given time frame.

Background:

There has been much speculation on when President Elect Obama will announce major cabinet appointments. Will he name any names by midnight Friday?

"Major cabinet positions" include Secretary of Agriculture, Interior, Commerce, Defense, Labor, Education, State, Energy, Transportation, Health & Human Services, Treasury, Homeland Security, Veterans Affairs, Housing & Urban Development, or Attorney General.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
29%
No
71%
Activity: H$56,460
Settled as No on Sat 22nd Nov 2008 12:28am PST

Suspend date: Fri 21st Nov 2008 6am PST Settlement date: Sat 22nd Nov 2008 12:28am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 21st Nov 2008 6am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Mon 17th Nov 2008 2:07am PST by tarpash
Changed Suspend date Mon 17th Nov 2008 9:05am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-20 09:00:00"
Settlement requested Wed 19th Nov 2008 7:46pm PST by capecodviking: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1935061320081120
Suspended Wed 19th Nov 2008 7:50pm PST by destry[Admin]: Pending review on incoming news.
Unsuspended Wed 19th Nov 2008 8:05pm PST by destry[Admin]: This market asks if Obama will annouce so far the leaks have been unofficial.
Settlement requested Thu 20th Nov 2008 5:37pm PST by curios: settle as yes please
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/11/20/ST2008112003210.html
Suspended Fri 21st Nov 2008 6am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 21st Nov 2008 4:27pm PST by curios: please settle dated the 20th

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/20/2425515.htm
Settlement requested Fri 21st Nov 2008 4:55pm PST by randburg: How about this:

Former Senate majority leader named as U.S. next health secretary


www.chinaview.cn 2008-11-20 05:37:42 Print

Special Report: U.S. presidential election 2008


WASHINGTON, Nov. 19 (Xinhua) -- Tom Daschle, former Senate majority (Democratic) leader during the Clinton's administration, was chosen by U.S. President-elect Barack Obama as the next secretary of health and human services, said a TV report on Wednesday.
Settlement requested Fri 21st Nov 2008 6:53pm PST by curios: plese settle
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5209634.ece
Settlement requested Fri 21st Nov 2008 7:04pm PST by curios: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24689420-23109,00.html
Settled as 'No' Sat 22nd Nov 2008 12:28am PST by destry[Admin]: President Elect Obama made NO OFFICIAL announcements for any major cabinet appointments in the given time frame.

Suspend date: Fri 21st Nov 2008 6am PST Settlement date: Sat 22nd Nov 2008 12:28am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 21st Nov 2008 6am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (119)

119 predictions

6 weeks ago
opie predicted No (H$50 at 71%)
6 weeks ago
emmag predicted No (H$500 at 70%)
6 weeks ago
emmag predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 32%)
6 weeks ago
emmag predicted No (H$750 at 70%)
6 weeks ago
rogi predicted No (H$100 at 70%)
more

Comments (33)

Great photo tarpash!
posted 7 weeks ago
What makes it funnier for me is that in tarpash's photo I count more or less 18 doors/drawers that can be opened, only slightly higher than the number of cabinet positions that he cites in his question! Must be tough for the Prez to run a meeting if they all want to talk. Of course they DO all want to talk. That's why they're in government, to talk and try to impose their plans on the Prez!

These 15 are the "major" cabinet positions? How many "minor" cabinet positions are there? Anybody know?

Anybody from New England want to mention that in certain areas, a "cabinet" means a milkshake? Or is that a frappe? (And they call Palin atavistic!?) ;)
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 tarpash
Thanks cheesenips! There are 15 "official" cabinet positions, but over the years, each President has added and abolished certain office or titles to fit his goals. Remember a couple of years ago Bush created the "intelligence czar"? That position is now considered a "cabinent-level" position, but not an official cabinet office. And with Obama proposing an "auto czar" that number could climb even higher.
posted 7 weeks ago
Janet Napolitano announced as head of Homeland Security in Reuters:http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1935061320081120
posted 6 weeks ago
A+ Destry! I almost requested settlement when NYT announced probability that Daschle was in for HHS. Stopped myself just before pressing Send button, after reading NYT article further. NYT reporter clearly said that was not official announcement. Thanks!
posted 6 weeks ago
So, tarpash, Vice President is considered an "unofficial" position by that definition? See wikipedia on the United States Cabinet where these positions are instead referred to as Cabinet-level administrative offices. btw, Bush created a "copyright czar" last week; I wonder if Obama will keep that going.
posted 6 weeks ago
  7 destry[Admin]
Here is a quote from a washington post article: Obama, it's important to note, has yet to publicly announce any members of his Cabinet and those close to his transition team insist that until those names are announced, nothing is set in stone. Eric Holder, for example, is widely regarded as the next Attorney General of the United States but Obama aides will say only that he is a top candidate for the post.
posted 6 weeks ago
  8 dieseldog
destry - so why not unsuspend the question?
posted 6 weeks ago
  9 randburg
transition officials have reluctantly confirmed that former senator Thomas A. Daschle (S.D.) will be nominated as secretary of health and human services
posted 6 weeks ago
  11 randburg
Obama names Daschle to lead health drive
Posted Thu Nov 20, 2008 6:34pm AEDT

