kirin
Who will be the next leader of the french Socialist Party?
Martine Aubry won the vote by less than 50 votes. Although the question was asked around the time of the voting, there were still several hours until the results were released, so I'll allow the question. However, the results were released at around 6am Paris time on Saturday, so predictions made after that are cancelled. If the party reruns the vote and Aubry doesn't win, I will resettle the question.
http://www.france24.com/en/20081122-martine-aubry-wins-french-socialist-party-leadership-vote-france
Background:
The second vote on Friday, which comes amid bitter party rifts, pits former presidential candidate Segolene Royal against Lille Mayor Martine Aubry.
Leftist MEP Benoit Hamon is out of the race after coming third in Thursday's vote. None of the candidates gained the 50% needed to avoid a run-off vote.
In the first round, Ms Royal gained 42.5% of the vote, Ms Aubry 34.7% and Mr Hamon 22.8%.
After the count, Mr Hamon - who is seen by some as being too far-left - urged those who had backed him to vote for Ms Aubry in the second round.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7741015.stm
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
|
|
Ségolène Royal |
|
||
|
|
Martine Aubry |
|
||
|
|
Other outcome |
|
Suspend date: Fri 28th Nov 2008 5:59pm PST Settlement date: Sat 22nd Nov 2008 4:35pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 21st Nov 2008 9pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Ségolène Royal: 50%, Martine Aubry: 45%, Other outcome: 5%
Action history:
kirin kirin: Martine Aubry probably won, but by a very slight margin. Maybe too soon to settle, but best to suspend.
http://news.theage.com.au/world/french-socialists-clash-as-aubry-wins-leadership-vote-20081122-6ehi.html
onedave![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: Flagged by super user: Sending to category editor. It appears as though the vote was held before market creation.
http://news.theage.com.au/world/french-socialists-clash-as-aubry-wins-leadership-vote-20081122-6ehi.html
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Martine Aubry won the vote by less than 50 votes. Although the question was asked around the time of the voting, there were still several hours until the results were released, so I'll allow the question. However, the results were released at around 6am Paris time on Saturday, so predictions made after that are cancelled. If the party reruns the vote and Aubry doesn't win, I will resettle the question.
http://www.france24.com/en/20081122-martine-aubry-wins-french-socialist-party-leadership-vote-france
Suspend date: Fri 28th Nov 2008 5:59pm PST Settlement date: Sat 22nd Nov 2008 4:35pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 21st Nov 2008 9pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (9)
9 predictions
sdchargers
predicted Ségolène Royal (H$200 at 65%)
predicted Martine Aubry (H$800 at 28%)
joaoxxx
predicted Martine Aubry (H$50 at 22%)
chrisfmasse
predicted Martine Aubry (H$40 at 21%)Comments (1)
What is Hubdub?
Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.
Join now or learn moreRelated News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
Please log in or join to add a comment