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How Many iPhones Will Apple Sell in the December Quarter?

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Background:

Apple sold 6.1 million of its (second-generation) iPhones in the September quarter. Most professional Wall Street analysts are predicting that the December quarter will be lower--somewhere between 4 and 5 million sales, because pent-up demand has been satisfied, because competitive smartphones have recently been released, and because of the recession. But one amateur analyst, who has a better track record than the pros (Andy Zack), predicts 9.1 million sales.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. (Apple will announce the results in late January.)

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Suspended

Under 3 million
3%
3-4 million
6%
4-5 million
34%
5-6 million
33%
6-7 million
13%
7-8 million
7%
Over 8 million
3%
Activity: H$2,517
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Under 3 million: 5%, 3-4 million: 10%, 4-5 million: 30%, 5-6 million: 25%, 6-7 million: 15%, 7-8 million: 10%, Over 8 million: 5%

Action history:

Created Fri 21st Nov 2008 6:58am PST by rogerkni
Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (16)

16 predictions

1 week ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted 4-5 million (H$750 at 28%)
2 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted 5-6 million (H$300 at 36%)
2 weeks ago
dasundnc predicted 4-5 million (H$50 at 24%)
3 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted 7-8 million (H$50 at 9%)
3 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted 6-7 million (H$100 at 15%)
more

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