horatiomonty
Will Bastian Schweinsteiger leave Bayern Munich?
According to Sport Informations-Dienstes (sic), the German international will extend his stay at the Allianz Arena until 30 June 2012.
http://www.goal.com/en/news/0/general/0001/01/01/1005734/title-not-present
First reports appear to have been out around 10:00am EST, which will be the cut-off for late wagers
Schweinsteiger set for Bayern Munich contract renewal
EARTHtimes.org - 2 hours, 35 minutes ago
Background:
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Has not left by 7 August |
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Leaves during rest of the season (until 7 August) |
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He will leave during winter break |
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He will leave before winter break |
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Suspend date: Sun 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT (29 weeks to go) Settlement date: Wed 10th Dec 2008 9:41am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 10th Dec 2008 7am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Has not left by 7 August : 25%, Leaves during rest of the season (until 7 August) : 50%, He will leave during winter break: 24%, He will leave before winter break: 1%
Action history:
horatiomonty 
bernardo
: He signed a new contract, according to "Sport Informations Dienst" (sid). Some of the last bets should be refunded.
http://www.goal.com/en/news/0/general/0001/01/01/1005734/title-not-present
mrperfkt![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: According to Sport Informations-Dienstes (sic), the German international will extend his stay at the Allianz Arena until 30 June 2012.
http://www.goal.com/en/news/0/general/0001/01/01/1005734/title-not-present
First reports appear to have been out around 10:00am EST, which will be the cut-off for late wagers
Schweinsteiger set for Bayern Munich contract renewal
EARTHtimes.org - 2 hours, 35 minutes ago
Suspend date: Sun 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT (29 weeks to go) Settlement date: Wed 10th Dec 2008 9:41am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 10th Dec 2008 7am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (20)
20 predictions
kruijs![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Has not left by 7 August (H$1,000 at 34%)
jhouseholder
predicted Leaves during rest of the season (until 7 August) (H$3 at 48%)
growthy
predicted Has not left by 7 August (H$100 at 27%)
monsti88
predicted Has not left by 7 August (H$20 at 26%)Comments (3)
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Is it that with the second he has announced his intention to leave during the season even though he does not leave until the end?
What I meant for the first option is: "He will not leave AFTER this season" and maybe this should better be "He will not leave during the next summer break". The second option would then be "He will leave during summer break".
I moreover learnt now that the next season will start on 7th August 2009, so should he leave after the end of the current season but before that date, this should settle as "He will leave during summer break". Suspend date should therefore also be amended to August 7th 2009.
so 4 options:
Leave before winter break
Leave during winter break
Leave during rest of the season until 7th August 2009.
Not left by 7th August 2009.
Sorry for the confusion. Any chance of amending this?
@predictors - Let me know if this significantly changes your predictions.
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