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WILL Conrad Black win his appeal for release ?

Current forecast: 16% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 16% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Former media tycoon Conrad Black is appealing to US President George W Bush to commute his prison sentence for fraud and obstruction of justice.

Black, a Canadian-born member of the UK's House of Lords, has been in prison since March, serving a sentence of six and a half years.

The US justice department confirmed it had received the appeal and said it would be considered in the normal way.

Mr Bush has the power to issue a pardon and reduce a prison sentence or fine.

The US Pardon Attorney, Ronald Rogers, will investigate and review the appeal, and make recommendations to the president.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7743069.stm


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
16%
No
84%
Activity: H$27,505
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Sat 7th Feb 7:59am PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sun 23rd Nov 2008 5:31am PST by curios

Suspend date: Sat 7th Feb 7:59am PST (4 weeks to go)
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Predictions (32)

32 predictions

3 days ago
ollieg predicted Yes (H$20 at 16%)
4 days ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted No (H$5,000 at 82%)
5 weeks ago
timbolondon predicted No (H$100 at 69%)
5 weeks ago
deanemj predicted No (H$250 at 65%)
5 weeks ago
havanagold predicted No (H$20 at 65%)
more

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