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Guantanamo: How many more prisoners will be ordered released before Christmas 2008?

Settled as 0-4 prisoners ordered released

On Nov. 20, Truthout reported, "In the first hearing on the government's justification for holding detainees at the Guantánamo Bay detention camp, a federal judge ruled Thursday that five Algerian men were held unlawfully for nearly seven years and ordered their release... [In October,] another district court judge in Washington... ordered the release of 17 other detainees, all ethnic Uighurs from western China. The judge did not hold a hearing on the evidence in that case because the government conceded that the men were not enemy combatants."

While truthout.org may not be a "major mainstream news source," this story is very likely to be picked up and followed on by major newspapers and other sources. So this question is asking: between November 21, 2008 and December 25, 3008, how many Guantanamo Bay prisoners will be reported as having been released? To qualify as a release, the prisoner has to be alive. Two hundred fifty prisoners still remain as of November 20. The aforementioned case ordering five prisoners released is likely to be appealed. Note that the prisoners do not have to physically leave the base in order to satisfy this question. It is not clear that such a departure would be reported. Therefore, this question only asks how many will be ordered to be released.

http://www.truthout.org/112008R


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

0-4 prisoners ordered released
88%
5-10 ordered released
7%
11-20 ordered released
2%
21-30 ordered released
1%
31+ ordered released
1%
Activity: H$20,666
Settled as 0-4 prisoners ordered released on Thu 25th Dec 2008 12:09am PST

Suspend date: Mon 22nd Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 25th Dec 2008 12:09am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 22nd Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0-4 prisoners ordered released: 20%, 5-10 ordered released: 30%, 11-20 ordered released: 25%, 21-30 ordered released: 14%, 31+ ordered released: 11%

Action history:

Created Thu 20th Nov 2008 9:10pm PST by capecodviking
Suspended Mon 22nd Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as '0-4 prisoners ordered released' Thu 25th Dec 2008 12:09am PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 22nd Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 25th Dec 2008 12:09am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 22nd Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (43)

43 predictions

2 weeks ago
gtown predicted 0-4 prisoners ordered released (H$100 at 88%)
2 weeks ago
thomasianmangnall predicted 0-4 prisoners ordered released (H$20 at 88%)
2 weeks ago
peterwindlehill predicted 0-4 prisoners ordered released (H$50 at 88%)
3 weeks ago
robamichael predicted 0-4 prisoners ordered released (H$50 at 88%)
3 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted 0-4 prisoners ordered released (H$2,000 at 85%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 bigken1
Nice question capecod!!
there might be some clarification required for how settled. Because, the ones that were "ordered released" so far HAVE NOT been released. So, do the people have to be released, or just "ordered released". (the releases are being considered again, by the bush admin, to see if they can be reversed)... The wheels of justice grind very very slowly. It is like a Kafka story!! Please let me know how you decide.
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 bigken1
There was a line I remember from somewhere (anyone know where?) "they must be guilty or they wouldn't be here"
(supporting why someone was in jail or being tried, etc.)...
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 randburg
"So this question is asking: between November 21, 2008 and December 25, 3008, how many Guantanamo Bay prisoners will be reported as having been released?" and "Therefore, this question only asks how many will be ordered to be released."

The group of 5 and the group of 13 were both ordered released BEFORE these dates, and don't count towards the settling of the question. We are looking for how many NEW RELEASES will be ordered between November 21st and December 25th.
posted 7 weeks ago

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