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Who will fill Hillary Clinton's Senate seat?

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Background:

A year ago, then Lieutenant Governor David Patterson was likely hoping to assume Hillary's spot after she was elected president. Now, Governor Patterson is faced with a dramatically different situation. Although not leaving for the position she was initially angling for, it now appears that she will accept the Secretary of State offer and it is Patterson's job to pick her replacement. He's already gotten dozens of offers for the spot, but who will he decide on?

There are complicated politics to consider here, as Patterson tries to strengthen his own re-election bid for 2010 as well as solidify the democratic control of the state's national representatives. Whoever he names will have to face a special election in 2010, as well as a regular election in 2012 -- Republicans will be eager to pick off a weak candidate in one of these face-offs.

KIRSTEN E. GILLIBRAND A first-term congresswoman whose district covers parts of 10 upstate counties.
ANDREW M. CUOMO The state attorney general is called an “obvious choice” for a Senate seat. But “he loves getting things done” in his current role, an associate says.
BYRON W. BROWN Since 2006, Buffalo’s first black mayor, and before that a New York state senator.
CAROLINE KENNEDY Played influential roles in Barack Obama’s campaign, but is considered a long shot for the Senate.
NITA LOWEY A 10-term member of Congress, she spoke at the Democratic National Convention in August.
ADOLFO CARRIÓN JR. The Bronx borough president is Hispanic, which is said to be a factor in the governor’s thinking.
BRIAN HIGGINS A congressman from the Buffalo area.
NYDIA VELAQUEZ another hispanic candidate, and also female to boot.
BILL CLINTON technically legal, but unlikely.


Settlement details: As announced by Governor Patterson's office. If Hillary does not accept the position and thus her seat is still full, the market will be voided.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Suspended

Kristen Gillibrand
1%
Andrew Cuomo
8%
Byron Brown
1%
Caroline Kennedy
78%
Nita Lowey
1%
Adolfo Carrion
0%
Brian Higgins
0%
Nydia Velazquez
1%
Bill Clinton
0%
Other
8%
Activity: H$193,950
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Yesterday 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Kristen Gillibrand: 6%, Andrew Cuomo: 25%, Byron Brown: 6%, Caroline Kennedy: 4%, Nita Lowey: 7%, Adolfo Carrion: 10%, Brian Higgins: 6%, Nydia Velazquez: 10%, Bill Clinton: 1%, Other: 25%

Action history:

Created Sat 22nd Nov 2008 2:07pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Suspended Yesterday 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Yesterday 11:59pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (750)

750 predictions

19 hours ago
ole10589 predicted Caroline Kennedy (H$50 at 78%)
19 hours ago
coolpimp9 predicted Byron Brown (H$11 at 9%)
19 hours ago
betonit predicted Byron Brown (H$79 at 8%)
19 hours ago
iknowit predicted Byron Brown (H$112 at 6%)
19 hours ago
pimpofhubdub predicted Byron Brown (H$174 at 3%)
more

Comments (59)

What if Hillary is not offered the SoS position? What if she is offered ambassador to umm haiti? Is the question /prediciton still valid..since this entire question is premised on her accepting SoS....what if she get assassinated? I dont mean to be a pain but I find it rather presumptuous to be discussing who is gonna fill her seat because she is going to be SoS....there is no OFFICIAL word, there are senate confirmation hearings to occur....so would i predict other? for all of those above reasons?
posted 6 weeks ago
@nadine - Yes, I did hesitate to make this market since there is nothing official, but I read a LOT of political blogs and they're all buzzing about who's going to replace her. Since we're here to predict the news, it seemed like a topic we should be covering. A sampling:
http://www.whec.com/article/stories/S673621.shtml?cat=566
http://www.wktv.com/explorepolitics/34896039.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/22/nyregion/22york.html?_r=1&em
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2008/11/22/cuomo-favored-hillary-clintons-senate-seat/
http://www.newsday.com/services/newspaper/printedition/saturday/longisland/ny-pojani225937504nov22,0,837742.story
It does say under settlement details that his market is predicated on Hillary resigning her seat to take the Secretary of State position. So if you're betting that she will not take the job, then you should probably just let this market pass you by...
posted 6 weeks ago
  3 curios
basically you are covering your self it would have been better if this was left till after the 27 Nov and not treated like this one was.
http://www.hubdub.com/m22626/Will_President_Elect_Obama_announce_any_major_cabinet_appointments_this_week_Nov_17th__Nov_21st
posted 6 weeks ago
Where's the Spitzer clause? I mean option.
posted 6 weeks ago
  5 ryanj[Admin]
Steve Israel ftw!
posted 6 weeks ago
  6 curios
Someones back side ------- joking of course but none the less factual
posted 6 weeks ago
  7 bigken1
Great question Jenni
posted 5 weeks ago
  8 thetexas
Rumors I've been hearing is that Bill is the frontrunner if Obama decides he isn't going to name him to the UN.
posted 5 weeks ago
  9 thetexas
"On Monday, President-elect Barack Obama announced that he asked his former rival to be his secretary of state.

