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Who will rank higher for searches on Google trends at end of 2008 - Facebook or OpenSocial?

Settled as Facebook actively leads

Facebook won hands down. http://www.google.com/trends?q=facebook%2C+opensocial

Background:

Facebook is a social network site. Google lost the bid to Microsoft to own part, and afterwards developed Opensocial. It's a common API for use across multiple websites - effectively spreading the network across the web - as a layer of its own, rather than a specific site.


Settlement details: As reported by http://www.google.com/trends?q=facebook%2C+opensocial

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Facebook actively leads
92%
Opensocial actively leads
3%
Facebook wins as Opensocial closes down
5%
Opensocial wins as Facebook closes down
0%
Activity: H$12,357
Settled as Facebook actively leads on Tue 30th Dec 2008 9:30am PST

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 3:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 30th Dec 2008 9:30am PST

Initial likelihoods: Facebook actively leads: 80%, Opensocial actively leads: 15%, Facebook wins as Opensocial closes down: 4%, Opensocial wins as Facebook closes down: 1%

Action history:

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 3:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 30th Dec 2008 9:30am PST
more info...

 

Predictions (34)

34 predictions

1 week ago
pascal_charest predicted Facebook actively leads (H$544 at 92%)
1 week ago
capecodviking predicted Facebook actively leads (H$50 at 91%)
1 week ago
bency predicted Facebook actively leads (H$50 at 87%)
2 weeks ago
adil87 predicted Facebook actively leads (H$10 at 86%)
3 weeks ago
drzinternet predicted Facebook actively leads (H$100 at 86%)
more

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