Who will fill Hillary Clinton's Senate seat?

What if Hillary is not offered the SoS position? What if she is offered ambassador to umm haiti? Is the question /prediciton still valid..since this entire question is premised on her accepting SoS....what if she get assassinated? I dont mean to be a pain but I find it rather presumptuous to be discussing who is gonna fill her seat because she is going to be SoS....there is no OFFICIAL word, there are senate confirmation hearings to occur....so would i predict other? for all of those above reasons?

@nadine - Yes, I did hesitate to make this market since there is nothing official, but I read a LOT of political blogs and they're all buzzing about who's going to replace her. Since we're here to predict the news, it seemed like a topic we should be covering. A sampling:
http://www.whec.com/article/stories/S673621.shtml?cat=566
http://www.wktv.com/explorepolitics/34896039.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/22/nyregion/22york.html?_r=1&em
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2008/11/22/cuomo-favored-hillary-clintons-senate-seat/
http://www.newsday.com/services/newspaper/printedition/saturday/longisland/ny-pojani225937504nov22,0,837742.story
It does say under settlement details that his market is predicated on Hillary resigning her seat to take the Secretary of State position. So if you're betting that she will not take the job, then you should probably just let this market pass you by...

basically you are covering your self it would have been better if this was left till after the 27 Nov and not treated like this one was.
http://www.hubdub.com/m22626/Will_President_Elect_Obama_announce_any_major_cabinet_appointments_this_week_Nov_17th__Nov_21st

Where's the Spitzer clause? I mean option.

Steve Israel ftw!

Someones back side ------- joking of course but none the less factual

Great question Jenni

Rumors I've been hearing is that Bill is the frontrunner if Obama decides he isn't going to name him to the UN.

"On Monday, President-elect Barack Obama announced that he asked his former rival to be his secretary of state.

That means the scramble begins to replace Clinton on Capitol Hill. Among those mentioned to take her seat as New York's junior senator is her husband, former President Bill Clinton".
"In an op-ed column last week in The Washington Post, journalists Karl Meyer and Shareen Blair Brysac urged Paterson to "send Bill Clinton to the Senate."

If that happened, Clinton would become the third former president to go from the White House to Capitol Hill".
- CNN http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/01/clinton.replacement/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

ok, why not chelsea? now she would make a great junior senator...and could start her political career and pave the way for a clinton to be in the whitehouse in 2016...since momma will be much to old.

........strolls out singing.. me n my shadow...........

Bill Clinton not interested in wife's Senate seat

Former President Bill Clinton has no interest in replacing his wife in the U.S. Senate, his spokesman said, adding any speculation that he would be interested is "completely false."

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/02/bill.clinton.senate/

He could bring his own chair

MSNBC confirms Caroline Kennedy is interested in the NY Senate seat....interesting

I love caroline! and will make a wonderful VP choice for 2012 for obama....and great presidential run for 2016..... now that would be historic...

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/12/ny_senate_another_kennedy_in_t.html?hpid=artslot

this article is newsworthy for the content of interested parties

Governor David A. Paterson faces a significant challenge in finding a replacement for Hillary Clinton, who is expected to be confirmed as secretary of state in January. Not only is Clinton a hard act to follow, but the job of representing NY State is no easy task.

Have you ever spent time with people from Montauk and Buffalo in the same room? To the residents of Manhattan, Westchester County is upstate! To the residents of Oswego, Brooklyn might as well be another country. New York State contains such geographic, economic, ideological and environmental diversity that balancing the state's concerns can be as tough as balancing the nation's.

http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-opfocus5954329dec07,0,4704818.story

@growthy very astute observations

Yup NY's a pain in the ass. I say we lease it to Canada.

Sources close to the governor (journalistic speak for 'the governor') say odds are no better than 20/1 on Kennedy getting the seat: http://www.nypost.com/seven/12082008/news/columnists/paterson_cool_on_caroline_143173.htm

News media (The New York Times) reports Caroline Kennedy will seek Hillary Clinton's senate seat.

yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
*Deck the Halls with lots of liberals... Fa laLaLaLa...LaLaLaLa!!!!*

What's the asking price? I might be interested. :-) Seriously how can they turn down a Kennedy? A stint in the Senate and presto another Kennedy in the White House (the first female president). Carry on the tradition (dynasty) of Jack, Bobby, Teddy and Patrick. Did I miss any? :-)

@frank: Jello Biafra

If you talk to New Yorkers especially upstate they feel Hillary did nothing for them..she promised jobs and after being elected never delivered nor returned. Her accomplishments were not any great shakes. Caroline, on the other hand, has lived in NY most of her life, is, I believe an attorney which is helpful, could raise oodles of money and endorsed Obama early. That could certainly favor NY if she is senator. Hillary is noticeably silent and I think it would be poetic justice if she replaces her and does a great deal for New York and she would not use it as a stepping stone to Washington.

