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How many people on this list will be pardoned by Bush on or before January 20th?

Current forecast: 4-6 are pardoned (33% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 4-6 are pardoned with a probability of 33% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Pro Publica has put together a list of 20 people that could be considered for a Presidential pardon.

The article and a brief footnote about each along with the likelihood of their potential to be pardoned can be read here:

<a href="http://www.propublica.org/article/i-beg-your-pardon-1120/">http://www.propublica.org/article/i-beg-your-pardon-1120/<;/a>

I have added 5 members of Bush's cabinet just to make it more fun.

The list is comprised of these people:

1) Marion Jones - The disgraced Olympic gold medalist returned five awards after she was sentenced to six months in jail in January for lying to federal agents about using steroids. She was released on Sept. 5. Jones offense is considered mild, and her sentence was brief, but the president may not want to reward someone who cost the United States Olympic Gold. Likelihood: Unlikely
2) Michael Vick - The Atlanta Falcons' suspended quarterback is serving a 23-month sentence in Leavenworth, Kan., for criminal conspiracy relating to dog fighting. Yuck. There just isn't much of a pro dog-fighting lobby to pull for Vick. Likelihood: No chance.
3) Barry Bonds
4) Florita Bell Griffin
5) The Texas Border Patrol Guards
6) Scooter Libby
7) James Tobin
8) Tom Noe
9) Ted Stevens
10) Bob Ney
11) Randy Cunningham
12) Brent Wilkes
13) Kyle 'Dusty' Foggo
14) Jack Abramhoff
15) J. Steven Griles
16) David Safavian
17) Michael Milken
18) Jeff Skilling
19) Andrew Fastow
20) Martha Stewart
21) Dick Cheney
22) Donald Rumsfeld
23) Alberto Gonzoles
24) Condoleeza Rice
25) Karl Rove


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

All 25 are pardoned
1%
22-24 are pardoned
1%
19-21 are pardoned
1%
16-18 are pardoned
5%
13-15 are pardoned
5%
10-12 are pardoned
6%
7-9 are pardoned
9%
4-6 are pardoned
33%
1-3 are pardoned
32%
none are pardoned
8%
Activity: H$8,862
Question suspends in 1 week

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: All 25 are pardoned: 2%, 22-24 are pardoned: 2%, 19-21 are pardoned: 3%, 16-18 are pardoned: 15%, 13-15 are pardoned: 15%, 10-12 are pardoned: 18%, 7-9 are pardoned: 18%, 4-6 are pardoned: 15%, 1-3 are pardoned: 10%, none are pardoned: 2%

Action history:

Created Fri 21st Nov 2008 11:18am PST by conspiracy2riot

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (59)

59 predictions

2 days ago
katelewis predicted 1-3 are pardoned (H$5 at 32%)
1 week ago
emmag predicted 4-6 are pardoned (H$50 at 28%)
1 week ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted 1-3 are pardoned (H$1 at 31%)
2 weeks ago
vidal1 predicted 1-3 are pardoned (H$100 at 30%)
2 weeks ago
no_brakes predicted 1-3 are pardoned (H$20 at 30%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 nextpaige
What possible blanket pardons?
posted 6 weeks ago
My guess is that President Bush will not pardon outright terrorists like Clinton did at the end of his last term.
posted 5 weeks ago
  4 bigken1
Since the top number is 25, but some of the numbered items relate to more than 1 person, assume each number accounts for 1 unit in answer?
posted 5 weeks ago
  5 kruijs[Power User]
just glad, Toussie is not on the list here. could be difficult to settle.
posted 1 week ago
LOL, krujis
posted 1 week ago

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