Created Tue 18th Nov 2008 4:04am PST by 
faisal
All questions » Politics » US Politics » faisal 
Will the US government give the auto industry a >$20B bailout by the end of November?
Settled as No
There's talk of a bailout package for the auto industry, either as something from the bailout package meant for the financial industry, or as something else. Either way, everyone seems to hate what's on the table:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLlW6YMbUNcI&refer=home
So, will the Congress pass, and President Bush sign a bailout bill with over $20,000,000,000 in cash or capital. Loans count (they get cash, just have to pay it back), tax breaks don't (no cash. also not particularly useful since these companies are losing money left and right).
Initial odds are sort of a guess -- I'd say 50/50 for as a starting point, based on prior bailouts (bank bailouts, insurance bailouts, etc.), but then reduced because no one seems to be happy with the bill on offer, Thanksgiving is coming up, so there aren't many working days left, etc.
See also, Bruine de Bruin et al.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLlW6YMbUNcI&refer=home
So, will the Congress pass, and President Bush sign a bailout bill with over $20,000,000,000 in cash or capital. Loans count (they get cash, just have to pay it back), tax breaks don't (no cash. also not particularly useful since these companies are losing money left and right).
Initial odds are sort of a guess -- I'd say 50/50 for as a starting point, based on prior bailouts (bank bailouts, insurance bailouts, etc.), but then reduced because no one seems to be happy with the bill on offer, Thanksgiving is coming up, so there aren't many working days left, etc.
See also, Bruine de Bruin et al.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Activity: H$103,328
Settled as No on Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:16am PST
Suspend date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 1:59am PST Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:16am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Dec 2008 1:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%
Action history:
Created Tue 18th Nov 2008 4:04am PST by faisal
faisal
Settlement requested Fri 21st Nov 2008 6:33am PST by 
coolkraft
: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15830.html
no bailout until after December
coolkraft: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15830.html
no bailout until after December
Settlement requested Mon 1st Dec 2008 1:03am PST by 
keyeshoveden![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user")
: The auto industry appeared not to have got the money they wanted.
keyeshoveden: The auto industry appeared not to have got the money they wanted.
Suspended Mon 1st Dec 2008 1:59am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 1st Dec 2008 6:32am PST by 
crowe: Today is Dec.1st and Congress has not approved an auto industry bailout of >$20B. Please settle market as no.
crowe: Today is Dec.1st and Congress has not approved an auto industry bailout of >$20B. Please settle market as no. 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
Suspend date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 1:59am PST Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 10:16am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Dec 2008 1:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (98)
98 predictions
predicted No (H$939 at 97%)
notablenotices
predicted No (H$5 at 97%)
manoogs
predicted No (H$100 at 97%)
jsevigny
predicted No (H$50 at 97%)
mrcorkles
predicted No (H$100 at 97%)
thepeoplegeekllc
predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
rbrog77
predicted No (H$178 at 95%)
tulyehualco
balcacer
predicted No (H$20 at 96%)
veaneyComments (10)
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score: 10
ABC Online 6 weeks ago
come up with a plan and come back before you're getting any taxpayer money'.' Top executives from Chrysler, Ford and General Motors warned Congress last week that the domestic auto industry faces a 'catastrophic collapse' which would lead to the loss of
score: 10
CBS News 6 weeks ago
used. Stocks rose briefly after a bipartisan group of senators reached a compromise to funnel emergency loans to General Motors, Ford and Chrysler. Investors seemed unmoved by remarks from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson who said in a speech Thursday
score: 10
Economictimes 6 weeks ago
Stocks rose briefly Thursday after a bipartisan group of senators reached a compromise to funnel emergency loans to General Motors, Ford and Chrysler. Investors seemed unmoved by remarks from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson who said in a speech Thursday
score: 10
Los Angeles Times 6 weeks ago
Stocks rose briefly today after a bipartisan group of senators reached a compromise to funnel emergency loans to General Motors, Ford and Chrysler. Investors seemed unmoved by remarks from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson who said in a speech today that
score: 10
Washington Post 6 weeks ago
genuine concern here of getting something done during this period of time so that we don't lose General Motors,' said Sen. George V. Voinovich (R-Ohio) yesterday. 'I think most people realize that this country's in a deep recession. If we lose GM . . .
Related tags
New in Politics » US Politics
After reading that link - I hardly know what to say.
Getting paid to do nothing, is beyond my sense of workplace ethics. One guy said he was probably paid $400,000 over the last 6 years to sit in a room with 400 other employees and do nothing but read, talk or learn to deal blackjack.
Outrageous and disappointingly incredible.
seems like they will not get a bailout..how did you like the private planes they fly in?
Ford seems to be in the best shape
more info
no bailout until december....maybe
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