President-elect Barack Obama has picked former Senate leader Tom Daschle to lead his high-risk drive to end the US health care crisis.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/20/2425515.htm
posted 6 weeks ago
  12 tarpash
The news articles provided by randburg and curios are not sufficient to settle this market. This question asks specifically if "Obama will announce any major cabinet appointments this week". He has not officially announced anything. He hasn't even UNOFFICIALLY announced anything. All the rumors have been supplied by transition officials and unnamed sources. At least this is the situation as of 6:40 pm on Friday.

Randburg's ABC news articles says: "CNN, citing multiple sources familiar with the appointments process, said Mr Obama was likely to name Democratic Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano." LIKELY to name randburg, not has named.

Curios's cited articles says: "Obama has not officially announced any Cabinet appointments."

If nothing official happens tonight, then this market should be settled as NO.
posted 6 weeks ago
I have to agree with tarpash concerning our governor, Napalitano... the local radio stations here in Arizona are quoting unnamed sources that say she will accept if the position is offered... and they are also quoting Janet as admitting that she's being vetted for the position.

As far as other cabinet picks go, I'll let the rest of you fight over those, but as of my Friday afternoon commute home through rush hour traffic Janet's new job was still unofficial
posted 6 weeks ago
I have no wagers here... I'm just interested in the topic as I'm anxious for Janet to get out of town before she drives our state any deeper into debt.
posted 6 weeks ago
  15 destry[Admin]
I have reviewed hundreds of news stories about cabinet announcements in the recent days. The one consistent thing is that NONE of the people being mentioned have been OFFICIALLY announced by President Elect Obama and therefore this market can not be settled yet.
posted 6 weeks ago
  16 randburg
How about this:

Former Senate majority leader named as U.S. next health secretary


www.chinaview.cn 2008-11-20 05:37:42 Print

Special Report: U.S. presidential election 2008


WASHINGTON, Nov. 19 (Xinhua) -- Tom Daschle, former Senate majority (Democratic) leader during the Clinton's administration, was chosen by U.S. President-elect Barack Obama as the next secretary of health and human services, said a TV report on Wednesday.
posted 6 weeks ago
  17 curios
Here is a better one have flagged
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5209634.ece
posted 6 weeks ago
According to http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5209634.ece Aides to Mr Obama would say only that she was “on track” to become America’s top diplomat.
and http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24689420-23109,00.html an official announcement expected after the November 27 Thanksgiving holiday.
posted 6 weeks ago
  20 dieseldog
destry - then why did you only suspend the eric holder question? this is second comment you've made saying none of these leaks-trial ballons count, but you suspend the holder question.
posted 6 weeks ago
  21 dieseldog
the canidate of "change" is acting like bill clinton. leak info and see how it plays in the press/polls before he acts. now if he can find a postion for bill in his cabinet he should be set to go. i guess after drawing unemployment for 8 years all them clintonians need a job. :O) sorry couldn't resist..i'm back to giving obama a fair shot at being a successful prez.
posted 6 weeks ago
  22 curios
DESRTY- has a personal contact with the new prez didn't you know. he will whisper in his ear. now these are the ones i will pick. he certainly not believe Hilary's statement. i suppose its the old adage where there is no trust there can be no mistrust
posted 6 weeks ago
  23 curios
this will have to be extend as destry has laid many thousands on the information we have provided here also he has adopted the same attitude to others on other sites with similar questions if you don't believe me look for yourselves
posted 6 weeks ago
  24 destry[Admin]
This market has asked from the very beginning will President Elect Obama announce any major cabinet appointments between Nov 17th and 21st. What has been sent in repeatedly is the same news article which is quoting NOT an official position but rumors, leaks, speculation.
If this market would have asked will NBC news announce that Hillary Clinton is the next Treasury Secretary, then we would have waited to see what NBC news said. BUT this market asked specifically in very clear language will President Elect Obama announce any major cabinet appointments. In many of the settlement links people have tried to use to settle this market, there typically is a line which states, Obama has made NOTHING OFFICIAL and will likely do so next week.
Finally for anyone shooting blanket accusations, it would be helpful to look and see that I have not made a single wager on this market. So none of my decisions are being done to try and make a few hundred hubdub dollars.
posted 6 weeks ago
  25 curios
Cant u read i said others of similarthis is what i said(this will have to be extend as destry has laid many thousands on the information we have provided here also he has adopted the same attitude to others on other sites with similar questions if you don't believe me look for yourselves ) so within 27mins you settle i asked you to extend it was obvious that the time was two short
posted 6 weeks ago
  26 randburg
Interesting...Obama cabinet decisions, leaked as a method of informing the press (that has become increasingly commonplace), was sufficient to MOVE THE DOW JONES industrial average by 494 POINTS, but failed to move hubdub or its admin. But the appointments were all reported by major press and media as coming from reliable sources...

