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How much will Sarah Palin command for her life story?

Current forecast: 5 to less than 7 million (26% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 5 to less than 7 million with a probability of 26% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Love her or hate her, Sarah Palin was a commanding presence this fall. Appearances by her on SNL and evening news shows doubled their ratings and interest in her fueled the decisive ratings win of the VP debate over all three presidential debates. Her short biography written by a little known author became an instant best seller upon McCain naming her his Vice Presidential nominee.

Now its time to hear her side of the story, and she's likely to command an impressive sum for it. Here are some other book deal numbers for comparison:
John McCain's Faith of My Fathers: 500,000
Barack Obama's Audicity of Hope: 1.9 million
Hillary Clinton's Living History: 8 million
Bill Clinton's My Life: 10 million

Read more


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Less than 3 million
4%
3 to less than 5 million
20%
5 to less than 7 million
26%
7 to less than 9 million
19%
9 million or more
17%
Not reported/Other by Jan 1, 2010
13%
Activity: H$23,503
Question suspends in 49 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 18th Dec 11:59pm PST (49 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Less than 3 million: 5%, 3 to less than 5 million: 15%, 5 to less than 7 million: 35%, 7 to less than 9 million: 20%, 9 million or more: 10%, Not reported/Other by Jan 1, 2010: 15%

Action history:

Suspend date: Fri 18th Dec 11:59pm PST (49 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (97)

97 predictions

5 days ago
johnforegate predicted 3 to less than 5 million (H$50 at 16%)
2 weeks ago
deelilley predicted 3 to less than 5 million (H$50 at 12%)
4 weeks ago
richporter predicted Less than 3 million (H$100 at 8%)
5 weeks ago
goldnchyl predicted 5 to less than 7 million (H$50 at 37%)
6 weeks ago
kevinvuichard predicted 3 to less than 5 million (H$20 at 8%)
more

Comments (25)

I personally think what she commands and what she will actually be paid will be substantially different...she wants millions she deserves 2 cents; well make that one cent the price of copper has risen!
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 randburg
She'll get "back to 'ya" on that...
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 chatarra
I don't understand the angst against Sarah Palin. Especially since it usually comes from the so called "party of tolerance".
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 dieseldog
they fear her...
posted 7 weeks ago
command should be demand?
posted 7 weeks ago
This is actually kind of easy to explain. This is coming from the same people who didn't know why they were voting for Barack - just pulling the lever.

Zogby Poll: Almost No Obama Voters Ace Election Test
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1642

When these people wake up with a case of buyer's remorse on Jan 20th, they will wish they took a few minutes to research their choices before heading for the voting booth!
posted 7 weeks ago
Ok, its early, I haven't had breakfast and I'm a little irritated, so sorry if this comes off crabby (but I guess it is).

1. The "angst" against Sarah Palin had nothing to do with her gender, and much more to do with her presentation. Its not that democrats hate female candidates or disrespected her accent. Its that we felt she was unqualified to be Vice President of the US and that the Republican party was misrepresenting her credentials. The fact that she was kept away from the media to a large extent just solidified that thought. If you look at the polling the majority of independents felt the same way. I'm more than willing to acknowledge her strengths: affable/friendly, stands strong on issues she believes in (even when they're unpopular), walks the talk (at least with ProLife/Trig) -- but then you need to acknowledge that she does have definite weaknesses. If your most important issue is abortion rights, then maybe that's all you need to know, but hopefully you can see that other people may have other issues they deem more/equally important.
2. Its inane to say that everyone who voted for Obama is stupid. There are a lot of both McCain supporters and Obama supporters on this site, and I think we're a pretty educated, reasonable bunch (maybe with the exception of dragon :) j/k!). More people were engaged in this campaign than in any other in recent history. As an electorate we were more educated than ever before -- that's something to celebrate. There are many different reasons to support a candidate: character, abortion rights, economy outlook, education, etc. Just accept that some people weighted those issues differently that you.
3. The Zogby poll. Erg. Try reading this interview with Ziegler and see if you really think this is an unbiased poll. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/interview-with-john-ziegler-on-zogby.html
4. This is not meant to be a Sarah bashing market -- I think we already have several markets which have been taken over by pro/anti Sarah rants..there's even a forum for the topi! But even the people who didn't like her have been fascinated by her, and I think there's a good chance that she could really get a huge amount for her book. I think it would be pretty interesting for someone with so little national experience to get paid as much/more than a former President/First Lady. She's certainly certain to get more than Obama's book which ended up launching his presidential campaign.

I'm going to get more coffee and some sugar.
posted 7 weeks ago
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1641
Zogby Statement on Ziegler poll

"We stand by the results our survey work on behalf of John Ziegler, as we stand by all of our work. We reject the notion that this was a push poll because it very simply wasn't. It was a legitimate effort to test the knowledge of voters who cast ballots for Barack Obama in the Nov. 4 election.
posted 7 weeks ago
  9 randburg
I agree with jenni. This question isn't about Palin bashing at all.

