Which African country will the Obama administration attack first?
Current forecast: None (50% chance
)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is None with a probability of 50% (unchanged in last 1 day)
Last month, the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) became operational, meaning there are now 1300 people whose responsibility is for planning and executing military operations in the African theater.
It is estimated by some in the US intelligence community that the US will import 25% of its oil from Africa by 2015 (that number is currently 15%). Along with other rare natural resources present in Africa, this means the continent will likely become increasingly important to the growth and survival of the American empire in coming years.
A place like Sudan, for example, offers an opportunity for the incoming administration , as it has billions of barrels of oil reserves, a significant Muslim population, and also harbors a well-known humanitarian crisis that would put a human face on any intervention, silencing much of what opposition may exist. This may not be the best example as intervening in Sudan would raise major issues with China, but it goes to show that the many conflicts and problems in Africa would likely provide sufficient cover if an imperial intervention is considered expedient.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. An incident involving Somali pirates will not count. Any attack under the flags of the UN or NATO involving the U.S. military will count.
Which African country will the Obama administration attack first?
Nigeria
Sudan
Somalia
Kenya
Angola
Zimbabwe
Guinea
Libya
Other
None
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Forecast history, %
Make your prediction!
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| Nigeria | | |
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| Sudan | | |
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| Somalia | | |
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| Kenya | | |
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| Angola | | |
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| Zimbabwe | | |
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| Guinea | | |
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| Libya | | |
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| Other | | |
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| None | | |
Activity: H$21,624
Question suspends in 8 years
Suspend date: Fri 20th Jan 2017 11:59pm PST (8 years to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Nigeria: 20%, Sudan: 15%, Somalia: 15%, Kenya: 8%, Angola: 8%, Zimbabwe: 5%, Guinea: 3%, Libya: 5%, Other: 5%, None: 16%
Action history:
Suspend date: Fri 20th Jan 2017 11:59pm PST (8 years to go)
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Predictions (27)
27 predictions
3 days ago
ryanb37
predicted
None (H$5,000 at 58%)
1 week ago
xavvrty
predicted
None (H$50 at 37%)
3 weeks ago
youbet
predicted
None (H$100 at 37%)
more3 days ago
ryanb37
predicted
None (H$5,000 at 58%)
1 week ago
xavvrty
predicted
None (H$50 at 37%)
3 weeks ago
youbet
predicted
None (H$100 at 37%)
4 weeks ago
soldier_w
predicted
None (H$100 at 36%)
7 weeks ago
alexrettie
predicted
Sudan (H$50 at 11%)
7 weeks ago
mork![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)

predicted
Sudan (H$100 at 9%)
7 weeks ago
ryanb37
predicted
None (H$3,000 at 50%)
7 weeks ago
pembeci
predicted
None (H$400 at 33%)
Showing recent public predictions only
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Comments (4)
or do we have to have the cash tied up for 8 years.
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