I am envisioning an energetic, passionate Caroline coming on the scene and taking a run for Pres down the road. I far prefer her over HIllary. Of course, I'd probably prefer Fran Drescher over Hillary.

Give us Fran Drescher, please! Anyone but a Kennedy!!!!

Awww, C'mon thisson....please not whiny, screechy Fran....

Why not? You can mute the TV when she comes on, and let's face it, she's not so bad to look at!

True. I could mute and put the close captioning on....

hm, Kennedys, Clintons.. Daly's for that matter. I want to see some actual NEW blood in government, these old families think they own this country. Britain has fewer nobleman than us these days.

I think Caroline blew her chance... ya know :-)

Caroline has no experience - she is a contrast with Sarah Palin, who had more experience than all the other candidates combined on both major tickets in the last presidential election. New York is kind of different though - they elected Hillary Clinton, who is not a New Yorker, just moved there from Washington DC. If anything she should have had a seat in Arkansas or Illinois.

Leave Illinois alone. We've already suffered enough from pay-to-play, cronyism and patronage. Let Boston take her.

Does anyone remember when that guy blew $100,000 of his own money to make John McCain look better on the Intrade polls? Looks as if the Caroline Kennedy PR flacks are doing the same here.

Hillary Clinton is constitutionally ineligible to serve as Secretary of State in the Obama administration. According to the Ineligibility Clause (Article 1 Section 6) of the United States Constitution, no member of Congress can be appointed to an office that has benefited from a salary increase during the time that Senator or Representative served in Congress.
A January 2008 Executive Order signed by President Bush during Hillary Clinton's current Senate term increased the salary for Secretary of State, thereby rendering Senator Clinton ineligible for the position.

@Erik. I read that they had rolled the salary increase back so they could get around that clause. All news reports I read state that she will be confirmed without problem.

@destry: That may be, I'd have to do some research. However: http://www.judicialwatch.org/news/2008/dec/judicial-watch-announces-list-washingtons-ten-most-wanted-corrupt-politicians-2008

erik - the senate rigged cough cough i mean did adjust her salary so she could he SOS.

if she was a republican it would cause an uproar in the MSM. the link you provided says the senate can't do that. i doubt the MSM will persue the issue.

her salary was adjusted by the senate to meet the requirements for secretary of state...get a life and go on to something of interest

ck - why so testy? eric and i didn't say she wasn't gonna be confirmed. if its true what they say in the link provided by eric then the senate's actions doesn't make her eligible. but what the heck break the law its for a democrat. republicans are the only ones who have to play by the rules. :O)

KMA.....gop playing by the rules....what a bloody joke. NONE of em play by any friggin rules. WE sit here fighting amongst ourselves and they all kick back with a few lines and a cosmo and laugh their asses off at our stupidity.
there IS no party of 'pureness'. there is only shifting public perception and the hope it will turn up somewhere.

Wow....look at the panties getting tied in knots.
destry & diesel....You're correct:
S. J. Res. 46

@dd = republicans play by the rules...best laugh I have had today:)

bush is the greatest president ever! nobama and the dems are the biggest crooks ever!

this message was brought to you by the committee of people who wish dragonfang would return to HD.

hey diesel< what an illogal statement to make, give them a go your r u going on with this stupidity

curios - huh? don't take me as a fool. i'm no fool. wasn't it you that said to lighten up its all tognue in cheek. now crawl back in bed crabby.

You might want to google The Phoenix Memo before you say GWB was the greatest Pres. He did not keep us safe. He blew just about everything...

Wow that was a great link, dd!

Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY): Let's start with the fact that Hillary Clinton is constitutionally ineligible to serve as Secretary of State in the Obama administration. According to the Ineligibility Clause of the United States Constitution, no member of Congress can be appointed to an office that has benefited from a salary increase during the time that Senator or Representative served in Congress. A January 2008 Executive Order signed by President Bush during Hillary Clinton's current Senate term increased the salary for Secretary of State, thereby rendering Senator Clinton ineligible for the position. (Congressional "fixes" do not address the constitutional issue. Her appointment would be in violation of the U.S. Constitution.) And then, of course, there is the long history of corrupt behavior that follows Hillary wherever she goes, including Chinagate, Filegate, pardons for terrorists, pardons for cash (for her brothers), White House fundraising coffees, Whitewater, Travelgate lies, doing business with the State of Arkansas while her husband was governor, Web Hubbell, smear campaigns, false financial disclosure forms, John Huang, Chinese generals, the Lippo Group, paid sleepovers in the Lincoln Bedroom, cattle futures fraud, and stealing White House furniture. (This corruption is still going strong. In 2008, Hillary also received an illegal foreign campaign contribution in the form of a fundraising concert by music icon Elton John.)

Good stuff. Hillary is ineligible to be Secretary of State. Now if we could just see Obama's original birth certificate.

Hmmm, I've reviewed the eligibility clause of the US constitution and I can't see what you're talking about. Go to the original source http://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/constitution.articlei.html#section6 not some biased website with an axe to grind if you want the truth. Besides, don't you think Obama would have looked into this a long time ago if there were concerns? What about the other appointees from the senate? Seems like a witch hunt to me.

I went to that site actually. I don't understand how you can't see that she is ineligible. Are you illiterate?

From the link provided:
"No Senator or Representative shall, during the time for which he was elected, be appointed to any civil office under the authority of the United States, which shall have been created, or the emoluments whereof shall have been increased during such time"

SHOCK POLL: Kennedy Trailing Cuomo Huge
Public Policy Polling Shows Princess Of Camelot Losing Grip On New Yorkers, Falls Behind 20 Points Among Dems

NEW YORK (CBS) Caroline Kennedy appears to be losing momentum in her bid for Hillary Clinton's U.S. Senate seat. A new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling shows 58 percent of voters would prefer to see Gov. David Paterson appoint state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to the seat. That's compared to Kennedy's 27 percent.

Among Democratic voters, Cuomo leads by about 20 points. That's about the same lead Kennedy enjoyed just a month earlier. This revelation seems to fly in the face of various reports that have surfaced since the calendar turned to 2009. Sources close to Gov. Paterson have said repeatedly that Kennedy is close to being named as Clinton's successor. Paterson has said the search is ongoing, but on New Year's Day he cautioned everyone vying for the position by saying whoever is chosen to replace Clinton will have to earn re-election in 2010 on his or her own merits.

http://wcbstv.com/politics/caroline.kennedy.us.2.900585.html

New big survey from Quinnipiac - not looking good for Kennedy
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ny_clintons_seat_quinnipiac181.php

i think dragonfang just had her kids removed by NJ's version of child protective services for naming them Adolph Hitler and other offensive aryan names.

Bush...the greatest president ever? Sure, he's an American hating terrorists wet dream...9-11 happened on his watch, he got us into 2 wars, broke the piggy bank and deregulated everything while supporting rigged trade, seeing our jobs outsourced and gagging the scientific community. And to think people claim he never worked.....

The NJ Kids are really a good story (first the cake and now the mystery why the kids are taken away).

Detailled analysis on Kennedy & Cuomo http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1246&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

And another good one for Cuomo http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/

and in 2010 caroline will defiantely get re-elected on her own merits,,and the NY people will all be happy. Caroline is more qualified than many, and people seem to forget every first term senator does not come with senate experience.
Andy Cuomo,,,is a nice guy, but he will not be able to manuever the washington waters any more than his daddy was ever going to be able to or mario would have.

She's least popular in the polls. She's never advanced a legislative agenda. She's never run a campaign. Her contacts in Washington aren't colleagues, but her uncle's friends - and if you've ever had to help a friend's kid get a job, you know how little pull the kid really has.

Nevertheless, New York won't fall into the sea if she's appointed. I think everyone can work around her till she gets bored.

Oops. She's less popular. Not least. Still, there's time.

For those who say Bush didn't keep us safe, ask yourself this question, if another terrorist attack occured, even a minor one, would you be out there saying that it wasn't Bush's fault? No, you would of course be screaming the opposite, you would blame everything he did in the WOT & then move on to declaring his incompetence.

wow uncles kid....i never think of her like that.
I think of Caroline as successful in the way she addressed the severe educational deificits in nyc..as the way she has conducted her life under a microscope and not cracked, the way she has conducted herself as a businesswoman, a lawyer, a mother, a wife, and a friend.
I have watched miss caroline grow up froma little precocious child in the white house,,,as every american my age has done, read some history,,read aobut caroline, there is a lot more aobut her than being the niece of a senator.
to say that is all she is...is like saying a diamond is just a piece of coal.....

