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Who will win Israeli general elections in February 2009?

Current forecast: Binyamin (Bibi) Netnayahu - Likud (46% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Binyamin (Bibi) Netnayahu - Likud with a probability of 46% (unchanged in last 1 day)

in February, a general elections will be held in Israel with 3 major nominees who lead the biggest parties: Likud, Kadima and Havoda


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
the one who wins will be the one who manages to form a goverment under his command and not the leader of the biggest party.

 
Forecast history, %
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Zippi Livni - Kadima
40%
Binyamin (Bibi) Netnayahu - Likud
46%
Ehud Barak - Avoda
14%
Activity: H$12,855
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 10th Feb 1:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Zippi Livni - Kadima: 40%, Binyamin (Bibi) Netnayahu - Likud: 40%, Ehud Barak - Avoda: 20%

Action history:

Created Mon 24th Nov 2008 9:48am PST by zusiman

Suspend date: Tue 10th Feb 1:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
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Predictions (19)

19 predictions

1 day ago
sinai1234 predicted Binyamin (Bibi) Netnayahu - Likud (H$20 at 46%)
6 days ago
ravidor predicted Binyamin (Bibi) Netnayahu - Likud (H$100 at 45%)
1 week ago
rogi predicted Binyamin (Bibi) Netnayahu - Likud (H$100 at 45%)
1 week ago
yellowbiz predicted Binyamin (Bibi) Netnayahu - Likud (H$100 at 44%)
1 week ago
doritgsb predicted Binyamin (Bibi) Netnayahu - Likud (H$100 at 43%)
more

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