While I believe McCain made a serious mistake in his choice of a running mate, this is NOT Sarah Palin's fault. In fact, I admire how very much she accomplished in a very short period of time. The Republican Party took a big fish from a tiny pond, and literally POURED vice-presidentiality (sic) into her. Everybody knew that she was stuffed into a cram course on Washington and "the world out there", and she both grasped the material and performed amazingly well. Lipstick and Neimans couldn't hide the charming redneck aspect, but she carried off the "near impossible" in getting away with this amazing charade. And I rate the ability to do that as "smarter than we think".

To this end, Sarah, I hope you get everything you can soak the American people for. You jumped through all the hoops that were required, got a bit more time in the sun than Joe the Plumber, entertained the American public while they cheered, sniggered, laughed at you, and abused you...You go for it girl and get every cent you can get...! You earned it in my book.
posted 7 weeks ago
  10 dieseldog
jenni - not crabby at all. your view well presented. now go make me some lunch. :O) palin's problem imho is the MSM decided to hammer her. if anybody does a non-biased search you will see palin got way more negative press than any of the 4 canidates. i'll admitt she proablly wasn't ready for "prime time" media coverage. i think she'll learn from that and will be better prepared if she decides to run for higher office in the future.
posted 7 weeks ago
  11 bigken1
The problem I had with her was one simple thing. It was that used her position to do an end run around the judicial process to serve her own self-interest. I call this out and out corruption of the highest order.

What kind of VP or P would such a person make? Who is she working for? Not us, i think ,but herself.
I don't mind that she is egocentric. I do not think anyone who gets as high as she would not be. I don't mind that she probably has 1% as much knowledge as me; she can probably run circles around me in false accusations and innuendos, etc.. but I do not want to vote for anyone who is so totally, and obviously corrupt.

Simple..
posted 7 weeks ago
  12 chatarra
@Randburg - I should have directed my original comment towards the first poster in this thread. I actually like most of what Nadine usually says / posts, but she is too controversial for me to agree with everything she says / posts.
I agree that this question is not about bashing Sarah, but simply questioning how much she will earn off total book sales.

@Jenni
I hope you earn money from your prose as you seem to always present a valid argument for your side. However, after giving it some thought - it hit me like a ton of bricks.
I must dispute your notion that democrats in general felt she was unqualified for the office. Perhaps she was not worthy of the position because of a lack of experience.

If anything it was just the opposite. Sarah was too electable. After 8 years of Bush, it seemed like a cakewalk to elect Barack Obama, until Sarah accepted the VP slot at the republican convention.

The fact that she was kept away from the media was the fault of her handlers. They were probably concerned about how the media would present any mistakes she might make.

Nobody seemed to question that somebody was “hidin Biden” towards the end of the campaign. He talked about FDR coming onto television to speak to the American people about the stock market crash of 1929 and that J-O-B-S was a three letter word, but it didn’t stay press worthy. If Palin had said anything like that, the main stream media would have hammered her relentlessly.

It must have been like going into a fist fight with her hands tied.
posted 7 weeks ago
All polls point to the fact that Palin did NOT hurt McCain. She improved his stance by minor points usually 1 percent or less. This just proves that people do NOT vote for the VP. They vote for the VP. Anybody that has a big enough problem Palin to not vote for McCain was almost definitely not going to vote for him in the first place.

Palin was not kept out of the media at all..... Her brief 5 week stay was multiple times worse than either Obama, Biden, or McCain's. Biden was almost never in the media and Obama was barely touched given his background.
posted 7 weeks ago
  14 chatarra
@ BigKen1,
Can you point me towards an honest politician?
posted 7 weeks ago
Wow, sure looks like a hornets nest to me...Golly gee robamichael say it aint so,*wink wink* ya wanna go moose huntin
posted 7 weeks ago
  16 deelilley
"What will ambitious politicos learn from this? That frayed syntax, bungled grammar and run-on sentences that ramble on long after thought has given out completely are a candidate’s valuable traits?"

"At the risk of offending, well, you, for example, I worry about just what it is her hollering fans see in her that makes her the ideal choice to deal with the world’s problems: collapsed economies, global warming, hostile enemies and our current and far-flung twin battlefronts, either of which may prove to be the world’s second “30 Years’ War.”

Has there been a poll to see if the Sarah-ites are numbered among that baffling 26 percent of our population who, despite everything, still maintain that President George has done a heckuva job?"

"A woman in one of Palin’s crowds praised her for being “a mom like me … who thinks the way I do” and added, for ill measure, “That’s what I want in the White House.” Fine, but in what capacity?

Do this lady’s like-minded folk wonder how, say, Jefferson, Lincoln, the Roosevelts, et al (add your own favorites) managed so well without being soccer moms? Without being whizzes in the kitchen, whipping up moose soufflés? Without executing and wounding wolves from the air and without promoting that sad, threadbare hoax — sexual abstinence — as the answer to the sizzling loins of the young?