Compared to a colleague and a peer, she's a friend's relative. Her contacts in Washington all flow through her uncle. Hence, her relationship to them is as her uncle's niece. She was never a staffer, office holder, or even lobbyist. And before Obama, she never campaigned for anyone who wasn't named Kennedy. Senators are not going to go "oohh a Kennedy" the way a member of the general public will. Compared to the other women up for the job, she has few professional achievements. And there is no reason to believe that they are bad mothers, wives or friends.

(I don't really like this whole Mother/Wife/Friend as a job qualification thing. It seems unseemly to me. Why should we assume one person is better in these private relationships than another? and in what dignified way can we challenge these assertions? Best to leave them aside. One wouldn't want gawker.com to take you seriously and start writing about your marriage.)

In the end, this isn't about whether she's a nice person or not though. It's about whether she's the best qualified. And I can't think of any yardstick one can use to honestly suggest that she is.

NY Post says she's it ... her rivals have been reporting that they know that they are out of the picture.

@mekathleen - You said it! You are SO right!

BreakingNewsOn AP: New York Gov. Paterson says he's considering Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to the U.S. Senate seat left by Hillary Rodham Clinton.

She withdrew from the race...What the?? I knew I should cashed in before it suspended!!!

Yep.....she gone.... http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-caroline22-2009jan22,0,5877639.story

her name should be voided as she withdrew from this race and all monies refunded.

Caroline Kenned Withdraws from Consideration to fill Hillary Clinton's Senate Seat
January 21, 2009 -- LA Times

The N.Y. Post and Times are reporting this evening that Caroline Kennedy, once thought to be a shoo-in as the nominated replacement for new secretary of State Hillary Clinton, has phoned New York Gov. David Paterson to withdraw her name from consideration.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/01/ny-post-carolin.html

Kennedy monies should just be lost

Ha! 87% of $282,833 is $246,152....all parked on Caroline. That's gotta bite.

Just in from Twitter....

BreakingNewsOn Despite media reports earlier, the Associated Press is now reporting that Caroline Kennedy remains in the contest to fill the NY Senate seat 3 minutes ago from BNO Headquarters

There must be some ugly looking balance sheets with this question on the books.

She's in....no wait she's out....no wait she's in. Ahh forget about it!

No, she's definitely out: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/22/AR2009012200359.html

Wow, lots lost on this one, huh? Cuomo and 'Other' seem like decent bets now... ;)

No money should be refunded just because someone withdrew from the race. That's one of the considerations you have to think about when making your wager. Not only, "will they receive the *nod* for the spot?", but "will they accept the position?".... Not everyone listed here has even said they're interested in the job.

i had originally bet on 'other' and then dumped it when i found myself with a boat load of q's suspended and not settled and i was hard up for cash.

glad i'm not in this one now though. funny, nobody seems to care much who will replace Rahm.....he just wants a mediocre person to hang onto his seat so he can return to it later. i hope that doesn't pan out. don't much care for him.

"I, you know, informed Governor Paterson today, you know, um, that for personal reasons, you know, I am withdrawing my name, um, you know, from consideration for the, er, you know, United States Senate" Okay, so NOW it's official
http://forums.fark.com/cgi/fark/comments.pl?IDLink=4160197

Yes Caroline Kennedy is out I didnt put money on her i put it alll on every thing but her lolollol yes yes

Man, how very clever for the Right to make fun of the woman's admittedly annoying "you know" habit! How original! How funny! I tell you what, though: at least CK had the common decency to back out; that's more than can be said for that babbling, bumbling, semi-illiterate doofus who--finally!--moved out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue a few days ago... :)

Now it's being said that Kristen Gillibrand is the front-runner...seeing as she's at 0%, it looks like most of those who are in this one will be losing money.... Hope the latest theories are wrong.

woo some people lost money down here.... ;)

The rumor is on Kirsten G.....Just get it over..

Wow...I actually have my money on Kristen G....I bet before Kennedy seemed likely, and I never bothered to change my bet; I'm feeling lucky today!

And there goes my 4,000

And the winner is: Kristen Gillibrand...at 0% (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28780112/)

SWEET! 14k !! Totally makes up for the Oath disaster. :)

yes i put just 20 and i made 6050 =)