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Who will be the Democratic VP candidate in 2012?

Current forecast: Joe Biden (73% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Joe Biden with a probability of 73% (unchanged in last 1 day)

In 2008 the Democratic VP nominee and winner was Joe Biden, the running mate of Barack Obama. In 2012, will Joe Biden still be Obama's running mate? Some have conjectured that Hillary Clinton may have taken the job of Secretary of State only after getting the off-the-record promise that she'd be Obama's running mate in 2012. There's also the (remote) possibility that someone else will be at the top of the ticket, with Obama as the VP.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. This will be settled whenever the Democratic VP nominee is officially announced, presumably in the weeks before the 2012 Democratic convention.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Joe Biden
73%
Hillary Clinton
22%
Barack Obama
1%
Sarah Palin
1%
Someone else
4%
Activity: H$8,923
Question suspends in 3 years

Suspend date: Thu 1st Nov 2012 4:59pm PDT (3 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Joe Biden: 70%, Hillary Clinton: 27%, Barack Obama: 1%, Sarah Palin: 1%, Someone else: 1%

Action history:

Created Sun 23rd Nov 2008 10pm PST by neuronexmachina

Suspend date: Thu 1st Nov 2012 4:59pm PDT (3 years to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (35)

35 predictions

3 weeks ago
greyarea predicted Hillary Clinton (H$10 at 21%)
4 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted Joe Biden (H$400 at 72%)
5 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Someone else (H$100 at 5%)
6 weeks ago
hippyboomer predicted Someone else (H$100 at 3%)
6 weeks ago
camicalm predicted Joe Biden (H$100 at 78%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 onedave[Power User]
I would really be surprised if it was Sarah Palin.
posted 6 weeks ago
Btw, would any of the people responding "someone else" care to mention who they might have in mind?
posted 6 weeks ago

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