That means the scramble begins to replace Clinton on Capitol Hill. Among those mentioned to take her seat as New York's junior senator is her husband, former President Bill Clinton".
"In an op-ed column last week in The Washington Post, journalists Karl Meyer and Shareen Blair Brysac urged Paterson to "send Bill Clinton to the Senate."

If that happened, Clinton would become the third former president to go from the White House to Capitol Hill".
- CNN http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/01/clinton.replacement/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
posted 5 weeks ago
ok, why not chelsea? now she would make a great junior senator...and could start her political career and pave the way for a clinton to be in the whitehouse in 2016...since momma will be much to old.

........strolls out singing.. me n my shadow...........
posted 5 weeks ago
Bill Clinton not interested in wife's Senate seat

Former President Bill Clinton has no interest in replacing his wife in the U.S. Senate, his spokesman said, adding any speculation that he would be interested is "completely false."

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/02/bill.clinton.senate/
posted 5 weeks ago
He could bring his own chair
posted 5 weeks ago
  14 coolkraft
MSNBC confirms Caroline Kennedy is interested in the NY Senate seat....interesting
posted 4 weeks ago
I love caroline! and will make a wonderful VP choice for 2012 for obama....and great presidential run for 2016..... now that would be historic...
posted 4 weeks ago
  18 coolkraft
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/12/ny_senate_another_kennedy_in_t.html?hpid=artslot

this article is newsworthy for the content of interested parties
posted 4 weeks ago
  19 growthy
Governor David A. Paterson faces a significant challenge in finding a replacement for Hillary Clinton, who is expected to be confirmed as secretary of state in January. Not only is Clinton a hard act to follow, but the job of representing NY State is no easy task.

Have you ever spent time with people from Montauk and Buffalo in the same room? To the residents of Manhattan, Westchester County is upstate! To the residents of Oswego, Brooklyn might as well be another country. New York State contains such geographic, economic, ideological and environmental diversity that balancing the state's concerns can be as tough as balancing the nation's.

