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Will the Chinese government force Arzigul Tursun to have an abortion?

Current forecast: 41% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 41% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2008/nov/08111709.html

Stark Choice: Chinese Woman Must Abort Her Child or Lose Her Home

By Thaddeus M. Baklinski

BEIJING, November 17, 2008 (LifeSiteNews.com) - A Muslim Uyghur woman who is more than six months pregnant remains under guard in a hospital in China's northwestern Xinjiang region awaiting a forced abortion by population control authorities who don't want her to have a third child.

Arzigul Tursun fled from her village and went into hiding to avoid the abortion but was subsequently found and taken to the Municipal Watergate Hospital in Yining.

Radio Free Asia reports that Tursun's husband, Nurmemet Tohtasin, said that "police, Party officials and the family planning committee officials, all came and interrogated us, and threatened that if we didn’t find Arzigul and bring her to the village, they would confiscate our house, farmland and all our property.”

Arzigul and Nurmemet already have two daughters at their home in the village of Bulaq. According to the Washington-based Uyghur Human Rights Project, Arzigul fled Bulaq when officials first urged her to have an abortion, but she returned after her family received threats of asset seizure.

"We considered our two girls," Nurmemet said in a telephone interview with the Uyghur American Association. "If the house and properties were taken away, how would they live? So my wife came back home and went to the hospital."

An AP report said that physicians have delayed performing the forced abortion because of rapidly developing international interest in the case due to pressure from pro-life and human-rights groups who have expressed concern that Tursun's health could be threatened by the abortion.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
41%
No
59%
Activity: H$3,018
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 1st Feb 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 45%

Action history:

Created Tue 18th Nov 2008 5:54am PST by notablenotices[Power User]

Suspend date: Sun 1st Feb 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
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Predictions (15)

15 predictions

1 day ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted No (H$750 at 59%)
3 days ago
bernardo predicted Yes (H$100 at 42%)
5 weeks ago
hect0r predicted No (H$100 at 58%)
7 weeks ago
blacksoapman predicted No (H$20 at 58%)
7 weeks ago
aland predicted No (H$20 at 56%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 nextpaige
Uh, what if she ran away (as they're now reporting) and manages to stay in hiding until she delivers? Will this settle as no?
posted 7 weeks ago
@nextpaige: That is correct. It would settle as "no" in that case.
posted 7 weeks ago
Here is an update:

http://www.lifenews.com/int993.html

Beijing, China (LifeNews.com) -- A Chinese woman who was six months pregnant and potentially faced a forced abortion under the Asian nation's coercive one-child family planning policy has been released. Arzigul Tursun has been released from a hospital where she had been held against her will for an abortion.

The news comes after reports that Tursun fled from the Municipal Watergate Hospital and was later apprehended by family planning officials who insisted she could have been forcibly aborted as early as today.

The case is drawing international attention to how China strictly enforces its one-child family planning policy and uses forced abortions and sterilizations to do so.

It also highlights how incoming president Barack Obama is considering funding a United Nations agency that has been involved in promoting the coercive program.

“I am all right and I am at home now,” Tursun told Radio free Asia on Tuesday shortly after she was released from the Women and Children’s Welfare Hospital in Ili prefecture in China’s northwestern Xinjiang region.


This looks like "good" news so far...
posted 7 weeks ago

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