Created Tue 18th Nov 2008 6:42pm PST by

When will the Large Hadron Collider be switched on again?

Settled as Not by 1 October 2009

Background: Fixing the world's largest atom smasher will cost at least Â£14 million and may take until early in the Northern Hemisphere summer, its operator CERN said. An electrical failure shut down the Large Hadron Collider on September 19, nine days after the Ã‚Â£3.6 billion machine started up with great fanfare.

The European Organisation for Nuclear Research recently said that the repairs would be completed by May or early June. Spokesman James Gillies said the organisation know as CERN is now estimating the restart will be at the end of June or later. "If we can do it sooner, all well and good. But I think we can do it realistically (in) early summer," he said.

The organisation has blamed the shutdown on the failure of a single, badly soldered electrical connection.

Read the full The Independent article here.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Due to the unreliability of announcements about when it will be fixed, the question will settle when the LHC is actually turned on again. No need for high energy collisions, just being switched on.

Forecast history %

Before May 2009

May 2009

June 2009

July 2009

August 2009

September 2009

Not by 1 October 2009

100%

Settled as Not by 1 October 2009 on Mon 5th Oct 12:43pm PST

Activity: H$102,447
Predictions: 212
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Thu 1st Oct 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 5th Oct 12:43pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 1st Oct 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Before May 2009: 5%, May 2009: 10%, June 2009: 25%, July 2009: 25%, August 2009: 20%, September 2009: 10%, Not by 1 October 2009: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 18th Nov 2008 6:42pm PST by

tisha

Changed Description Tue 18th Nov 2008 6:47pm PST by

tisha

: show details

... smasher will cost at least £Â£14 million and may take ... summer, its operator CERN said~~. ~~ . An electrical failure shut down ... 19, nine days after the £Â£3.6 billion machine started ... end of June or later~~. "~~. "If we can do it ... the full The Independent article <aA href='="http://www.independent.co.uk/ ... -hadron-collider-fix-1023764.html'>">here</aA>.

Changed Description Tue 18th Nov 2008 6:48pm PST by

tisha

: show details

... started up with great fanfare. <~~br/> <~~br/> The European Organisation ... in) early summer," he said. <~~br/> <~~br/> The organisation has

Changed Description Tue 18th Nov 2008 6:49pm PST by

tisha

: show details

... 19, nine days after the Â£Ã‚Â£3.6 billion machine started

Suspended Thu 1st Oct 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as 'Not by 1 October 2009' Mon 5th Oct 12:43pm PST by

tisha

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Predictions (212)

12 weeks ago

mungo10 Level 14, Prophet (H$227,675)

predicted Not by 1 October 2009 (H$100 at 98%)

13 weeks ago

aussieguy Level 6, Player (H$2,372)

predicted Not by 1 October 2009 (H$100 at 98%)

13 weeks ago

tagger Level 10, Genius (H$10,161)

predicted September 2009 (H$100 at 1%)

15 weeks ago

bobdevine Level 16, Oracle (H$500,533)

predicted Not by 1 October 2009 (H$9,999 at 99%)

17 weeks ago

bobdevine Level 16, Oracle (H$500,533)

predicted Not by 1 October 2009 (H$9,999 at 95%)

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