http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-opfocus5954329dec07,0,4704818.story
posted 4 weeks ago
  20 coolkraft
@growthy very astute observations
posted 4 weeks ago
Yup NY's a pain in the ass. I say we lease it to Canada.
posted 4 weeks ago
Sources close to the governor (journalistic speak for 'the governor') say odds are no better than 20/1 on Kennedy getting the seat: http://www.nypost.com/seven/12082008/news/columnists/paterson_cool_on_caroline_143173.htm
posted 4 weeks ago
  23 coolkraft
News media (The New York Times) reports Caroline Kennedy will seek Hillary Clinton's senate seat.
posted 3 weeks ago
yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
*Deck the Halls with lots of liberals... Fa laLaLaLa...LaLaLaLa!!!!*
posted 3 weeks ago
  26 frank2877
What's the asking price? I might be interested. :-) Seriously how can they turn down a Kennedy? A stint in the Senate and presto another Kennedy in the White House (the first female president). Carry on the tradition (dynasty) of Jack, Bobby, Teddy and Patrick. Did I miss any? :-)
posted 3 weeks ago
  27 cheesenips
@frank: Jello Biafra
posted 3 weeks ago
  28 coolkraft
If you talk to New Yorkers especially upstate they feel Hillary did nothing for them..she promised jobs and after being elected never delivered nor returned. Her accomplishments were not any great shakes. Caroline, on the other hand, has lived in NY most of her life, is, I believe an attorney which is helpful, could raise oodles of money and endorsed Obama early. That could certainly favor NY if she is senator. Hillary is noticeably silent and I think it would be poetic justice if she replaces her and does a great deal for New York and she would not use it as a stepping stone to Washington.
posted 3 weeks ago
I am envisioning an energetic, passionate Caroline coming on the scene and taking a run for Pres down the road. I far prefer her over HIllary. Of course, I'd probably prefer Fran Drescher over Hillary.
posted 3 weeks ago
  31 thisson
Give us Fran Drescher, please! Anyone but a Kennedy!!!!
posted 2 weeks ago
Awww, C'mon thisson....please not whiny, screechy Fran....
posted 2 weeks ago
  33 thisson
Why not? You can mute the TV when she comes on, and let's face it, she's not so bad to look at!
posted 2 weeks ago
True. I could mute and put the close captioning on....
posted 1 week ago
  35 ironman288
hm, Kennedys, Clintons.. Daly's for that matter. I want to see some actual NEW blood in government, these old families think they own this country. Britain has fewer nobleman than us these days.
posted 1 week ago
  36 frank2877
I think Caroline blew her chance... ya know :-)
posted 1 week ago
Caroline has no experience - she is a contrast with Sarah Palin, who had more experience than all the other candidates combined on both major tickets in the last presidential election. New York is kind of different though - they elected Hillary Clinton, who is not a New Yorker, just moved there from Washington DC. If anything she should have had a seat in Arkansas or Illinois.
posted 1 week ago
  38 mekathleen
Leave Illinois alone. We've already suffered enough from pay-to-play, cronyism and patronage. Let Boston take her.
posted 5 days ago
  39 mekathleen
Does anyone remember when that guy blew $100,000 of his own money to make John McCain look better on the Intrade polls? Looks as if the Caroline Kennedy PR flacks are doing the same here.
posted 5 days ago
  40 Erik
Hillary Clinton is constitutionally ineligible to serve as Secretary of State in the Obama administration. According to the Ineligibility Clause (Article 1 Section 6) of the United States Constitution, no member of Congress can be appointed to an office that has benefited from a salary increase during the time that Senator or Representative served in Congress.
A January 2008 Executive Order signed by President Bush during Hillary Clinton's current Senate term increased the salary for Secretary of State, thereby rendering Senator Clinton ineligible for the position.
posted 4 days ago
  41 destry[Admin]
@Erik. I read that they had rolled the salary increase back so they could get around that clause. All news reports I read state that she will be confirmed without problem.
posted 4 days ago
  42 Erik
  43 dieseldog
erik - the senate rigged cough cough i mean did adjust her salary so she could he SOS.
posted 4 days ago
  44 dieseldog
if she was a republican it would cause an uproar in the MSM. the link you provided says the senate can't do that. i doubt the MSM will persue the issue.
posted 4 days ago
  45 coolkraft
her salary was adjusted by the senate to meet the requirements for secretary of state...get a life and go on to something of interest
posted 4 days ago
  46 dieseldog
ck - why so testy? eric and i didn't say she wasn't gonna be confirmed. if its true what they say in the link provided by eric then the senate's actions doesn't make her eligible. but what the heck break the law its for a democrat. republicans are the only ones who have to play by the rules. :O)
posted 4 days ago
KMA.....gop playing by the rules....what a bloody joke. NONE of em play by any friggin rules. WE sit here fighting amongst ourselves and they all kick back with a few lines and a cosmo and laugh their asses off at our stupidity.
there IS no party of 'pureness'. there is only shifting public perception and the hope it will turn up somewhere.
posted 4 days ago
  48 Erik
Wow....look at the panties getting tied in knots.
destry & diesel....You're correct:
S. J. Res. 46
posted 3 days ago
  50 coolkraft
@dd = republicans play by the rules...best laugh I have had today:)
posted 3 days ago
  51 dieseldog
bush is the greatest president ever! nobama and the dems are the biggest crooks ever!

