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Will Microsoft formally announce an offer for Yahoo?

Current forecast: 51% chance 3%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 51% likely to happen (down 3% in last 1 day)

Now that Jerry Yang has relinquished his role as Chief Executive - returning to the role of Chief Yahoo - might once-jilted suitor Microsoft make another play for the Internet giant? The company's share price is less than half what it was at the time of the original bid.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Given the dearth of high-profile M&A, we're giving this contract a 3-month life span.

 
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Yes
51%
No
49%
Activity: H$29,234
Question suspends in 6 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 18th Feb 11:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Tue 18th Nov 2008 5:27am PST by reuters

Suspend date: Wed 18th Feb 11:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (71)

71 predictions

18 hours ago
aland predicted No (H$50 at 49%)
21 hours ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted No (H$1,000 at 48%)
5 days ago
sadam predicted No (H$20 at 47%)
6 days ago
fellcolor predicted No (H$1,400 at 45%)
6 days ago
pascal_charest predicted No (H$200 at 43%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 lola
Yahoo Rises as Yang Exit Sparks Microsoft Speculation

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Yahoo! Inc., owner of the second- largest U.S. Internet-search engine, rose as much as 13 percent in Nasdaq trading after Chief Executive Officer Jerry Yang agreed to step down, opening the door for a fresh Microsoft Corp. bid.

Yahoo, based in Sunnyvale, California, climbed $1.38 to $12.01 at 9:30 a.m. New York time in trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The gain was the largest in a month.

Before today, the company’s market value had fallen by more than $20 billion since Yang took over last year as discussions with Microsoft failed, an ad partnership with Google Inc. collapsed and talks with Time Warner Inc.’s AOL stalled. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the resignation may fuel speculation of renewed talks with Microsoft or another suitor.

“The strategic necessity here is for this company to merge with Microsoft,” Larry Haverty, a fund manager at Gamco Investors Inc. in Rye, New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Gamco manages about $24 billion, including Yahoo shares. “This is just unmitigated good news for the Yahoo shareholders.”

Microsoft and Yahoo trail Google, which controls more than 60 percent of the Internet-search market in the U.S. Microsoft has said that while it’s open to a search-ad deal with Yahoo, it isn’t interested in buying the company outright. Microsoft bid as much as $33 a share for Yahoo this year, and Yahoo now trades at less than a third of that value. Microsoft may end up paying between $15 and $18 for Yahoo, Haverty said.

CEO Candidates

Yahoo President Susan Decker is a candidate for Yang’s job, said Brad Williams, a spokesman for Yahoo. Yang, 40, will stay on the board and remain CEO until Yahoo finds a replacement, Yahoo said yesterday. He took the top job at the 13-year-old Internet company in June 2007.

“He played one too many poker hands up there and got caught,” said Pat Becker of Becker Capital Management in Portland, Oregon. His firm owns Microsoft shares but not Yahoo. “Microsoft still believes that it needs scale” in the online advertising business.

Microsoft spokesman Bill Cox declined to comment. The Redmond, Washington-based company will hold its annual meeting for shareholders tomorrow.

There isn’t a timeframe on finding a replacement for Yang, Yahoo’s Williams said. Yang had been in discussions with the board about seeking a replacement for “some time.” He will return to his position of Chief Yahoo when a successor is found.

Other potential candidates include Jonathan Miller, the former chairman of AOL; Dan Rosensweig, once Yahoo’s operations chief; and Meg Whitman the former chief of Internet auctioneer EBay Inc., UBS analyst Ben Schachter said in a report today.

Full Story @: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awf7j64Zcw4s&refer=home
posted 7 weeks ago

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