Created Fri 21st Nov 2008 2:21am PST by 
andrewpmk
All questions » Politics » Other Politics » andrewpmk 
Who will be the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada?
Settled as Michael Ignatieff
Michael Ignatieff became leader Dec 10.
Background:
The current Liberal leader Stephane Dion has announced he will resign following his loss in the 2008 federal election. Who will replace him? The next Liberal Party convention will be held April 30-May 3, 2009 with the leader being selected on May 2.
Category Editor Clarification: Given the current new possibilities wrt the Liberal Party, it's useful to consider several possibilities outside of the frame of reference when the question was created. Taken as a whole, this question is really "Who will win on May 2, 2009". In other words, it is completely tied to the Liberal leadership convention's outcome. So, if there's no convention, the question will be voided. If the convention is held in the first 6 months of 2009 (actual month/day not crucial), and through some mechanism Dion remains leader, it will settle as Other. For other candidates (including unnamed ones), the question remains as it was, subject to the first-6-month-of-2009 stipulation above.
Category Editor Clarification: Given the current new possibilities wrt the Liberal Party, it's useful to consider several possibilities outside of the frame of reference when the question was created. Taken as a whole, this question is really "Who will win on May 2, 2009". In other words, it is completely tied to the Liberal leadership convention's outcome. So, if there's no convention, the question will be voided. If the convention is held in the first 6 months of 2009 (actual month/day not crucial), and through some mechanism Dion remains leader, it will settle as Other. For other candidates (including unnamed ones), the question remains as it was, subject to the first-6-month-of-2009 stipulation above.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
| Bob Rae |
| |||
| Michael Ignatieff |
| |||
| Dominic LeBlanc |
| |||
| Other |
|
Activity: H$3,119
Settled as Michael Ignatieff on Wed 10th Dec 2008 7:30pm PST
Suspend date: Mon 4th May 12:59am PDT (16 weeks to go) Settlement date: Wed 10th Dec 2008 7:30pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 10th Dec 2008 10:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Bob Rae: 45%, Michael Ignatieff: 40%, Dominic LeBlanc: 5%, Other: 10%
Action history:
Created Fri 21st Nov 2008 2:21am PST by andrewpmk
andrewpmk
Changed Description Thu 4th Dec 2008 7:14am PST by 
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... being selected on May 2..<br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Clarification:</b> Given the current new possibilities wrt the Liberal Party, it's useful to consider several possibilities outside of the frame of reference when the question was created. Taken as a whole, this question is really "Who will win on May 2, 2009". In other words, it is completely tied to the Liberal leadership convention's outcome. So, if there's no convention, the question will be voided. If the convention is held in 2009 (actual month/day not crucial)
Changed Description Thu 4th Dec 2008 7:19am PST by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... the convention is held in the first 6 months of 2009 (actual month/day not crucial)), and through some mechanism Dion remains leader, it will settle as Other. For other candidates (including unnamed ones), the question remains as it was, subject to the first-6-month-of-2009 stipulation above.
Settlement requested Wed 10th Dec 2008 7:04pm PST by 
storekeeperathscm
: Michael Ignatieff has taken over from Dion and is the new leader of the party.
storekeeperathscm: Michael Ignatieff has taken over from Dion and is the new leader of the party.
Settled as 'Michael Ignatieff' Wed 10th Dec 2008 7:30pm PST by infernalmachine: Michael Ignatieff became leader Dec 10.
infernalmachine: Michael Ignatieff became leader Dec 10.
Suspend date: Mon 4th May 12:59am PDT (16 weeks to go) Settlement date: Wed 10th Dec 2008 7:30pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 10th Dec 2008 10:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (32)
32 predictions
aland
predicted Michael Ignatieff (H$100 at 62%)
predicted Michael Ignatieff (H$300 at 60%)
arki
horsefeathers
jakethesnake
predicted Michael Ignatieff (H$100 at 54%)
predicted Michael Ignatieff (H$200 at 52%)
predicted Bob Rae (H$20 at 39%)
predicted Bob Rae (H$20 at 37%)
php_ini
predicted Bob Rae (H$100 at 36%)
growthyComments (3)
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This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
Canada.com 4 weeks ago
as John McCallum or Ralph Goodale between Dion's possible early resignation and the April 29-May 3 scheduled leadership convention in Vancouver - when he was planning to step down because of Liberal losses in the Oct. 14 election. They favour a permanent
score: 10
Canada.com 4 weeks ago
Wednesday over whether to immediately install Michael Ignatieff as party leader. The plan was vigorously opposed Monday by leadership contender Bob Rae, and threatens to split a party already in a state of upheaval. Also on Monday, Liberal Leader
score: 10
National Post 4 weeks ago
OTTAWA -- Stephane Dion has resigned as leader of the Liberal party and the race to succeed him is now a two-man contest with the withdrawal of New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc. 'I have decided to step aside as leader of
score: 10
Canada.com 4 weeks ago
OTTAWA - Stephane Dion has resigned as leader of the Liberal party and the race to succeed him is now a two-man contest with the withdrawal of New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc. 'I have decided to step aside as leader of
score: 10
National Post 4 weeks ago
OTTAWA - Stephane Dion has resigned as leader of the Liberal party as the race to succeed him becomes a two-man contest with the anticipated withdrawal of New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc. 'I have decided to step aside as leader of
Related tags
New in Politics » Other politics
Obviously, this is all based on the possibility of Dion becoming PM in the near future as the head of the Liberal-NDP coalition (with BQ support for an agreed time period). If this doesn't occur, then there is the unknown of whether the coalition continues or dissolves. But it may turn out that none of these clarifications is needed in the end, in which case the question remains as it was.
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