(In passing, has anyone observed that hunting animals with high-powered guns could only be defined as sport if both sides were equally armed?)"

http://cavett.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/14/the-wild-wordsmith-of-wasilla/?em

Bush made it tough for incoherent to be electable...
posted 6 weeks ago
Spoken like a true Barack supporter:

They could answer questions about McCain and Palin, even erroneous ones asking which candidate considered it a foreign policy credential to be able to see Russia from his or her house?

Answer: Sara Palin, but not really. Actually, Tina Fey said it, but in the Messiah-induced press frenzy, little facts like that don’t matter:
Ninety-four percent of Obama voters correctly identified Palin as the candidate with a pregnant teenage daughter, 86% correctly identified Palin as the candidate associated with a $150,000 wardrobe purchased by her political party, and 81% chose McCain as the candidate who was unable to identify the number of houses he owned. When asked which candidate said they could “see Russia from their house,” 87% chose Palin, although the quote actually is attributed to Saturday Night Live’s Tina Fey during her portrayal of Palin during the campaign.

Obama Voters didn’t do so well answering questions about their messiah and his sidekick, Palooka Joe:
3% failed to correctly answer that Obama had won his first election by getting all of his opponents removed from the ballot, and 88% did not correctly associate Obama with his statement that his energy policies would likely bankrupt the coal industry. Most (56%) were also not able to correctly answer that Obama started his political career at the home of two former members of the Weather Underground.

Nearly three quarters (72%) of Obama voters did not correctly identify Biden as the candidate who had to quit a previous campaign for President because he was found to have plagiarized a speech, and nearly half (47%) did not know that Biden was the one who predicted Obama would be tested by a generated international crisis during his first six months as President.
posted 6 weeks ago
  18 dieseldog
DISCLAIMER: i'm not bashing obama supporters. i'm sure howard could do this with mccain supporters also.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyvqhdllXgU
posted 6 weeks ago
  19 chatarra
@DDog
Startling - but you are probably right about being able to find similar McCain supporters too.
posted 6 weeks ago
notablenotices....

That is fantastic information and in my view can be directly attributed to the fact that the greatest portion of the media is focused on one party. This isn't to mention the fact that Obama outspent the McCain campaign many times over.

"Thirty-four percent of the stories about Obama's reaction to the crisis were positive, while 18 percent were negative. McCain's coverage, though, went into a free fall after he initially declared that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong." By the following week, more than half the stories about McCain were negative and only 11 percent positive, just as Obama's coverage was turning positive by a margin of more than 5 to 1."


you don't say?
and oh whats this?


"But McCain's running mate remains a media magnet, drawing three times as much coverage as the Democrats' VP nominee, Joe Biden. He was "nearly the invisible man," the group says, and his coverage was far more negative than Palin's. That may be because Biden tends to make news primarily when he commits gaffes."


http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/22/study_coverage_of_mccain_much.html

Don't ever forget you're missing four fifths the picture if you don't check out ALL the information thats actually out there. It can be tempting to take the easily packaged deal when it comes to news, but that's just because of who controls it.
posted 6 weeks ago
  21 chatarra
@DeeLilley
I am really trying hard to not be critical of Obama at this point. After all, we do not know if the man taking office will be the far left candidate that George Soros and Moveon.org thought they were getting, or the candidate with the more centrist position that defeated Hillary Clinton. What we do know is that he is a very skilled speaker who can (and did) deliver rousing campaign speeches. Being a smooth talker is a valuable asset, but I am not sure I want a salesman running the country.

Trying to discover what he stood for exactly continues to be a difficult exercise. What exactly does "Hope and Change" stand for? Peggy Joseph went on record saying that Obama was going to pay for her mortgage and gas in her car. Those are the reasons that she wanted Obama to win.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI

Style over substance - the Obama presidency will be interesting to watch. . . .
posted 6 weeks ago
  22 bjo48
Who cares what Sara Palin does? She should go back to Alaska and take care of her children and stop thinking she's qualified for anything - including being a mother. Let her go back to winning beauty contests if she can still play the flute. Doggone it!! UBetcha!!! And, she should learn how topronounce the "G" at the end of words that end in "ing" - otherwise known as a "suffix."
posted 6 weeks ago
@bjo48

accents don't measure intelligence. The only thing accents do is remind us that the country is much more diverse than it must seem in your own community. Obama has a chicago accent and no one minds it....(as they shouldn't)
posted 6 weeks ago
It is not the accent..gracious golly gee wilickers, our current soon to be past president of this here united sates has a Texas Drawl when he wants one. Everyone has some sort of an accent no matter where you are from. There is a difference between speaking with an accent and acting as ditzy and stupid and folksie as possible to cause us old people to think we just time warped back into the Beverly hillbillies tv show! though i do question if the act is an act on Sarah's part.
posted 6 weeks ago
  25 thetexas
Why would she sell her life's story when her carrer is still in the early phases? She will have a very long/successful political career. Although Obama has no experience and he already has two books, but I think she is a little more credible then our America hating president.
posted 5 weeks ago

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