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What will be First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)'s market cap by the end of 2010?

Background: The wind, solar and geothermal industries have wasted no time pressing the incoming Obama administration to implement an alternative energy agenda to spur investment and create jobs.

During a conference call Thursday, the leaders of the Solar Energy Industries Association, American Wind Energy Association and other trade groups lobbied for a plethora of legislation and policy initiatives. None of these proposals are new, but given Barack Obama’s campaign promises to promote alternative energy and the strengthened Democratic majority in Congress, the industry has the best chance in many years of seeing this wish list made real.

A focus by President Obama and Congress on restoring confidence in the financial system will most likely do the most for green investment as well as restore luster to battered renewable energy stocks like First Solar (FSLR)

http://greenwombat.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/11/13/the-renewable-energy-industrys-obama-wish-list/

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fslr

Market Cap: 9.47B (Nov 14, 2008)

Settlement details:As reported by http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fslr or finance.google.com

 
Forecast history %
below $10B
30%
between $10B and $20B
41%
between $20B and $30B
24%
above $30B
4%
other (going private, etc)
2%
Question suspends in 36 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 3rd Dec 1pm PST (36 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: below $10B: 60%, between $10B and $20B: 21%, between $20B and $30B: 13%, above $30B: 5%, other (going private, etc): 1%

Action history:

Created Mon 17th Nov 2008 4:12am PST by growthy

Suspend date: Fri 3rd Dec 1pm PST (36 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (82)

26 weeks ago
frogchop predicted between $10B and $20B (H$500 at 38%)
41 weeks ago
void predicted between $10B and $20B (H$50 at 41%)
1 year ago
opie predicted below $10B (H$50 at 38%)
1 year ago
sujal predicted between $10B and $20B (H$50 at 34%)
1 year ago
thisson predicted above $30B (H$20 at 5%)

Comments (4)

  1 pixelpaws
Hopefully this question won't get voided. It sounds like this company is pretty representative of the solar-power industry.
posted 1 year ago
  2 chatarra
Interesting question indeed.

Looking at a comparison between DJIA and FSLR, the dow seems tame and boring.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FSLR#chart2:symbol=fslr;range=1y;compare=^dji;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
posted 1 year ago
  3 chatarra
I should have known that URL was too long.

Try this one instead.
http://tiny.cc/nnkIC
posted 1 year ago
  4 pixelpaws
@chatarra - It's not that the URL was too long, but that the semicolon in the URL confused the website and it failed to parse correctly.

Also, assuming the stock doesn't split during the next two years, here's what the share prices would need to be to satisfy the about levels:

$10B = $123.32/share
$20B = $246.64
$30B = $369.96
posted 1 year ago

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