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Will President Obama make good on his promise to end the Iraq War in 16 months from inauguration?

Current forecast: 10% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 10% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Throughout the campaign, he said repeatedly, "I will end this war," and he outlined an unconditional, sixteen-month timetable to withdraw US combat forces.
The questions is will President Obama keep his promise, will all combat forces be removed from Iraq by 1159pm May 19 2010; exactly 16 months from when he takes office.
See settlement details for exact number of troop withdrawls to count as a yes.


Settlement details: In order to fulfill and be yes. The US military forces in Iraq that remain must be considered training forces not combat forces. As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
10%
No
90%
Activity: H$58,519
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Wed 19th May 2010 8:59pm PDT (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Mon 17th Nov 2008 3:44pm PST by nadine_dr_computer

Suspend date: Wed 19th May 2010 8:59pm PDT (1 year to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (75)

75 predictions

1 week ago
gabrielwest predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
3 weeks ago
desmond predicted Yes (H$60 at 9%)

Comments (10)

Quoted from http://www.barackobama.com/issues/iraq/

"Under the Obama-Biden plan, a residual force will remain in Iraq and in the region to conduct targeted counter-terrorism missions against al Qaeda in Iraq and to protect American diplomatic and civilian personnel."

According to the plan Obama has outlined, all troops will not be removed in 16 months.
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 nextpaige
Like carnacthemagnificent said, the settlement details are messed up. Obama's promise/plan was never to leave only training forces. We have troops in a ton of countries with missions going above just training. It's unrealistic to expect that a yes settlement could ever happen on the current terms; it just doesn't mesh with US policy past or present and presumably future.
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 destry[Admin]
Here is link to an article that gives more details - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akdf3aroo0JM&refer=home
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 dieseldog
if you read the link destry has obama gave himself plenty of wiggle room. bush warned both canidates not to make promises they couldn't keep. obama has to or should i say is pose to honor the agreement just signed. if he decides heck with that agreement he breaks a contract signed by the USA. who wants to deal with a country that don't keep their word-breaks contracts.
posted 7 weeks ago
  5 curios
TELL me what poly does not by circumstance, not have to BEND a few rules on the way ?
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
curios - i agree all "polys" bend the rules. obama's problem is the leftwing-anti war folks. if he don't have a MAJOR withdraw of troops in 16 months they will go ballistic.
posted 7 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
curios - did you run dragonfang off tonight? i miss him :O(
posted 7 weeks ago
  8 curios
NO chuckles is still around lets be honest we love him really!!!!?
posted 7 weeks ago
the left wing anti war folks can go ballistic if they want, they are completely powerless and will vote for obama anyway in 2012. That's if they even exist.
posted 7 weeks ago
  10 dieseldog
i'd say the exsist. cindy sheehan ran aginest pelosi. their not powerful enough to beat obama in a campain, but they can cause him a headache. Buchanan ran againest bush sr with little chance of winning. it still caused bush sr to spend money..and to defend his right. the left could do the same to obama.
posted 7 weeks ago

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