Just as Americans are fighting skirmishes in Iraq and other third world countries (rather than fighting on established fronts), major news is now being leaked to the press from reliable sources (rather than being announced at formal press conferences). And hubdub doesn't get it...The rules of political engagement have changed with this election, but we are not following suit.

If we are going to continue this way, perhaps "yes/no" political questions now require a third option: "other".
posted 6 weeks ago
  27 randburg
To put it bluntly, ALL of the cabinet positions are going to be leaked to the press, with official announcements to follow when it is not important...This system generates more excitement, more controversy, more news...BUT WAIT A MOMENT? AREN'T WE SUPPOSED TO BE THE NEWS PREDICTOR TO THE WORLD??
posted 6 weeks ago
  28 curios
@ALL-this question answer was know before it was created last Monday it was already know then that she was to be

the chosen one look around the various similar predictions on offer. and who do you think is making money out of it no prizes for guessing it has come to one person saying (not on this one)that he would be leaving but another are we to be subservient on this site to the whims of one person any one still around look at your dashboard or go to the comment section because of this at the very least the prediction should be voided at the very least or extended as it was known by all that follow the news that OFFICAL news was not going to be announced until at least the 27Th Nov our mate? has since we put up our request for settlement he has made sure to feather his own nest.on similar sites
posted 6 weeks ago
  29 curios
opps known
posted 6 weeks ago
  30 curios
on this why has they suspended this on is there a law for one and not another
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-11-20-voa27.cfm
posted 6 weeks ago
  31 tarpash
Randburg, I understand your disappointment in the market not being settled your way. All of us hubdubbbers have disagreed with the ways admins settle market at one time or another. Just last week I disagreed with infernal about a world market that I thought he settled prematurely. It happens. But as the creator of this question, I tried very hard to make it as clear-cut as possible. Obama didn't announce any of his cabinet appointments by Friday. I'm sure if you talked to Clinton or Daschle at this very moment, they wouldn't agree with the statement "I'm the next Secretary of X" on the record. It hasn't been made official and things could still change.

Curios, I really resent your implication that I had some kind of fore-knowledge that this market would be settled as NO when I created it. If that were the case and I were a dirty player, I would have bet large amounts on NO. But I didn't. I didn't bet anything on this market. And when this question was created early Monday morning, no one knew that Obama wasn't going to announce anything this week. That's why this market was all over the place. Be careful what accusations you throw around.
posted 6 weeks ago
  32 curios
@tarpash
i am very sorry, i certainly did not say you where. but if you thought so then please accept my sincere apology . but it was announced at lease a week ago that all announcements where to be made on the 27Th of november. but in no way have doubted your integrity. incidentally this was not called for(Be careful what accusations you throw around) and what would be your intention. because it was not as you read it;
posted 6 weeks ago
  33 tarpash
Thank you for your apology curios. I appreciate it.
posted 6 weeks ago

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