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Which African country will the Obama administration attack first?

Current forecast: None (50% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is None with a probability of 50% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Last month, the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) became operational, meaning there are now 1300 people whose responsibility is for planning and executing military operations in the African theater.

It is estimated by some in the US intelligence community that the US will import 25% of its oil from Africa by 2015 (that number is currently 15%). Along with other rare natural resources present in Africa, this means the continent will likely become increasingly important to the growth and survival of the American empire in coming years.

A place like Sudan, for example, offers an opportunity for the incoming administration , as it has billions of barrels of oil reserves, a significant Muslim population, and also harbors a well-known humanitarian crisis that would put a human face on any intervention, silencing much of what opposition may exist. This may not be the best example as intervening in Sudan would raise major issues with China, but it goes to show that the many conflicts and problems in Africa would likely provide sufficient cover if an imperial intervention is considered expedient.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. An incident involving Somali pirates will not count. Any attack under the flags of the UN or NATO involving the U.S. military will count.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Nigeria
8%
Sudan
20%
Somalia
6%
Kenya
3%
Angola
3%
Zimbabwe
4%
Guinea
1%
Libya
2%
Other
3%
None
50%
Activity: H$21,624
Question suspends in 8 years

Suspend date: Fri 20th Jan 2017 11:59pm PST (8 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Nigeria: 20%, Sudan: 15%, Somalia: 15%, Kenya: 8%, Angola: 8%, Zimbabwe: 5%, Guinea: 3%, Libya: 5%, Other: 5%, None: 16%

Action history:

Created Tue 18th Nov 2008 9:35pm PST by reverend_right

Suspend date: Fri 20th Jan 2017 11:59pm PST (8 years to go)
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Predictions (27)

27 predictions

3 days ago
ryanb37 predicted None (H$5,000 at 58%)
1 week ago
xavvrty predicted None (H$50 at 37%)
2 weeks ago
reverend_right predicted Other (H$80 at 5%)
3 weeks ago
youbet predicted None (H$100 at 37%)
3 weeks ago
davidmorris452 predicted Zimbabwe (H$50 at 5%)
more

Comments (4)

CORRECTION from Reuters: " Last year, Africa accounted for more of America's petroleum imports (19.8 percent) than Persian Gulf states (16.1 percent). "
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 faceman
MS. CLINTON IS A GOOD WHITE MAN. MS. CLINTON IS OUR FRIEND AND FATHER.
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 ryanb37
Will this settle as NO if Obama leaves office for any reason prior to 8 years?
or do we have to have the cash tied up for 8 years.
posted 7 weeks ago
the question specifies "the obama administration" so i'd say it would settle as NO if he left office without any attack on an african country.
posted 7 weeks ago

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