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Created Thu 20th Nov 2008 3:49am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
All questions » Politics » US Politics » 

What will be the result of Gallup's Presidential Favorability polls on Monday?

Settled as Obama +35 to +39

65-27=38

Background:

And here I thought the days of Gallup polling were over.. how foolish of me. Now instead of two presidential candidates to track, we have two presidents!

Sorry about the late post.. Kind of forgot about this market this week!
Another busy week with Obama's choices for Attorney General and Homeland Security leaking out. Hillary seems a shoe-in for State if she wants it (and Bill can keep his nose clean). There are a lot of Clinton-democrats piling up in key positions, and change-mongers are starting to grumble... will the choices effect their confidence in Obama? How will Bush's handling of the Auto Industry meltdown effect his approval ratings?

Settlement based on: Obama Confidence (Confident percentage) - Bush Job Approval (Approve)
Note: Results are based on 3 day rolling averages, so polls released on Monday afternoon are based on calls made Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights.



Settlement details: Results are released ~1300 EST Monday afternoon.

Settlement based on: Obama Confidence(Confident percentage) - Bush Job Approval (Approve)

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Obama +50 or more
1%
Obama +45 to +49
2%
Obama +40 to +44
85%
Obama +35 to +39
10%
Obama +30 to +34
1%
Obama +29 or less
0%
Activity: H$30,211
Settled as Obama +35 to +39 on Mon 24th Nov 2008 10:43am PST

Suspend date: Sun 23rd Nov 2008 4am PST Settlement date: Mon 24th Nov 2008 10:43am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 23rd Nov 2008 4am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama +50 or more: 15%, Obama +45 to +49: 20%, Obama +40 to +44: 30%, Obama +35 to +39: 20%, Obama +30 to +34: 10%, Obama +29 or less: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 20th Nov 2008 3:49am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Changed Description Thu 20th Nov 2008 4am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... meltdown effect his approval ratings? <?<br/> <br/> <b>Settlement based on: Obama Confidence (FavorableConfident percentage) - Bush Job Approval (Approve)</b> <><br/> Note: Results are based ... Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights. <.<br/> <br/> <center><object type=" ... ="always" name="allowScriptAccess"></object></center> <><br/>
Changed Settlement info Thu 20th Nov 2008 4am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... released ~1300 EST Monday afternoon. <.<br/> <br/> Settlement based on: Obama Favorability (FavorableConfidence(Confident percentage) - Bush Job Approval (Approve
Suspended Sun 23rd Nov 2008 4am PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Obama +35 to +39' Mon 24th Nov 2008 10:43am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: 65-27=38

Suspend date: Sun 23rd Nov 2008 4am PST Settlement date: Mon 24th Nov 2008 10:43am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 23rd Nov 2008 4am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (145)

145 predictions

6 weeks ago
oafarivar predicted Obama +40 to +44 (H$5,000 at 74%)
6 weeks ago
sdassani predicted Obama +35 to +39 (H$20 at 28%)
6 weeks ago
bigh165 predicted Obama +45 to +49 (H$100 at 5%)
6 weeks ago
axollot predicted Obama +40 to +44 (H$100 at 61%)
6 weeks ago
msknowitall predicted Obama +40 to +44 (H$1,500 at 54%)
more

Comments (7)

  1 curios
no thanks Jenni
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 jenniandboys[Admin]
@curios - That's fine anyone is always welcome to decline any challenge they want to. No hard feelings!
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 randburg
Thank you for keeping me on your challenge list, but I must decline this one. I thought the late post maybe meant that we were going to skip Bush-bashing this week. Afterall, he is nearly out of office and not likely to do anything at this point...
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 emmag
I think we need to be keeping an eye on Mr. Bush. He is overturning all kinds of environmental regulations.
posted 7 weeks ago
  5 dragonfangxl
Bush. I am sorry to see you go. Still look to the future! We got 4 years of nothing ahead of us! I cant wait for Obama to get in that office so he can sit and do nothing! Just like he did in illinois and like he did in the senate. Plus, for an added bonus, anything that does go right will somehow be linked to Obama and anything that does go wrong will be blamed on.... My guess is Bush.
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
dragonfang - good guess on the blame game. i'm curious to see how long the MSM will continue it. eventually it has to be the "obama" years and no more blaming bush.
posted 7 weeks ago
  7 dragonfangxl
Theyll find some way to blame it on bush. Bad economy? Bushes fault. Job Loss? Bushes fault. Hurricane Katrina? Amazingly, they blamed this on bush, http://www.socialdailynews.com/2007/09/george-bush-doesnt-like-black-people/ . Whats next? Tree falls on someone in africa? Blame Bush.
posted 7 weeks ago

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