Created Fri 21st Nov 2008 6:38pm PST by 
petefin
All questions » Business » Indices » petefin 
Will any of the 30 DJIA companies be gone from the index by 31 Dec 2009
Current forecast: At least one goes by end March 09 (32% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is At least one goes by end March 09 with a probability of 32% (unchanged in last 1 day)
The Dow. DJIA. By far the most quoted stock index (even though it's not actually an index).Here they are.Will it still be the same group by the end of '09. At least a couple are looking a little shaky.
Alcoa Inc. AA
American Express Company AXP
AT&T Corp. T
Boeing Co. BA
Caterpillar Inc. CAT
Coca-Cola Co. KO
E.I. Du Pont de Nemours DD
Eastman Kodak Co. EK
Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM
General Electric Company GE
General Motors Corp. GM
Home Depot Inc HD
Honeywell International Inc HON
Hewlett-Packard Co. HWP
International Business Machines Corp. IBM
Intel Corp. INTC
International Paper Co. IP
Johnson & Johnson JNJ
McDonald's Corp. MCD
Merck & Co. Inc. MRK
Microsoft Corp. MSFT
Minnesota Mining & Mfg. Co. MMM
J. P. Morgan & Company JPM
Philip Morris Companies Inc. MO
Procter & Gamble Co. PG
SBC Communications Inc. SBC
Citigroup Inc. C
United Technologies Corp. UTX
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT
Walt Disney Co.
Once any option happens, the question will be settled at that point and all subsequent options will have lost.
Alcoa Inc. AA
American Express Company AXP
AT&T Corp. T
Boeing Co. BA
Caterpillar Inc. CAT
Coca-Cola Co. KO
E.I. Du Pont de Nemours DD
Eastman Kodak Co. EK
Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM
General Electric Company GE
General Motors Corp. GM
Home Depot Inc HD
Honeywell International Inc HON
Hewlett-Packard Co. HWP
International Business Machines Corp. IBM
Intel Corp. INTC
International Paper Co. IP
Johnson & Johnson JNJ
McDonald's Corp. MCD
Merck & Co. Inc. MRK
Microsoft Corp. MSFT
Minnesota Mining & Mfg. Co. MMM
J. P. Morgan & Company JPM
Philip Morris Companies Inc. MO
Procter & Gamble Co. PG
SBC Communications Inc. SBC
Citigroup Inc. C
United Technologies Corp. UTX
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT
Walt Disney Co.
Once any option happens, the question will be settled at that point and all subsequent options will have lost.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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At least one goes by end March 09 |
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.... one goes between April and June 09 |
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.... one goes between July and September 09 |
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....one goes between October and December 09 |
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Same 30 after 31 December 2009 |
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Activity: H$11,951
Question suspends in 50 weeks
Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (50 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: At least one goes by end March 09: 15%, .... one goes between April and June 09: 15%, .... one goes between July and September 09 : 15%, ....one goes between October and December 09: 15%, Same 30 after 31 December 2009: 40%
Action history:
Created Fri 21st Nov 2008 6:38pm PST by petefin
petefin
Changed Description Sat 22nd Nov 2008 9:02am PST by 
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
bayoubear: show details ... . WMT <br/> Walt Disney Co.. <br/> <br/> <b>Once any option happens, the question will be settled at that point and all subsequent options will have lost.</b>
Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (50 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (45)
45 predictions
lcsnor
cognos![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted ....one goes between October and December 09 (H$333 at 12%)
widescreen
predicted At least one goes by end March 09 (H$100 at 37%)
jpkoester1
youbet
predicted At least one goes by end March 09 (H$200 at 59%)
capt_chaos
predicted .... one goes between July and September 09 (H$50 at 8%)
jenniandboys
predicted At least one goes by end March 09 (H$500 at 56%)
rogerkni
kennykComments (5)
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score: 10
MarketWatch 1 day ago
GOOG:GOOGNews , chart , profile , more Last: Delayed quote data Analyst Create alert Insider Discuss Financials Sponsored by:, , ) . The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA:DJIANews , chart , profile , more Last: Delayed quote data Analyst Create alert
score: 10
MarketWatch 1 day ago
GOOG:GOOGNews , chart , profile , more Last: Delayed quote data Analyst Create alert Insider Discuss Financials Sponsored by:, , ) . The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA:DJIANews , chart , profile , more Last: Delayed quote data Analyst Create alert
score: 10
MarketWatch 1 day ago
GOOG:GOOGNews , chart , profile , more Last: Delayed quote data Analyst Create alert Insider Discuss Financials Sponsored by:, , ) . The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA:DJIANews , chart , profile , more Last: Delayed quote data Analyst Create alert
score: 10
Reuters India 1 week ago
NEW YORK, Dec 31 (Reuters) - The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI lost 33.8 percent and had its third worst year ever in 2008, surpassed only by 1931 and 1907. During 2008, the index shed three components
score: 10
MarketWatch 1 week ago
profile , more Last: Delayed quote data Analyst Create alert Insider Discuss Financials Sponsored by:, , ) added 2.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA:DJIANews , chart , profile , more Last: Delayed quote data Analyst Create alert Insider Discuss
The S&P 500 index is in very bad shape for example. Nearly 200 out of the 500 no longer officially qualify to be part of that index as their market cap is below 4 billion.
Still a bit unclear - what I mean is if you take the fourth option, one going in February would still have gone by December 31
I'll see about adjusting the option terms to clarify this.
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