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Will the Harvard proposal of allowing developing countries to maintain carbon emissions be adopted?

Background: Rich nations should make the first cuts in greenhouse gases while developing countries carry on business as usual for the time being, according to a plan set out on Monday by a Harvard University project.

This is one of four proposals by the American university's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs to negotiators who meet for U.N. climate talks next week in Poland.

The current climate pact, the Kyoto Protocol, expires in 2012 and governments are scrambling to agree a new treaty by the end of next year.

"The new agreement should be scientifically sound, economically rational and politically pragmatic," Professor Robert Stavins of the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements said.

The Harvard report calls on rich nations to lead in cutting emissions, while developing countries can "maintain their business-as-usual emissions in the first decades, but over the longer term agree to binding targets that ultimately reduce emissions below business as usual."

Read full story here.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. The relevant issue that needs to be adopted is proposal 1 Proposal No. 1:
"One proposed framework argues that a new international climate agreement should establish a global cap-and-trade system, where the emissions caps are determined using a set of formulas. These formulas take into account a variety of economic factors, including GDP and economic growth rates, such that a country's annual cap may change over time, rather than being set as an absolute quantity of emissions for the duration of the agreement. The result, it is hoped, is that every country will feel it is only doing its fair share."
If no news by suspend date, question will settle as no.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
21%
No
79%
Question suspends in 4 days

Suspend date: Wed 25th Nov 11:59pm PST (4 days to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 70%

Action history:

Created Mon 24th Nov 2008 7:31pm PST by tisha[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 25th Nov 11:59pm PST (4 days to go) details

 

Predictions (19)

3 days ago
thecrazycanuck predicted No (H$1,000 at 78%)
2 weeks ago
tkui predicted Yes (H$50 at 37%)
3 weeks ago
arnos predicted No (H$100 at 40%)
3 weeks ago
sailfurther predicted No (H$10 at 40%)
9 weeks ago
frogchop predicted No (H$1,000 at 38%)

Comments (8)

With a disastrously faltering global economy, it doesn't seem likely that developed nations will agree to emissions caps that slow or prevent economic recovery. Further, letting third world countries go on with fewer (or no) restrictions would be like rubbing salt in the wound. This is an excellent question, but current realities dictate that the answer will be NO.
posted 51 weeks ago
  2 deanthoreau
u mean developed nations like the US....and the US actually reducing carbon emissions? and since the USA is the greatest carbon emitter..why doesnt the UN just tell the USA u have 3 years...enuf is enuf? But instead they will deciede aobut poor countries...
am i the only one disturbed by this?
I mean how many hummers are the people in developing nations driving anyway?
posted 47 weeks ago
No, you are not the only one disturbed by the out-of-control enviro-fascist movement
posted 47 weeks ago
No kidding - you have thugs, criminals, terrorists, and comunists agreeing about one thing - the world is going to end in 10 years, 9 years, 8 years, 7 years, 6 years, well some time in the future, unless we can tax the rich people & then it might be ok.
posted 47 weeks ago
  5 dieseldog
UN = Fum Duckers. i don't want them telling me what to do. :O)
posted 47 weeks ago
  6 kruijs[Power User]
the funny thing is: it's china since '07
http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSL2272661220070323

but that doesn't matter as long as there still are people who just close their eyes.
and as long as the rich are actually responsible for the world to end, and as long as the rich are actually the only ones which can effort to make a change, then I think to tax the rich people (although nobody ever proposed that) is not the worst idea.

the cheapest way for the industry to produce is without taking care of the environment at all.
here a few impressions: http://images.google.ch/images?q=environmental%20pollution
regardless of such global and hard to imagine effects like climate change - do you want to have such a neighborhood? or would you rather prefer these
http://images.google.ch/images?q=usa+landscape
posted 47 weeks ago
23 Illinois Associations to hold Springfield rally against Cap & Trade Bill
http://www.examiner.com/x-21037-Illinois-Statehouse-Examiner~y2009m8d30-23-Illinois-Associations-to-hold-Springfield-rally-against-Cap--Trade-Bill?cid=exrss-Illinois-Statehouse-Examiner
The headline is simple "Climate Change Legislation being considered in Washington will cause Illinois Consumers huge economic pain".

On September 1st, Energy Citizens, the combined efforts of 23 Illinois farm, industrial, retail and energy associations will host a rally in opposition to proposed Cap & Trade legislation at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Illinois' capital city, Springfield.

The rally is designed to bring public awareness to cap and trade legislation that will cost an estimated 2 million high paying American jobs, raise gasoline and diesel prices, raise electric rates and reduce global competitiveness of American companies. The groups intent is to point out the widespread opposition to cap and trade legislation that will damage the agricultural, manufacturing, retail, energy and transportation industries of Illinois which provide the foundation of Illinois' economy.
[More at the link...]
posted 11 weeks ago
  8 frogchop
The real costs: http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/09/15/taking_liberties/entry5314040.shtml?tag=pop

Well, that which they don't redact.
posted 9 weeks ago

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