What will be the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi supertanker Sirius Star?

Hmm I guess the option of 'Ship attacked, Pirates blow it up' would be 'other outcome'.

Only if the pirates somehow survive blowing it up!

The Saudis will never let all that oil get away. They are business thinkers and if a payoff is the cheapest way out, that's what they will do. When they see the answer, they will act.
What is beyond me is why a group of motivated investors haven't created an oil ship as bait and when the pirates attack hit them so hard that they won't easily attack another ship. After two or three of these, the problem basically will be solved.

@smokydogs: Not sure there. There's just too many ships to cash on and these pirates have nothing to lose... and if the Saudis really look for the cheapest way, they will take into account the long run. It's no secret what happens if you give in to terrorist demands all the time.

German military officials say they recommend 500 (!) ships to get the situation under control. By now there's 15...
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,592777,00.html

horatiomonty, "the long run" will be avoiding the Somali coast. The short run is getting back the tanker and the oil and saving the hostages. I just saw an interesting piece that showed treatment of the hostages to be fairly good and that the pirates first and foremost interest to be the money. I also saw where the French had tracked down the pirates and their money from a previous hijacking. I still think if all the current hostages, tankers, and oil were paid off, then a dedicated anti-hijacking strategy of a bait ship that would kill or capture the pirates when they tried another hijacking coupled with re-routing the real oil tankers during this time would put the fear of God or Allah or whomever into them. The simple fact is that hijacking is a relatively easy thing for the pirates to do so the answer is to make it very hard to get to the tankers and present the fear of death if the wrong ship is attacked. Ransom with a plan to end the future attacks may be a winning strategy.

I assume if there is no change to the situation by the closure date the result is 'Other outcome'?

Hm, good question. I expected this to be long over by then. What's the administrators' view? We could also extend the suspend date?!

I'd also like to know if 'other outcome' is what's applied to nothing happening.

Feels like I've been sitting on this bet forever. I'd prefer this one is settled and a new one dealing with this be created rather than an extension on this settlement date.

I thought by now someone would've responded to this question so I've flagged for an answer. Hopefully it arrives before the suspension date.

The question settles based on the resolution of the situation. Suspend dates are not binding, unless they are made so explicitly in the question text or background. In this case, the question is about what happens, not what happens by year-end.

Seems the Supertanker may be released by the Pirates, but it isn't clear just yet, although the talk from the spokesman makes it seem kind of clear.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=80017§ionid=351020501

An end to this saga.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7820311.stm

Ransom paid. Pirates disembark. Ship heading out to sea.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=6611756&page=1

Thanks for the settlement requests. I'm going to wait a few hours more and see about whether the pirates "get away", and then I'll settle. If you hear they've been captured, then send that in as settlement request.

I can't help posting this:

Somali pirates drown with share of ransom from Sirius Star hijack
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/10/sirius-star-somalia-pirates-drown

Five of the Somali pirates who released a hijacked, oil-laden Saudi supertanker drowned with their share of a reported $3m (£1.96m) ransom after their small boat capsized, local sources said today.

A pirate who was not part of the pirate operation but knew those involved, Daud Nure, said the boat with eight people on board overturned in a storm after dozens of pirates left the Sirius Star, following a two-month standoff in the Gulf of Aden, that ended yesterday.

He said five people died and three people reached the shore after swimming for several hours.

Jamal Abdulle, a resident of the Somali coastal town of Haradhere, close to where the ship was anchored, also confirmed that the boat sank and that the portion of the ransom money that had been shared between dozens of pirates was lost.


(More at the link)

Karma's a.........

Makes it a little tricky to settle, Some pirates got away, none appear to have been captured (killed was only an option qualifier if the pirates were attacked). Hmm.

Oh wait. The settlement notes say that "get away" only means none captured, so I'll settle it as the first option. Phew.

Body of a Somali Pirate, Carrying $153,000 of a Ransom, Washes Ashore
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/12/world/africa/12somalia.html?_r=1

The body of a Somali pirate who drowned just after receiving part of a ransom washed ashore with more than $150,000 in cash, a resident of Xarardheere, a coastal town, said Sunday.

Haha, haven't thought of that one. But correctly settled, thanks infernalmachine. Seems as if Allah took charge of the verdict... :-))