
Guantanamo: How many more prisoners will be ordered released before Christmas 2008?
While truthout.org may not be a "major mainstream news source," this story is very likely to be picked up and followed on by major newspapers and other sources. So this question is asking: between November 21, 2008 and December 25, 3008, how many Guantanamo Bay prisoners will be reported as having been released? To qualify as a release, the prisoner has to be alive. Two hundred fifty prisoners still remain as of November 20. The aforementioned case ordering five prisoners released is likely to be appealed. Note that the prisoners do not have to physically leave the base in order to satisfy this question. It is not clear that such a departure would be reported. Therefore, this question only asks how many will be ordered to be released.
http://www.truthout.org/112008R
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
| 0-4 prisoners ordered released |
| |||
| 5-10 ordered released |
| |||
| 11-20 ordered released |
| |||
| 21-30 ordered released |
| |||
| 31+ ordered released |
|
Suspend date: Mon 22nd Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 25th Dec 2008 12:09am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 22nd Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: 0-4 prisoners ordered released: 20%, 5-10 ordered released: 30%, 11-20 ordered released: 25%, 21-30 ordered released: 14%, 31+ ordered released: 11%
Action history:
Suspend date: Mon 22nd Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 25th Dec 2008 12:09am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 22nd Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (43)
43 predictions
Comments (3)
What is Hubdub?
Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.
Join now or learn moreRelated News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
Related tags
New in Politics » US Politics
More questions by
25 settled, 11 voided




there might be some clarification required for how settled. Because, the ones that were "ordered released" so far HAVE NOT been released. So, do the people have to be released, or just "ordered released". (the releases are being considered again, by the bush admin, to see if they can be reversed)... The wheels of justice grind very very slowly. It is like a Kafka story!! Please let me know how you decide.
(supporting why someone was in jail or being tried, etc.)...
The group of 5 and the group of 13 were both ordered released BEFORE these dates, and don't count towards the settling of the question. We are looking for how many NEW RELEASES will be ordered between November 21st and December 25th.
Please log in or join to add a comment