Home Hubdub logo
 
Net worth: H$1,000
Guest:Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's virtual currency, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
PoliticsSportEntertainmentWorldBusinessTechnologyScienceGeneral

When will Keith Olbermann cease to count down the days since Bush declared "Mission Accomplished"?

Current forecast: Some time after Inauguration Day (46% chance3%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Some time after Inauguration Day with a probability of 46% (down 3% in last 1 day)

"...Olbermann closes (Countdown with Keith Olbermann) by counting the days since May 1, 2003, the day President George W. Bush declared "mission accomplished" in Iraq, and then crumpling up his notes, throwing them at the camera and saying "Good night and good luck"..." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Olbermann)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

Before Inauguration Day, January 20, 2009
12%
On Inauguration Day
42%
Some time after Inauguration Day
46%
Activity: H$22,044
Question suspends in 1 week

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 8am PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: Before Inauguration Day, January 20, 2009: 5%, On Inauguration Day: 50%, Some time after Inauguration Day: 45%

Action history:

Created Thu 20th Nov 2008 5:27am PST by paul444

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 8am PST (1 week to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (42)

42 predictions

9 hours ago
frankgarcia61 predicted On Inauguration Day (H$30 at 42%)
12 hours ago
bigken1 predicted Some time after Inauguration Day (H$1,000 at 39%)
12 hours ago
bigken1 predicted On Inauguration Day (H$2,000 at 39%)
12 hours ago
bigken1 predicted On Inauguration Day (H$20 at 27%)
1 week ago
bigken1 predicted Before Inauguration Day, January 20, 2009 (H$3,000 at 67%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 paul444
Kudos to macdust for the suggestion of this question.
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 paul444
RE: percentages. Difficult for me to apply. 5% before because he may defer to Obama's pending inauguration and Bush's lame duckedness (?!) in the days leading up to the Inauguration. 50% on Inauguration Day because the whole shtick maybe was only a slam at Bush. 45% after Inauguration Day because it's being used as heat to get the Commander In Chief to remove troops from Iraq.
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 bigken1
Great question, paul, but (and sorry about this), how is cease officially defined? If you smoke every day, but then
say stop on day 100, did you cease on day 99, or on day 100? Because one might say you ceased on day 99, and didn't do it after that. Do you have a definition for this? thx, ken
posted 6 weeks ago
  4 paul444
I'm not sure your example is quite the same since the cessation of smoking could happen any time over the period of 24 hours. He will either say it or not, and if not, that will be the day it ceased. My concern is what to do if he doesn't do it on Inauguration Day, out of respect or whatever, and picks it back up the day after. Thoughts?
posted 6 weeks ago
  5 bigken1
As I said, great question. The settlement may present difficulties however, as you say. Nevertheless, I would hope that what you are saying does not happen. Perhaps, you might want to say how such an event would settle, so we would know...
posted 2 weeks ago
We'll go with the first day he DOESN'T say it. So in your smoking example, it would be day 100. It won't matter if it starts again the next day.
posted 2 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
who watches bloberman to see when he doesn't say it? i think he has 3 viewers so i'm guessing the admin is one.

paul - out of respect? when did bloberman show any respect?

this flame throwing is fun..i need some practice to reach the level of dragonfang or cons2.
posted 2 weeks ago
  8 paul444
Thanks for adding something constructive, dieseldog. I get the feeling you're fat.
posted 3 days ago
  9 dieseldog
paul - your welcome.
posted 2 days ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

What is Hubdub?

Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.

Join now   or   learn more