Who will Mexico's next president be in 2012?

Voided

Hubdub rules require that all questions be in English. See "2.2.5 Types of question" at http://www.hubdub.com/public/rules . Also, this question background is phrased as if it is an opinion poll about who people think would be best. But questions at Hubdub must focus on facts, not opinions. Finally, the question really requires a web link to an article that shows why these particular people are favored, and why the initial probabilities are reasonable.

Background:

Las elecciones presidenciales en México tienen gran importancia para la vida política, social y económica del país, sin embargo, desde la salida de Salinas de Gortari la figura presidencial ha ido perdiendo poder con pasos agigantados. Ahora serán las elecciones del 2012, ¿quién crees que podría devolverle al poder ejecutivo el valor que merece y debe de tener?

Settlement details: Only valid if valid democratic presidential elections take place in Mexico during 2012.

Forecast history, %

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Voided

Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI)

40%

Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN)

Georgina Kessel Martínez (PAN)

Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon (PRD)

30%

Lázaro Cárdenas Batel (PRD)

Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD)

Dr. Simi (Independiente)

Ninguno de los anteriores

13%

Voided Wed 26th Nov 2008 5:34pm PST

Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 11:59pm PST (3 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI): 40%, Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN): 5%, Georgina Kessel Martínez (PAN): 5%, Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon (PRD): 30%, Lázaro Cárdenas Batel (PRD): 5%, Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD): 1%, Dr. Simi (Independiente): 1%, Ninguno de los anteriores: 13%

Action history:

Created Tue 18th Nov 2008 4:50pm PST by

walkingtrends Level 5, Predictor (H$1,787)

Voided Wed 26th Nov 2008 5:34pm PST by

infernalmachine [Admin]

: Hubdub rules require that all questions be in English. See "2.2.5 Types of question" at http://www.hubdub.com/public/rules . Also, this question background is phrased as if it is an opinion poll about who people think would be best. But questions at Hubdub must focus on facts, not opinions. Finally, the question really requires a web link to an article that shows why these particular people are favored, and why the initial probabilities are reasonable.

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Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 11:59pm PST (3 years to go)
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