this message was brought to you by the committee of people who wish dragonfang would return to HD.
posted 3 days ago
  52 curios
hey diesel< what an illogal statement to make, give them a go your r u going on with this stupidity
posted 3 days ago
  53 dieseldog
curios - huh? don't take me as a fool. i'm no fool. wasn't it you that said to lighten up its all tognue in cheek. now crawl back in bed crabby.
posted 3 days ago
  54 mronl
You might want to google The Phoenix Memo before you say GWB was the greatest Pres. He did not keep us safe. He blew just about everything...
posted 2 days ago
Wow that was a great link, dd!

Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY): Let's start with the fact that Hillary Clinton is constitutionally ineligible to serve as Secretary of State in the Obama administration. According to the Ineligibility Clause of the United States Constitution, no member of Congress can be appointed to an office that has benefited from a salary increase during the time that Senator or Representative served in Congress. A January 2008 Executive Order signed by President Bush during Hillary Clinton's current Senate term increased the salary for Secretary of State, thereby rendering Senator Clinton ineligible for the position. (Congressional "fixes" do not address the constitutional issue. Her appointment would be in violation of the U.S. Constitution.) And then, of course, there is the long history of corrupt behavior that follows Hillary wherever she goes, including Chinagate, Filegate, pardons for terrorists, pardons for cash (for her brothers), White House fundraising coffees, Whitewater, Travelgate lies, doing business with the State of Arkansas while her husband was governor, Web Hubbell, smear campaigns, false financial disclosure forms, John Huang, Chinese generals, the Lippo Group, paid sleepovers in the Lincoln Bedroom, cattle futures fraud, and stealing White House furniture. (This corruption is still going strong. In 2008, Hillary also received an illegal foreign campaign contribution in the form of a fundraising concert by music icon Elton John.)
posted 2 days ago
Good stuff. Hillary is ineligible to be Secretary of State. Now if we could just see Obama's original birth certificate.
posted 2 days ago
  57 frogchop
Hmmm, I've reviewed the eligibility clause of the US constitution and I can't see what you're talking about. Go to the original source http://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/constitution.articlei.html#section6 not some biased website with an axe to grind if you want the truth. Besides, don't you think Obama would have looked into this a long time ago if there were concerns? What about the other appointees from the senate? Seems like a witch hunt to me.
posted 2 days ago
I went to that site actually. I don't understand how you can't see that she is ineligible. Are you illiterate?

From the link provided:
"No Senator or Representative shall, during the time for which he was elected, be appointed to any civil office under the authority of the United States, which shall have been created, or the emoluments whereof shall have been increased during such time"
posted 1 day ago
  59 lola
SHOCK POLL: Kennedy Trailing Cuomo Huge
Public Policy Polling Shows Princess Of Camelot Losing Grip On New Yorkers, Falls Behind 20 Points Among Dems

NEW YORK (CBS) Caroline Kennedy appears to be losing momentum in her bid for Hillary Clinton's U.S. Senate seat. A new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling shows 58 percent of voters would prefer to see Gov. David Paterson appoint state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to the seat. That's compared to Kennedy's 27 percent.

Among Democratic voters, Cuomo leads by about 20 points. That's about the same lead Kennedy enjoyed just a month earlier. This revelation seems to fly in the face of various reports that have surfaced since the calendar turned to 2009. Sources close to Gov. Paterson have said repeatedly that Kennedy is close to being named as Clinton's successor. Paterson has said the search is ongoing, but on New Year's Day he cautioned everyone vying for the position by saying whoever is chosen to replace Clinton will have to earn re-election in 2010 on his or her own merits.

http://wcbstv.com/politics/caroline.kennedy.us.2.900585.html
posted 1 day ago

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